Emerging signal for storminess Jan 6-8

[Damage In Tolland]

I agree briefly that the srn burbs may be cooler at first, but it won't last at all.

 

However, this will hav some CAD with it for the interior.

What makes this different than the bonfire we had pre-Xmas? We even had a high to N for that and we don't for this.is it the Se ridge is squashed?

[CoastalWx]

What makes this different than the bonfire we had pre-Xmas? We even had a high to N for that and we don't for this.is it the Se ridge is squashed?

it's not bringing parekeets up from Panama like the last one did. It may be one of those classic eastern areas and maybe briefly interior south of the pike like your area torch to mid 50s..but it will be brief. It looks like one of thoe deals where many areas are in the 40s and then briefly surge to 55 or so before fropa. Interior like Will and especially just north may stay CAD.

[Cold Miser]

So the 7+ here of sand should make it ?

I doubt you still have 7 + at this point.  Sublimation FTL.

[Damage In Tolland]

it's not bringing parekeets up from Panama like the last one did. It may be one of those classic eastern areas and maybe briefly interior south of the pike like your area torch to mid 50s..but it will be brief. It looks like one of thoe deals where many areas are in the 40s and then briefly surge to 55 or so before fropa. Interior like Will and especially just north may stay CAD.

Well if it's up into the 50's to ORH I don't believe for a second most places keep snowpack..I also don't buy it getting that warm except in SE Mass I will say

[CoastalWx]

Well if it's up into the 50's to ORH I don't believe for a second most places keep snowpack..I also don't buy it getting that warm except in SE Mass I will say

 

Well naturally it will get mild in SE MA. I never said you will spend hours in the 50s. I said briefly perhaps before fropa. It depends how north you are...don't take me verbatim, but I do think you will warms sector for a few hours at least.

[ORH_wxman]

Well if it's up into the 50's to ORH I don't believe for a second most places keep snowpack..I also don't buy it getting that warm except in SE Mass I will say

 

 

It can get into the 50s in ORH while people keeping their snowpack...as long as its relatively brief (like < 6 hours in the 50s). Perhaps some of the spots that only got 4" of flour would lose it. The southeast areas obviously may be a bit more precarious but they also have a lot of snow to melt.

[Brian5671]

the pre-mas warmup also went on for at least 2 days, this is 12-18 hrs at most.

[N. OF PIKE]

Sun nite close the shades and set alarm for like 5pm monday.

[N. OF PIKE]

54 high on my phone app for Bev on monday ...TORCH

[Damage In Tolland]

54 high on my phone app for Bev on monday ...TORCH

[wx2fish]

Sun nite close the shades and set alarm for like 5pm monday.

Agreed, set it just in time for the fropa.

[Whineminster]

soo with all this CAD, is any meanwhile icing in the picture? Or maybe just a glazing then it switches to rain?

[dryslot]

Agreed, set it just in time for the fropa.

 

Yeah, Because you will know when it rips thru

[Go Kart Mozart]

When do we start the 1/10 event thread, after we check tomorrow A.M.'s runs?   And incidentally, I think the Bengals play at home on Sunday, that could be a wild scene with the cutter tracking right over them, and rain slamming over to snow.

[Damage In Tolland]

I see a light rain rapidly changing to light snow situation Monday with flash freeze.....very dangerous driving.

[tamarack]

Well, My reference was more for up here with that, We should hang on to the cold a little longer, Plus i have an arctic icepack from the ice storm so i see very little ill effect coming out of this one, I think most down there should make it thru to, We are not talking a long period of torch temps

 

The sleet sandwich in the middle of my 20" will likely not be affected, while the 9-10" above it might be compacted to half as thick.  Would still have 15-16" at the stake.  I'm more concerned about the refreeze/runoff plugging the drainage infrastructure on the woods roads, and that those road surfaces might be glare ice until some white gravel arrives.

[SnowMan]

Agreed, set it just in time for the fropa.

We will be fine in our location I think...

[CoastalWx]

There is definitely a CAD signal on the NAM and the GFS. The GFS is from some sort of weak low well offshore. Looks convectively induced, but I'm not opening that box up...lol.

[Bruinsyear]

What prevents this next system to transfer to the coast? It has a weak low coming from the Midwest and a consolidated and  strong looking blob of moisture (not sure its a Low) along the gulf coast and then off shore of the Carolinas.

 

Usually the more organized blob off the coast seems to win out and the Midwest energy is transferred, in this case the models to the opposite. Why?

[CoastalWx]

What prevents this next system to transfer to the coast? It has a weak low coming from the Midwest and a consolidated and  strong looking blob of moisture (not sure its a Low) along the gulf coast and then off shore of the Carolinas.

 

Usually the more organized blob off the coast seems to win out and the Midwest energy is transferred, in this case the models to the opposite. Why?

 

That cold shot is plunging south through the Plains and there is a very strong s/w that induces cyclogenesis over the Gulf Coast states. However, there may be some cold air damming ahead of it...this will not be the Christmas torch.

[Heisy]

Interesting shortwave on the Day 8 GFS today, its definitely not a good setup for snow down my way, but it looks like it would evolve into something pretty ominous for you guys up there. Tip would be excited to see this I think...

 

[Ginx snewx]

Lol Kevin melts more snow every year than anyone here. Forgettable warming, biggest memory will be the Yo Yo

[Damage In Tolland]

Lol Kevin melts more snow every year than anyone here. Forgettable warming, biggest memory will be the Yo Yo

Will you have full cover left?

