PB GFI Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 All I can say is you are a hell of lot closer to an all out Blizzard here than a whiff . The 500MB map looks great where its coming thru the slot there deepening aloft and the GFS is perfect 3.5 days out . When I see this it reminds me of every other snowstorm forecasted on the GFS 3 plus days out in NYC . I love when the GFS runs the center out , it means i`m safe from Rain when it jobs back N and decides to join its own 500 map . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 IMO the NAM will suffer for at least another 18-24 hours before it starts showing its ridiculous HECS solutions... The GOA energy isn't even in it's grid yet. First rule of modeling is crap in equals crap out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 We'll be lucky to have the northern stream energy onshore by 18z tomorrow. Usually once this is captured, the models either trend much stronger or much weaker with the overall storm. If we can see a consolidated version of today's 12z ECMWF, then I think most will be happy here. It's going to be an interesting 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 IMO the NAM will suffer for at least another 18-24 hours before it starts showing its ridiculous HECS solutions... The GOA energy isn't even in it's grid yet. First rule of modeling is crap in equals crap out. ScreenHunter_59 Dec. 30 18.03.png I've been looking at tons of past snowstorms and the closest matches are 1/7/94 - 1/8/94, 1/25/00 and 2/3/95 - 2/4/95, based on the H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Any word in the gfs ens?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Any word in the gfs ens?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I've been looking at tons of past snowstorms and the closest matches are 1/7/94 - 1/8/94, 1/25/00 and 2/3/95 - 2/4/95, based on the H5. those all at a min tainted.... and 2/5/95 didnt have any semblance of a 50/50 or a block Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 We don't even need the low to be that close to the coast with enhanced convergence along the coastal trough extending west from the double barreled low to our east. Hopefully, the trough axis snows work out as advertised should the lows track this far east. I like our odds for at least several inches of snow from this. We can get snow from the system a number of different ways and it doesn't look like an all or nothing as it did yesterday. That's definitely a good sign. The GFS might still be spuriously developing a low too soon and shifting it out, and therefore the baroclinic zone as the main trough energy comes in. It's done this a number of times before. I guess it could somehow be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Any word in the gfs ens?? Not too crazy .5-.75" for all of Jersey and SNY .75-1" from NYC eastward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The flow is still too fast for a major storm, and the best way to overcome that would be to dig the system further south. I don't recall too many major storms where the NAO was so flat either. We have a nice block in place as the storm comes in, which slows the pattern down just enough. It's not like late Dec 2010's block which was a monster, but it should still be enough. I'm liking more and more where we sit for this, I definitely don't think we get nothing, anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 those all at a min tainted.... and 2/5/95 didnt have any semblance of a 50/50 or a block Which brings up the certainty of this storm making a negative tilt. http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1995/04-Feb-95-500MillibarMaps.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 18z GEFS members. All are hits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I like our odds for at least several inches of snow from this. We can get snow from the system a number of different ways and it doesn't look like an all or nothing as it did yesterday. That's definitely a good sign. The GFS might still be spuriously developing a low too soon and shifting it out, and therefore the baroclinic zone as the main trough energy comes in. It's done this a number of times before. I guess it could somehow be right. Yeah, I would probably go with a Euro ensemble mean idea now of a double-barrelled low with a trough enhancing convergence back to the coast. It will be interesting to see if the OP Euro continues as amped for the wind potential. If the OP holds serve, the stronger low more tucked in further west and higher winds may pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Not too crazy .5-.75" for all of Jersey and SNY .75-1" from NYC eastward There is about 3-4 epic members in there, most so far (good sign for 0z) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Which brings up the certainty of this storm making a negative tilt. http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1995/04-Feb-95-500MillibarMaps.html there are plenty of storms that go negative with a 50/50...not sure what your point is in that post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 18z GEFS members. All are hits Actually, 10 out of 12 are hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 Actually, 10 out of 12 are hits. you can see those hits having that signature comma head. Big news on the GFES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 there are plenty of storms that go negative with a 50/50...not sure what your point is in that post The GFS had a neutral tilt, but not a true negative tilt, which is the reason why there was some issues with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Actually, 10 out of 12 are hits. Well, yeah, I was referring in terms if we see snow or not. A few have a stronger primary, which leads to a more inland, warmer solution. A few are S&E. I think we find a solution in the middle ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Started the 0z thread,... SREFs @ 8 ...big night leading up to the EURO http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42195-january-2-3-winter-storm-1231-0z-model-discussion-thread/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 18z GEFS members. All are hits Member #7 there in the bottom left was pretty much the last hold out, it had nothing until this run, still a miss more or less but the first time its had a storm up the coast...you can see the slower members have a much more big storm...about 3 or so have it, overall though I think the real killer closed off scenario is not going to happen because the flow is still fairly progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 Member #7 there in the bottom left was pretty much the last hold out, it had nothing until this run, still a miss more or less but the first time its had a storm up the coast...you can see the slower members have a much more big storm...about 3 or so have it, overall though I think the real killer closed off scenario is not going to happen because the flow is still fairly progressive. if only we had the slightest west based block we'd be talking about the possibility of a closed off stacked low coming up the coast snowgoose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 if only we had the slightest west based block we'd be talking about the possibility of a closed off stacked low coming up the coast snowgoose The bigger problem may actually be the system thats moving through NWRN Canada north of Montana and Washington as we get to days 3-4 which is pushing the western ridge East...the block up north is not all that bad, but that system wanting to push things along may be the major issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 if only we had the slightest west based block we'd be talking about the possibility of a closed off stacked low coming up the coast snowgoose I think that the models keep this progressive and don't close off over us due to the kicker coming into the west right behind this storm. You can see the heights really rebound over the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 The bigger problem may actually be the system thats moving through NWRN Canada north of Montana and Washington as we get to days 3-4 which is pushing the western ridge East...the block up north is not all that bad, but that system wanting to push things along may be the major issue. with saying that the closing off would have to do more with what that system does in making the flow slow down or keep it progressive for no closing off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The bigger problem may actually be the system thats moving through NWRN Canada north of Montana and Washington as we get to days 3-4 which is pushing the western ridge East...the block up north is not all that bad, but that system wanting to push things along may be the major issue. We had something similar with the Boxing Day 2010 event-the kicker system was actually well into the Rockies by the time we were getting blitzed, and the ridge axis was actually into the Plains. The block was stronger then but I still think we can have a big event here if the trough is amplified enough. But we need to keep the solid trends today with the diving northern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 We had something similar with the Boxing Day 2010 event-the kicker system was actually well into the Rockies by the time we were getting blitzed, and the ridge axis was actually into the Plains. The block was stronger then but I still think we can have a big event here if the trough is amplified enough. But we need to keep the solid trends today with the diving northern stream. The block was much stronger. On the day the storm commenced, the AO was -2.886. A day earlier, it had been -3.827. A day later, it was still -2.532. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 We have a nice block in place as the storm comes in, which slows the pattern down just enough. It's not like late Dec 2010's block which was a monster, but it should still be enough. I'm liking more and more where we sit for this, I definitely don't think we get nothing, anyway. ...what about mixing or rain ? we always seem to have those issues..(south shore) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 31, 2013 Author Share Posted December 31, 2013 ...what about mixing or rain ? we always seem to have those issues..(south shore) unless the storm really trends N&W mixing will not be a problem at the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 It's silly to compare this to Boxing Day. That a huge negative NAO to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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