tamarack Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Fascinated by this one. Just a bomb out in the Midwest. Blizzard. Looks like it. Probably will frustrate the grandkids in Illinois, however, by being too cold for them to go out and play in it, particularly a day or two after the storm. Closer to home, this looks like a fine opportunity for fractured elbows and shoulders after the (probably) snowless refreeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 3, 2014 Author Share Posted January 3, 2014 Snowpack isn't getting wiped out at all in this one...unless maybe you were an area that got like 4"...and even then that might not go. This isn't a 24 hour period of 50/50 snow eating weather....there's some CAD on the front end, and then maybe like 6 hours (at most) of 45-50F temps and the cold front swings through...very sharply I might add. Flash freeze isn't out of the question I know it ... I had a feeling I would encounter a knee-jerk, "woe is me" tonality to posting in this thread when I opened it. Maybe it is just so many years, too many years (probably) of involvement with the boards that lent to that prediction. Either way ... one thing I have found is that when a storm such as this last one ends, there's like a combination of greed with panic regarding whatever the weather may have in store. The storm raises the odd kind of crack obsession with snow to a fever pitch, and then immediately the person then gets paranoid that the pattern is out to take their fix away - haha. Guys, you just snorted about a kilo of coke last night. Good grief. Lighten up. I mean, I just read a post where the individual opined about bitter cold, then a rain event, followed by bitter cold. I'm sorry, that's bordering on crazy talk to just somehow omit the fact that we got a powder storm that dreams are more typically challenged to reach. We are above normal in snow fall for the season, pretty much rim to rim. And below normal in cold. Getting a couple of warm slices of time in this whole thing is entirely understandable for the science, and in fact, one could argue that without them, there is lesser likelihood of snow overall. Why? because there's no restoring of the pattern, where/when getting back to cold requires snow storms... ding ding ding. It's probably futile to even confront the matter... A lot of common clay users just are not privy enough about the science and combined, have unrealistic expectations that cannot seem to be penetrated with logic. I agree with Will -- this event is going to do very little damage to snow pack. It's moving too fast, and there are lead side details that will cut into the amount of time, or even ability, for warmth to get to the surface. The ocean is even a factor now, because it is so cold (colder than normal in fact), that it will cause inversion and ... the list just goes on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Looks like we start as a period of freezing rain out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I know it ... I had a feeling I would encounter a knee-jerk, "woe is me" tonality to posting in this thread when I opened it. Maybe it is just so many years, too many years (probably) of involvement with the boards that lent to that prediction. Either way ... one thing I have found is that when a storm such as this last one ends, there's like a combination of greed with panic regarding whatever the weather may have in store. The storm raises the odd kind of crack obsession with snow to a fever pitch, and then immediately the person then gets paranoid that the pattern is out to take their fix away - haha. Guys, you just snorted about a kilo of coke last night. Good grief. Lighten up. I mean, I just read a post where the individual opined about bitter cold, then a rain event, followed by bitter cold. I'm sorry, that's bordering on crazy talk to just somehow omit the fact that we got a powder storm that dreams are more typically challenged to reach. We are above normal in snow fall for the season, pretty much rim to rim. And below normal in cold. Getting a couple of warm slices of time in this whole thing is entirely understandable for the science, and in fact, one could argue that without them, there is lesser likelihood of snow overall. Why? because there's no restoring of the pattern, where/when getting back to cold requires snow storms... ding ding ding. It's probably futile to even confront the matter... A lot of common clay users just are not privy enough about the science and combined, have unrealistic expectations that cannot seem to be penetrate with logic. I agree with Will -- this event is going to do very little damage to snow pack. It's moving too fast, and there are lead side details that will cut into the amount of time, or even ability, for warmth to get to the surface. The ocean is even a factor now, because it is so cold (colder than normal in fact), that it will cause inversion and ... the list just goes on. I would be worried about snowpack for the lower south shore and especially the Cape. Metro BOS should have snow left, and certainly the interior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 No complaining down there Those of us in the far north missed this past one in terms of big amounts and before the ice storm had an underperformer. We are below normal on snow and facing this cutter as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 The cutter will be quickly forgotten Its moving right along, I see minimal damage from this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Its moving right along, I see minimal damage from this Hmm. After a second look yeah, it is a short period of potential warmth. But it could be hours in the 50s for PYM and the Cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Hmm. After a second look yeah, it is a short period of potential warmth. But it could be hours in the 50s for PYM and the Cape