[Ginx snewx]

Will you have full cover left?

yes

[Damage In Tolland]

yes

Feather dusting or deep inches?

[Bruinsyear]

That cold shot is plunging south through the Plains and there is a very strong s/w that induces cyclogenesis over the Gulf Coast states. However, there may be some cold air damming ahead of it...this will not be the Christmas torch.

 

Got it, thanks.

[Ginx snewx]

ALB hitting ice storm pretty hard.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR SAT NIGHT ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL

START TO INCREASE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF SATURDAY NIGHT WITH

LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY SUNDAY MORNING AS A STORM SYSTEM

STARTS TO LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER

VALLEY ALONG A COLD FRONT IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.

SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY BREAK OUT DURING THE AFTN HOURS FROM SOUTH

TO NORTH. TEMPS WILL BE WARMING ALOFT...BUT WITH THE SNOWPACK...IT

WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR SFC TEMPS TO WARM. PRECIP MAY INITIALLY

BEGIN AS SNOW...BUT MAY BEGIN TO MIX WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN

TOWARDS THE EVENING HOURS...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

MAX TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 30S.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY LOOK TO BE THE MOST CHALLENGING FORECAST

PERIODS AS PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES COUPLED WITH SURFACE TEMPS

FAVOR A POTENTIALLY LONG PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. CURRENTLY HAVE

PLACED AMOUNTS FORM A TENTH UP TO HALF AN INCH ACROSS NRN AREAS

WHICH MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING. SOUTHERN AREAS MAY CHANGE

OVER TO RAIN FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME BEFORE ALL OF THE

PRECIPITATION CHANGES BACK TO SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS

FALLING DURING THIS PERIOD OF TIME. THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR A

FAIRLY STRONG LAKE BAND TO SET UP ACRS THE WRN ADIRONDACKS AND

WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY FOR A WATCH...THIS EVENT HAS THE POTENTIAL

TO BE SIGNIFICANT. SO WILL MAKE MENTION IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME.

EXPECT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH

HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 30S.

[Damage In Tolland]

It's the Nam. It's got rain flashing to snow from w to e on Monday

[ineedsnow]

and they should be even here in the valley I think it will be bad

ALB hitting ice storm pretty hard.



&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR SAT NIGHT ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL
START TO INCREASE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY SUNDAY MORNING AS A STORM SYSTEM
STARTS TO LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER
VALLEY ALONG A COLD FRONT IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.
SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY BREAK OUT DURING THE AFTN HOURS FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH. TEMPS WILL BE WARMING ALOFT...BUT WITH THE SNOWPACK...IT
WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR SFC TEMPS TO WARM. PRECIP MAY INITIALLY
BEGIN AS SNOW...BUT MAY BEGIN TO MIX WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
TOWARDS THE EVENING HOURS...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
MAX TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 30S.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY LOOK TO BE THE MOST CHALLENGING FORECAST
PERIODS AS PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES COUPLED WITH SURFACE TEMPS
FAVOR A POTENTIALLY LONG PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. CURRENTLY HAVE
PLACED AMOUNTS FORM A TENTH UP TO HALF AN INCH ACROSS NRN AREAS
WHICH MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING. SOUTHERN AREAS MAY CHANGE
OVER TO RAIN FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME BEFORE ALL OF THE
PRECIPITATION CHANGES BACK TO SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS
FALLING DURING THIS PERIOD OF TIME. THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR A
FAIRLY STRONG LAKE BAND TO SET UP ACRS THE WRN ADIRONDACKS AND
WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY FOR A WATCH...THIS EVENT HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO BE SIGNIFICANT. SO WILL MAKE MENTION IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME.
EXPECT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH
HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 30S.

[Typhoon Tip]

ALB hitting ice storm pretty hard.

 

 

I agree with them, Steve, and particularly in the latter hours of the event, I could see the Berkshire els popping into the 40s while cold drains in the lower surround els. 

There is a yet that much more damming signaled on this 18 z GFS run (not that any 18 z GFS run should ever be bought at face value... just sayin').   Here's the issue I have, the storm is moving so fast that I suspect it out paces the ability to completely scour out a dammed air mass.  If there were no damming and a synoptic rotation of the fluid dial (so to speak) then I'd have less problem with it warming smartly and rapidly.  

 

In January 1994, something like that happened, with a dawn in the teens, and by that same evening, mid 50s with steaming snow piles, in a southerly gale had punched clear up to D.E.M.

 

This is not the same here... First of all, there isn't as powerful a WAA signaled.  Second, there is actual damming in the curvature of the PP, which means there is resistance -- with our topography, a snow pack, and chilly antecedent lower level thickness, climo argues against warm penetration.  GGEM hit the damming it hardest, but trending that way in the GFS.   Notice this GFS run has a bit more of a coastal cyclogenesis off the Carolina coast, too -- that would also impede warm getting N.  Most important is the pacing issue... typically it takes a solid 12 to 18 hours to get cold off the land N of a HFD-BOS line when there is CAD in the PP, this thing is in and out before that can happen.

 

The argues triple point squeeze out along the LI Sound imo.  

 

I am not saying we are getting an ice storm out of it, but that I would hedge my bets on not meaningfully warm for the time being and we'll see where model runs take us.  I am noting that the NAM 18z was subtantially east and weaker with the low, that would also mitigate warmth, should a weaker low prevail.  It may in fact all be more an issue for ALB-RUT-CON and point N, sure, but I think interior Mass N of the Pike runs into some issues for a time ...in the least.