moneypitmike Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 It will be a flash freeze here, or close to it. Maybe a little post frontal snow, but I guess hopes are fading there. LES will kick initially north. Yeah--I thought a flash freeze might be in the cards, but like I said above, I'm not sure how quickly the lower levels will cool. With regard to the LES, I'd think those would kick into high gear for a while--provided the lakes aren't too frozen yet. GFS is looking slower? How'd you wind up with the snow the other day? You looked to be in a great spot all day out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Not sure about open water, but lots of watches going up off Lake Ontario so must be thinking a big event. More north here, but with time something sweeps down as winds veer. I put it down as 11.5" yesterday. There were places barely north and especially west who reported 14-16", but I didn't see that much. ALB (the weather service) had 11.8'. Yeah--I thought a flash freeze might be in the cards, but like I said above, I'm not sure how quickly the lower levels will cool. With regard to the LES, I'd think those would kick into high gear for a while--provided the lakes aren't too frozen yet. GFS is looking slower? How'd you wind up with the snow the other day? You looked to be in a great spot all day out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Lake Ontario usually stays quite open other than the shoreline areas and bays....it's deeper. It is Lake Erie that can freeze over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 There's still quite a bit of moisture flux over the Lakes when they're partially frozen too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Lake Ontario usually stays quite open other than the shoreline areas and bays....it's deeper. It is Lake Erie that can freeze over. Grew up in Buffalo and I can say that Erie definitely freezes over and Buffalo's monthly snowfall averages reflects that. I recall most of the major LES events happening in November through January. Once February hit, snow typically would come more from synoptic systems. I looked at the ice cover about 10 days ago and then again today, and there has been a significant increase in ice coverage over that time. Not surprising given the recent cold spell. http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs/glcfs.php?hr=00&ext=ice&type=N&lake=l Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Hows our torch lookin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Hows our torch lookin NAM brings the Low just west of Buffalo. Pretty warm here. batch of precip drenches us... 0.75" qpf? That is the 18z NAM 12z GFS is a little east but still a cutter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 It won't be that warm at all across nrn MA and near ORH on north. Pretty good CAD signal. Maybe briefly ahead of front it jumps..but the worst torch is reserved for the usual areas that get it when lows go west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 It won't be that warm at all across nrn MA and near ORH on north. Pretty good CAD signal. Maybe briefly ahead of front it jumps..but the worst torch is reserved for the usual areas that get it when lows go west. Beware the warm tongue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Beware the warm tongue Meh, it won't be much up by you I don't think. At least in terms of how long it lasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Meh, it won't be much up by you I don't think. At least in terms of how long it lasts. Should be rather short duration warmth... 12 hours of ick... also hoping to factor in NAM's tendency to overdo qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 4, 2014 Author Share Posted January 4, 2014 It won't be that warm at all across nrn MA and near ORH on north. Pretty good CAD signal. Maybe briefly ahead of front it jumps..but the worst torch is reserved for the usual areas that get it when lows go west. Doesn't it suck to post essentially the same statement, over and over again for a day and half, then to drop by the forum and see that it has yet sink it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 And Happy New Year to you, too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 4, 2014 Author Share Posted January 4, 2014 And Happy New Year to you, too... ahaha -- j/k teasin' It's really aimed at Scott because regardless of why ... I have seen him make this statement more than a handful of times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 It won't be that warm at all across nrn MA and near ORH on north. Pretty good CAD signal. Maybe briefly ahead of front it jumps..but the worst torch is reserved for the usual areas that get it when lows go west.Which is where? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Which is where? You will tickle the 50s I think for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 You will tickle the 50s I think for a time.What?Wiped out then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Even I will see some 40s on Monday either pre or immediately post frontal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 I'm expecting heavy heavy mud here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Ryan only had 47 at BDL and then falling as soon as front moves thru. I'm going to take the under on 50's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Ryan only had 47 at BDL and then falling as soon as front moves thru. I'm going to take the under on 50's 49, 52...WHAT IS THE DIFFERENCE. It will be mild for a time, but it does not last long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Visions of iced Stop n Shop parking lots from water having no whrte to go because of poor drainage and snobby snow piles still standing proudly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 4, 2014 Author Share Posted January 4, 2014 Well NWS did go ahead with the ZR advisory for a light glaze in the interior up here. I wonder if one of these will actually succeed this time. Last ...few of them actually, ended up 33.1 light rainers. I'm less interested in if that verifies, though, and more so if I am right about the warm air not really getting here. I still think it is possible the frontal/wave translation out paces the ability to remove the lowest thickness interval.. .Temp may actually spike behind the front for like 10 minutes before sharply cooling back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 49, 52...WHAT IS THE DIFFERENCE. It will be mild for a time, but it does not last long. Yeah it looks like rain and 40-45F temperatures well up into Northern New england. Yet another hit for ski areas up north. Hopefully not much snow loss though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Well NWS did go ahead with the ZR advisory for a light glaze in the interior up here. I wonder if one of these will actually succeed this time. Last ...few of them actually, ended up 33.1 light rainers. I'm less interested in if that verifies, though, and more so if I am right about the warm air not really getting here. I still think it is possible the frontal/wave translation out paces the ability to remove the lowest thickness interval.. .Temp may actually spike behind the front for like 10 minutes before sharply cooling back. Hope you're right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Hope you're right Stop worrying. You have no control over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 49, 52...WHAT IS THE DIFFERENCE. It will be mild for a time, but it does not last long. LOL Yeah I don't get Kevin's obsession with "being wiped out" if he tickles 50F verus being fine is he only hits 45F. There's like no difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Stop worrying. You have no control over it. I just have abad feeling for the rest of this month. Things look about as bleak as they have in some time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 LOL Yeah I don't get Kevin's obsession with "being wiped out" if he tickles 50F verus being fine is he only hits 45F. There's like no difference. Well you said even places that only got 4 inches wouldn't lose their snowcover..so I know I'll still have some..but there's always a worry.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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