Well, My reference was more for up here with that, We should hang on to the cold a little longer, Plus i have an arctic icepack from the ice storm so i see very little ill effect coming out of this one, I think most down there should make it thru to, We are not talking a long period of torch temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 The interior (esp north of the pike) may get very little damage overall...we'll see. The models are starting to "see" the CAD a bit better and it could take most of the event to truly warm sector at the surface. Even above freezing if its a 35-36F and rain, that won't do much damage, you really need at least 38F or higher at saturation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 3, 2014 Author Share Posted January 3, 2014 I know lol..... I was referencing the cold but obviously the snow also. Actually, it's pretty remarkable from a science standpoint. Ice cold to rain to ice cold I wish there was more adherence to this perspective on matters ... but we put our dreams away. Yeah, it's pretty amazing to see this air mass today, and spanning 72 hours all the changes that will go on aloft. I am just not sure a lot of that will register down here at the surface. This thing is moving so fast, that even if warm air managed to cut deep into the interior (which I have my doubts) it's just not going to be around that long. Tediously studying the details of the pressure patter (isobaric layout) on the GGEM, GFS, ..ECM, I see a potential for a triple point to develop near south coast. There is a fairly pronounced CAD signature in the GGEM, that even shows up vaguely in the GFS. The Euro oddly has less...But, given to climo (time of year) and the antecedent air mass, it seems that there should be at least some boundary layer inhibition. Then, ...by the time the atmosphere works all that out, that is one helluva sharp cold fropa... I mean, there's like 5 thickness contours packed into the distance between ALB-BOS! The 850 thermal jolt is on the order of +7 to -10C in just 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 3, 2014 Author Share Posted January 3, 2014 The interior (esp north of the pike) may get very little damage overall...we'll see. The models are starting to "see" the CAD a bit better and it could take most of the event to truly warm sector at the surface. Even above freezing if its a 35-36F and rain, that won't do much damage, you really need at least 38F or higher at saturation. I think you're pretty much spot on ... If there is any CAD that verifies, the speed of the system overall will likely over run it. CAD takes time to remove once its established; hence, forcing triple points and so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 So the 7+ here of sand should make it ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I think you're pretty much spot on ... If there is any CAD that verifies, the speed of the system overall will likely over run it. CAD takes time to remove once its established; hence, forcing triple points and so far. haha you guys in the interior are justified in being not worried. This will melt a lot of snow on the coast, particularly eastern PYM county and the Cape. Not all 15 inches, but several of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 So the 7+ here of sand should make it ? He said north of the pike... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 The interior (esp north of the pike) may get very little damage overall...we'll see. The models are starting to "see" the CAD a bit better and it could take most of the event to truly warm sector at the surface. Even above freezing if its a 35-36F and rain, that won't do much damage, you really need at least 38F or higher at saturation. That is what I was thinking, going to have to be a pretty warm to scour the cold from the surface; does ice become an issue or is it limited? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I think it is fascinating that within 36 to 48 hours, within Massachusetts, there could be one part of the state that hits -25F and then with the cutter another part could hit 60F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 So the 7+ here of sand should make it ?easy, I still smell an ice storm in NNE. CAD city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I think it is fascinating that within 36 to 48 hours, within Massachusetts, there could be one part of the state that hits -25F and then with the cutter another part could hit 60Fit is nature at its best, just awesome stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 He said north of the pike... He lives in Shrewsbury now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 The arctic air is scoured out on sunday. But the cold should hold across the interior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 easy, I still smell an ice storm in NNE. CAD city Models ea run has held onto the cad at the surface longer, I can see an ice situation up here as much as we really don't need one, We still have ice covered trees from the lack of any above freezing temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Looking at the basic 1000-500 + surface maps of the GFS it seems like I can make out a damming signature and evidence of where a triple point would be. This from a model that usually does worse with that kind of thing. I wish there was more adherence to this perspective on matters ... but we put our dreams away. Yeah, it's pretty amazing to see this air mass today, and spanning 72 hours all the changes that will go on aloft. I am just not sure a lot of that will register down here at the surface. This thing is moving so fast, that even if warm air managed to cut deep into the interior (which I have my doubts) it's just not going to be around that long. Tediously studying the details of the pressure patter (isobaric layout) on the GGEM, GFS, ..ECM, I see a