wxmanmitch Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 I definitely like the potential for a period of upslope snow showers and squalls on the backside of the upcoming cutter with the arctic frontal passage Monday morning into the early afternoon. There could be some accumulation along with a sudden flash freeze for the western slopes of the Berkshires/Greens and Taconics as the models seems to suggest some QPF will fall after the cold arrives. As always, these events are hard to predict in advance, but I think someone could get a few inches out of this on Monday. Significant snow is possible in the northern Greens where a longer duration upslope event is more likely as the low moves north into Canada, stalls and becomes vertically stacked. After the initial batch of upslope with the shock CAA, lake effect leftovers could continue impact the western slopes with occasional snow showers through Tuesday providing some localized additional accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 So 3 straight below normal months all with a raging hard +NAO. Pacific rules Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 I definitely like the potential for a period of upslope snow showers and squalls on the backside of the upcoming cutter with the arctic frontal passage Monday morning into the early afternoon. There could be some accumulation along with a sudden flash freeze for the western slopes of the Berkshires/Greens and Taconics as the models seems to suggest some QPF will fall after the cold arrives. As always, these events are hard to predict in advance, but I think someone could get a few inches out of this on Monday. Significant snow is possible in the northern Greens where a longer duration upslope event is more likely as the low moves north into Canada, stalls and becomes vertically stacked. After the initial batch of upslope with the shock CAA, lake effect leftovers could continue impact the western slopes with occasional snow showers through Tuesday providing some localized additional accumulations. old fashioned style Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 old fashioned style PF will get slammed the next few days. First with the CAA type upslope and then with lake effect moisture on a W wind ramming up against the Greens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 PF will get slammed the next few days. First with the CAA type upslope and then with lake effect moisture on a W wind ramming up against the Greens.he is expecting nothing and 1-3 rainstorms lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 he is expecting nothing and 1-3 rainstorms lol If u tortured him at gun point he would cave and say "well this mountain always performs and will prob squeeze out 2-3 feet at 3k" in next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Ot but i just saw a bluish green meteor looking se in milton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 My Davis mentioned a quadrantid meteor earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ono Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 If u tortured him at gun point he would cave and say "well this mountain always performs and will prob squeeze out 2-3 feet at 3k" in next week one's job may have some influence on what they post online. Then again, you head 30 miles north, and a certain resort's management seems to encourage permi-bullish snowfall forecasts. Go figure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 one's job may have some influence on what they post online. Then again, you head 30 miles north, and a certain resort's management seems to encourage permi-bullish snowfall forecasts. Go figure. Lol why would he mention 1-3 rainstorm if he was worried about work, we kid but he did say that this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Watching that batch of convection in Fl, that could be icy trouble for the far interior. GGEM has quite the extended ice for some NNE areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Freezing drizzle this afternoon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 he is expecting nothing and 1-3 rainstorms lol lol. I'm not really seeing it with the CAA and upslope with the one. The flow comes WSW pretty quickly and if comparing the mid level features to climo upslope locations it's sort of in the "snow shower" area but not overly well developed. I will say the WSW flow has potential for someone from Killington northward, as it will depend on where the Lake Ontario band goes. A narrow area may do quite well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Lol why would he mention 1-3 rainstorm if he was worried about work, we kid but he did say that this morning. If you go back and look at the quote it was what the GFS run yesterday at 00z had verbatim. I hate this stuff because it's ok to post that a model has oodles of snow and cold, but you state that a model has 1-3 rainstorms in the pipeline and all the sudden you are forecasting it, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Lol why would he mention 1-3 rainstorm if he was worried about work, we kid but he did say that this morning.This was the post, Ginxy... VERBATIM model runs. How do you interpret this post as a forecast or what I think? I guess I'll be more clear and have the word verbatim in the post next time And then looks like we get 1-3 rainstorms in the week following on GFS and GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 2.9 here sucks that its going to rain tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Freezing drizzle this afternoon? Maybe it'll ice up the snowpack to help preserve it, off to a 7:00 am soccer game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 never would have guessed kcef would go below zero this morning they are now at -2 should warm up quick later though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 This was the post, Ginxy... VERBATIM model runs. How do you interpret this post as a forecast or what I think? I guess I'll be more