Ginx snewx Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 It's the Nam. It's got rain flashing to snow from w to e on Mondayso does the GFS, that ULL is sick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 4, 2014 Author Share Posted January 4, 2014 Interesting shortwave on the Day 8 GFS today, its definitely not a good setup for snow down my way, but it looks like it would evolve into something pretty ominous for you guys up there. Tip would be excited to see this I think... tip.gif Haven't seen the Euro members but several amid the GEFs like transporting a wave in that time frame of similar ilk, so it may be worth watching. Also, the PNA is frantic in the progs at CDC. Less so at CPC, but both still show oscillating index values from below to above 0 SD. Each time it spikes, there ..perhaps equal probabilities for ridge expression in western N/A, which does prone the east for trough migration/amplitude. There is in fact a stronger rise in the index D7-10 per last night's run... Worth keeping an eye to that time period imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 4, 2014 Author Share Posted January 4, 2014 00z NAM so aggressive with warmth it actually drills negative LI's to BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 00z NAM so aggressive with warmth it actually drills negative LI's to BOS.LI's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 LI's?lifted index, instability Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 this 0z nam seems to just have light showers instead of a moderate rain advertised on other models and even recent nam runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 LI's? Long Island Iced Teas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 BOX's AFD hints that perhaps some type of zr advisory might be necessary. I'm reading it as a slippery roads situation, not any ty.pe of accretion issue. But, it is nice to see them talk of a flip to snow with a coating to an inch. Perhaps that'll translate higher in some areas (ahem), but either way will help mask whatever damage the rains do. I tell you what though, if the snow falls on flash-frozen roads that could make for some slick conditions. Harkens back to whatever date that was around 2004/5. Driving hell in ORH during the morning commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Models have what Looks like about an inch of snow from west to east Monday as rain quickly flashes over to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Nothing substantial on the back end of this cutter here in the models, and no chance at a big snow anytime soon. It looks like those of us up here will remain below normal in snow for a little while. Still looking for our big ticket item. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Not finding much support for accumulating snow on the backside...except the 2,000ft+ elevations. All models I've looked at this morning may change over to a wet -SN/--SN at the end in the lower elevations (below 2,000ft), but the surface cold lags a good bit behind the H85 freezing line. Surface freezing line follows more like -8 to -6C at H85, depending on elevation. Precip intensity looks light... I could certainly see some wet flakes at the end but getting anything to come down hard enough to stick and/or accumulate looks like a low probability right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Models have what Looks like about an inch of snow from west to east Monday as rain quickly flashes over to snow That ain't happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 That ain't happening. The change to wet snowflakes or quick flash freeze? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 The change to wet snowflakes or quick flash freeze? 1-2" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 1-2" of snow.We said up to an inch. Not for sure but could flip to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 We said up to an inch. Not for sure but could flip to snow These never work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 We said up to an inch. Not for sure but could flip to snow I don't even think there's any flash freeze. I don't know what you're looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 These never work out. Seldomly seem to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 I don't even think there's any flash freeze. I don't know what you're looking at.Huh? Temps go from 40 to 20 quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 I don't even think there's any flash freeze. I don't know what you're looking at. I'm not sure exactly what parameters to look at, but it's a quick influx of colder air aloft. If that translates to the surface, I would think its possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 I wonder how much freezing rain we can get Sunday night... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Huh? Temps go from 40 to 20 quickly Yeah - like over 8 hours. Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Yeah - like over 8 hours. Meh. How come you had 40's all day on Monday this morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 How come you had 40's all day on Monday this morning? Fail. AM high of 47 with falling temps through the day. Thanks for trolling though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Fail. AM high of 47 with falling temps through the day. Thanks for trolling though.I really thought that when I saw the 7:15 cast. Not trolling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 I really thought that when I saw the 7:15 cast. Not trolling Obviously you didn't actually think that since you've been forecasting a flash freeze and 1"-2" of snow on Monday. When people wake up Monday AM they'll be like... wow it's mild... then the bottom drops out by midday. Still - doesn't look like a flash freeze. Temp drop is fairly slow and there should be a gap between the end of the precip and subfreezing temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Obviously you didn't actually think that since you've been forecasting a flash freeze and 1"-2" of snow on Monday. When people wake up Monday AM they'll be like... wow it's mild... then the bottom drops out by midday. Still - doesn't look like a flash freeze. Temp drop is fairly slow and there should be a gap between the end of the precip and subfreezing temps. I did think that. I usually massage your forecasts to get a feel . Sort of blend it in with other data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 I did think that. I usually massage your forecasts to get a feel . Sort of blend it in with other data lol you're probably one of the most obnoxious posters on the board. Anyway... I'm wondering if we'll wind up with a period of freezing drizzle or sleet tomorrow midday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 lol you're probably one of the most obnoxious posters on the board. Anyway... I'm wondering if we'll wind up with a period of freezing drizzle or sleet tomorrow midday. Deep deep hurt. When friends hurt friends.Yeah I could see a little fz scattered about. As cold as the ground is won't take much to create a mess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 It will be a flash freeze here, or close to it. Maybe a little post frontal snow, but I guess hopes are fading there. LES will kick initially north. Obviously you didn't actually think that since you've been forecasting a flash freeze and 1"-2" of snow on Monday. When people wake up Monday AM they'll be like... wow it's mild... then the bottom drops out by midday. Still - doesn't look like a flash freeze. Temp drop is fairly slow and there should be a gap between the end of the precip and subfreezing temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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