potential for a triple point to develop near south coast. There is a fairly pronounced CAD signature in the GGEM, that even shows up vaguely in the GFS. The Euro oddly has less...But, given to climo (time of year) and the antecedent air mass, it seems that there should be at least some boundary layer inhibition. Then, ...by the time the atmosphere works all that out, that is one helluva sharp cold fropa... I mean, there's like 5 thickness contours packed into the distance between ALB-BOS! The 850 thermal jolt is on the order of +7 to -10C in just 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 3, 2014 Author Share Posted January 3, 2014 Almost worthy of starting a new thread for this... The Euro and GGEM have very interesting patterns for next week, post the big SPV lifting out. That action alleviates a good bit of the incredible gradient and anomalously fast, compressed flow that has plagued the air ways since .... wow, going back a ways. The new paradigm that emerges, ... however long it stays notwithstanding, is a relaxed one that features weaker waves having the mechanical power to develop events. Namely at 120-144 hours already and the Euro has a -10C from ORD to BOS, and along that axis, there is also a polar boundary with nondescript wave of low pressure out around Mich/Ohio... Meanwhile, the 700mb level RH has gone nearly saturated, and so has the 850mb... That all maintains through 168 hours when a wave of low pressure finally gets organized and moves S of Long Long... Basically, a long duration light/moderate winter event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I am in such a great spot for CAD. So many times up here in the Plymouth NH area we stay below freezing while everyone warms up around us. I have seen many times the max is right after the fropa as the air mixes out. That seems not to be this case as the fropa is so sharp. The pines in the hollows are really maxed right now with the 8" of wet snow from the first storm and then 10" of powder from yesterday. Rain or freezing rain will not be good. Wonder if we hold on to freezing or below with the cutter??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 FWIW, Matt Noyes said this morning that the snow pack isn't going away anytime soon, despite the cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolMike Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Almost worthy of starting a new thread for this... The Euro and GGEM have very interesting patterns for next week, post the big SPV lifting out. That action alleviates a good bit of the incredible gradient and anomalously fast, compressed flow that has plagued the air ways since .... wow, going back a ways. The new paradigm that emerges, ... however long it stays notwithstanding, is a relaxed one that features weaker waves having the mechanical power to develop events. Namely at 120-144 hours already and the Euro has a -10C from ORD to BOS, and along that axis, there is also a polar boundary with nondescript wave of low pressure out around Mich/Ohio... Meanwhile, the 700mb level RH has gone nearly saturated, and so has the 850mb... That all maintains through 168 hours when a wave of low pressure finally gets organized and moves S of Long Long... Basically, a long duration light/moderate winter event. Flow looks really progressive on the GFS still. I hope the fast flow does slow down per the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Sounds like one of the typical Winter 94 events... Almost worthy of starting a new thread for this... The Euro and GGEM have very interesting patterns for next week, post the big SPV lifting out. That action alleviates a good bit of the incredible gradient and anomalously fast, compressed flow that has plagued the air ways since .... wow, going back a ways. The new paradigm that emerges, ... however long it stays notwithstanding, is a relaxed one that features weaker waves having the mechanical power to develop events. Namely at 120-144 hours already and the Euro has a -10C from ORD to BOS, and along that axis, there is also a polar boundary with nondescript wave of low pressure out around Mich/Ohio... Meanwhile, the 700mb level RH has gone nearly saturated, and so has the 850mb... That all maintains through 168 hours when a wave of low pressure finally gets organized and moves S of Long Long... Basically, a long duration light/moderate winter event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 haha you guys in the interior are justified in being not worried. This will melt a lot of snow on the coast, particularly eastern PYM county and the Cape. Not all 15 inches, but several of that. I agree briefly that the srn burbs may be cooler at first, but it won't last at all. However, this will hav some CAD with it for the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 3, 2014 Author Share Posted January 3, 2014 Flow looks really progressive on the GFS still. I hope the fast flow does slow down per the Euro. As I said ... however long it lasts, notwithstanding... But even the GFS relaxes the flow heading up to D7, and has waves in the flow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 3, 2014 Author Share Posted January 3, 2014 I am in such a great spot for CAD. So many times up here in the Plymouth NH area we stay below freezing while everyone warms up around us. I have seen many times the max is right after the fropa as the air mixes out. That seems not to be this case as the fropa is so sharp. The pines in the hollows are really maxed right now with the 8" of wet snow from the first storm and then 10" of powder from yesterday. Rain or freezing rain will not be good. Wonder if we hold on to freezing or below with the cutter??? You/we could also CAD and keep it 36F, too -- we're not necessarily implicating "freezing" per se. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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