clear and have the word verbatim in the post next time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 off topic but I just looked at the webcam for stanley park in westfield ma and ive never seen so many ducks there in my life!! Scroll down to the last image.. Wonder if the cold has something to do with it and the only open water around? http://www.stanleypark.org/page/stanley-park-live Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Haha well played. I just woke up to some posts about me calling for multiple rainstorms...got me going early. Can always expect you to bring us back to earth lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Haha well played. I just woke up to some posts about me calling for multiple rainstorms...got me going early. Can always expect you to bring us back to earth lol. Just goes to show the comprehension problem this board has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 PF will get slammed the next few days. First with the CAA type upslope and then with lake effect moisture on a W wind ramming up against the Greens. If u tortured him at gun point he would cave and say "well this mountain always performs and will prob squeeze out 2-3 feet at 3k" in next week Well meteorologically speaking here's why I'm not expecting a widespread upslope response that's really anything noteworthy... As the front comes through, models have a very sharp decrease in moisture as the cold air moves in... even with strong cross-barrier flow, there's nothing here that really indicates we'll just change over to steady accumulating snow with that dry air punch in the CAA behind the front: So we go 6 hours later...still pretty dry overall, and the H85/H7/H5 lows (while stacked) are so far north, and well out of the climo range for significant or noteworthy upslope snows here. What should happen is a developing Lake Ontario band though... that could feed some H85 moisture into the Greens, but it should be a narrow band as usually is per these set-ups. Someone may get lucky, but I wouldn't really call that being able to forecast accumulating snows for the Greens. Maybe someone gets up to 4" while most others are dusting-1"? We'll roll it forward again 6 hours... and still looking like its mostly a Lake Ontario band, and not as much upslope, though again, someone may get lucky if it stretches all the way to the Greens. But it just doesn't look like an upslope event in the sense that a band of snow forms north-to-south along the Greens. It looks more like a Lake Effect event that may be able to drop a few localized fluffy inches in a narrow 10 mile wide band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Powderfreak, I may be u at Stowe this Friday or Saturday, do you see the squeezing anything decent out of the Thurs or Sat system? I could see some light snow... maybe a 1-3" type event. At least by then, grooming and snowmaking will have been able to work the magic again... I'd expect conditions to be decent on groomed terrain again. But that's sort of how its gone...mountains can work modern mavels on snowmaking/grooming trails pretty quickly, but like the old days, there's still nothing you can do about glades or more rugged natural terrain. That system has been all over the place on guidance though later in the week, looks light for the most part, but that'll need another day or two to really start to get an idea on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Just goes to show the comprehension problem this board has. Maybe its all in jest, but by the end of that convo it was reading with a tone like I said it would never snow again and that we should start building arks.... all from one post commenting on last night's 00z GFS and GGEM models, haha. Gotta nip that stuff in the butt quickly or else in two weeks someone will be going "remember when you said it would rain 5 times in January..." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Ice on the south coast perhaps. Especially away from immediate coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Well meteorologically speaking here's why I'm not expecting a widespread upslope response that's really anything noteworthy... As the front comes through, models have a very sharp decrease in moisture as the cold air moves in... even with strong cross-barrier flow, there's nothing here that really indicates we'll just change over to steady accumulating snow with that dry air punch in the CAA behind the front: So we go 6 hours later...still pretty dry overall, and the H85/H7/H5 lows (while stacked) are so far north, and well out of the climo range for significant or noteworthy upslope snows here. What should happen is a developing Lake Ontario band though... that could feed some H85 moisture into the Greens, but it should be a narrow band as usually is per these set-ups. Someone may get lucky, but I wouldn't really call that being able to forecast accumulating snows for the Greens. Maybe someone gets up to 4" while most others are dusting-1"? We'll roll it forward again 6 hours... and still looking like its mostly a Lake Ontario band, and not as much upslope, though again, someone may get lucky if it stretches all the way to the Greens. But it just doesn't look like an upslope event in the sense that a band of snow forms north-to-south along the Greens. It looks more like a Lake Effect event that may be able to drop a few localized fluffy inches in a narrow 10 mile wide band. Thanks for this post. I learned a lot from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Ice on the south coast perhaps. Especially away from immediate coast. Yup... -FZRA across almost all of Long Island now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Ice on the south coast perhaps. Especially away from immediate coast.Now?Totally clear inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Now? Totally clear inland Look to your south. Clouds movinhg north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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