ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Well you said even places that only got 4 inches wouldn't lose their snowcover..so I know I'll still have some..but there's always a worry.. Yes I stand by that...but I do not think there is some magical difference between 46F and 50F....there isn't. If you lose it at 50F, you'll also lose it at 46F in those low snow cover areas. There is going to be some stubborn CAD for a time in this...so you'll likely escape with full cover. I'd feel better though the further northeast you are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 I just have abad feeling for the rest of this month. Things look about as bleak as they have in some time Well we will go through a thaw for sure, but I feel relatively good about a reload. I would like to see this inside day 10 to get a better feeling...but I think confidence is increasing on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Sorry I guess I'm just down about the upcoming pattern . I think at the least this upcoming warmth will stop the 93-94 talk since there wasn't such an extended torch . Maybe we can at least get an event on Thursday/ Friday before it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 I just have abad feeling for the rest of this month. Things look about as bleak as they have in some time You do this every year without fail everytime we have a warm period, get over anxious about something you can't control. Go roll around in the snow tonight, make a snow angel or have a snowball fight. It's 99% likely that the snowcover will be gone by monday night, but it's only January 4th and it's a 100% certaintity that we'll have more snow again this winter, especially with this very active pattern we are in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Sorry I guess I'm just down about the upcoming pattern . I think at the least this upcoming warmth will stop the 93-94 talk since there wasn't such an extended torch . Maybe we can at least get an event on Thursday/ Friday before it Feb '94 had like a 5-6 day furnace. Granted the rest of Jan/Feb was pretty brutal. I doubt we match those numbers, but that winter did have a strong thaw that lasted almost a week. I don't think we are going to blowtorch though in the sense of like 55F for several days. To me its more like some low 40s type days (with the torch spots maybe tickling 50F on downslope dandy days) with perhaps a warmer day mixed in if things break "right". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Well one big positive is that the PV remains on our side of the pole. That should allow for more brutal shots coming down into the CONUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Feb '94 had like a 5-6 day furnace. Granted the rest of Jan/Feb was pretty brutal. I doubt we match those numbers, but that winter did have a strong thaw that lasted almost a week. I don't think we are going to blowtorch though in the sense of like 55F for several days. To me its more like some low 40s type days (with the torch spots maybe tickling 50F on downslope dandy days) with perhaps a warmer day mixed in if things break "right". Oh I was envisioning like a week of 50's and kids out riding bikes. That's not bad I suppose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Oh I was envisioning like a week of 50's and kids out riding bikes. That's not bad I suppose Nobody said that..lol. Sometimes I wonder what you think sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Does that FZ advisory get expanded at all? It seems awfully cold at the surface; will it really scour out that quickly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 I just have abad feeling for the rest of this month. Things look about as bleak as they have in some timelol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Feb '94 had like a 5-6 day furnace. Granted the rest of Jan/Feb was pretty brutal. I doubt we match those numbers, but that winter did have a strong thaw that lasted almost a week. I don't think we are going to blowtorch though in the sense of like 55F for several days. To me its more like some low 40s type days (with the torch spots maybe tickling 50F on downslope dandy days) with perhaps a warmer day mixed in if things break "right". exactly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Nobody said that..lol. Sometimes I wonder what you think sometimes.When I hear the words torch or much above for a week or more I assume that's what it means. A few days in the low 40's is totally different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 When I hear the words torch or much above for a week or more I assume that's what it means. A few days in the low 40's is totally differentWhere and who said those exact words? All I saw was mention of above normal with a possible cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Where and who said those exact words? All I saw was mention of above normal with a possible cutter.I honestly don't know said it , but I've seen it on here and other social media being tossed around. Not to say it'll happen but it's certainly been tossed around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 You do this every year without fail everytime we have a warm period, get over anxious about something you can't control. Go roll around in the snow tonight, make a snow angel or have a snowball fight. It's 99% likely that the snowcover will be gone by monday night, but it's only January 4th and it's a 100% certaintity that we'll have more snow again this winter, especially with this very active pattern we are in.I will take the 1% that Kev has snow cover. Skiing is fine and a 12 hour above normal is not a hit, well maybe for the powder snobs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 When I hear the words torch or much above for a week or more I assume that's what it means. A few days in the low 40's is totally different It won't be an all out furnace the whole time...but looks mild with a cutter possibly thrown in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 When I hear the words torch or much above for a week or more I assume that's what it means. A few days in the low 40's is totally different Low 40s is like a +10 over the interior...so that is definitely well above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 I honestly don't know said it , but I've seen it on here and other social media being tossed around. Not to say it'll happen but it's certainly been tossed aroundCertainly not burly men in tank tops at your rest stop weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Did all 4 climo sites finish Dec below normal? I know BOS was close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Low 40s is like a +10 over the interior...so that is definitely well above normal.nights in the 20s, sounds like a classic Jan thaw, restock, reload. Perfect weather to really enjoy the snow up north. Today was fantastic sledding in the sun. Roads got squirrelly at dark though. Hot chili after a day outside in the cold FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Did all 4 climo sites finish Dec below normal? I know BOS was closeyes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Did all 4 climo sites finish Dec below normal? I know BOS was close BOS: -1.4F ORH: -1.8F BDL: -1.2F PVD: -1.0F BDR: -0.4F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 I will take the 1% that Kev has snow cover. Skiing is fine and a 12 hour above normal is not a hit, well maybe for the powder snobs. I am not sure that much of this snow remains, not if the NWS is right and we get into the upper 40's with moderate amounts of rain. This is a hit for skiing, maybe only for surface conditions, but it's a hit. At least it's coming after the Christmas break is over so it does not affect that revenue period for the ski areas. Hopfully Magic makes it through okay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 BOS: -1.4F ORH: -1.8F BDL: -1.2F PVD: -1.0F BDR: -0.4F The departures in Maine were sick especially with their climo. Nice to see 20+ inch cover up there, we are set up for a great rest of winter. Cold on our side, STJ active, hints at blocking setting up. Bully Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 The departures in Maine were sick especially with their climo. Nice to see 20+ inch cover up there, we are set up for a great rest of winter. Cold on our side, STJ active, hints at blocking setting up. Bully Yeah it got cold quick as you went north...esp NE. CON: -3.3F GYX: -5.5F BGR: -5.8F FVE: -6.2F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 So we have a fair chance of 3 months in a row of BN at all 4. Now THAT would be impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 So we have a fair chance of 3 months in a row of BN at all 4. Now THAT would be impressive. Fair chance, but no lockI would even say less than 50% of all 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 . Fair chance, but no lock I would even say less than 50% of all 4 I would actually say the opposite...all 4 sites have built up huge negatives...while we get a little torch here, we add more monster negatives after that before our 1 week thaw which doesn't look all that impressive as far as thaws go. Just pretty mundane. I think the odds of erasing the negatives we build up by the end of next week are well under 50%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 I would actually say the opposite...all 4 sites have built up huge negatives...while we get a little torch here, we add more monster negatives after that before our 1 week thaw which doesn't look all that impressive as far as thaws go. Just pretty mundane. I think the odds of erasing the negatives we build up by the end of next week are well under 50%. I would agree as well....especially if the ensembles are correct. This may end up being an icebox for ORD-MSP...etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 I would agree as well....especially if the ensembles are correct. This may end up being an icebox for ORD-MSP...etc.There's your cold source, yum, going to continue to be NB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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