WE GOT HIM Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 GFS clown maps are 10-12" through LI. 12"+ on north fork. About 8" for NYC. Not bad. Yea snow ratios will be higher than 10:1 and this was far from an ideal run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 GFS clown maps are 10-12" through LI. 12"+ on north fork. About 8" for NYC. Not bad. I know it wasn't your intention, but "not bad" is just amusing. In the late 80's and early 90's, we would have literally killed to get this kind of an accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LnbWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Not sure it's a right question but what's the QPF forecast for the city in this run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 GFS clown maps are 10-12" through LI. 12"+ on north fork. About 8" for NYC. Not bad. We don't even need the low to be that close to the coast with enhanced convergence along the coastal trough extending west from the double barreled low to our east. Hopefully, the trough axis snows work out as advertised should the lows track this far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Looking at 500mb you can see that we're partially victimized here by not having a clean phase. Part of the southern stream energy is allowed to escape northeast of the main trough, and that is what the GFS blows up into the more eastern low. That looks bogus and once that is resolved the final outcome should be one, stronger low pressure system, and a track closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 For comparison purposes: here is the 12Z GFS. I will post the 18Z when available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 Looking at 500mb you can see that we're partially victimized here by not having a clean phase. Part of the southern stream energy is allowed to escape northeast of the main trough, and that is what the GFS blows up into the more eastern low. That looks bogus and once that is resolved the final outcome should be one, stronger low pressure system, and a track closer to the coast. the 18z GFS is known for having these hiccups. I don't get it because the southern stream sampling is only going to be getting better throughout the night and into tomorrow. I agree that the idea the 18z gfs had was bogus and no one should use it as gospel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 wow gfs get the -20 2m line into Westchester Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 That vort max way east of the rest of the trough is what is causing so many problems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I know it wasn't your intention, but "not bad" is just amusing. In the late 80's and early 90's, we would have literally killed to get this kind of an accumulation. And hearing about it on the radio shack weather radio cube! (Banter, I know) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Extreme cold signal still holds. Select 1/4 12z readings: Albany: -10° (Was -8° on the 12z run) Islip: 10° (Was 11° on the 12z run) New York City: -2° (No change from 12z) Newark: -3° (No change from 12z) White Plains: -3° (No change from 12z) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Tonight's runs should be good if that energy comes ashore. The QPF shield is quite expansive given how far offshore the lows are that even in a bad scenario we would still get 6"+ and maybe up to 10 with ratios factored in, especially just east of the city. If that classic N&W trend holds serve, then we should be good in 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 wow gfs get the -20 2m line into Westchester 0 degree line looks to be very close to NYC this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 That vort max way east of the rest of the trough is what is causing so many problems Correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The GFS was fine. It held serve buy diving the northern branch in and the model sees the deepening once to the eastern seaboard. Like almost every good winter storm it loves to jump the energy too far east 4 days out. you will see the GFS start to have more of a tucked in negatively tilted look to it like it's ensembles and the euro have it within a day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 The GFS was fine. It held serve buy diving the northern branch in and the model sees the deepening once to the eastern seaboard. Like almost every good winter storm it loves to jump the energy too far east 4 days out. you will see the GFS start to have more of a tucked in negatively tilted look to it like it's ensembles and the euro have it within a day Paul please participate in this thread would love to have your feedback present as well as earthlight, isotherm and bluewave as well. Storm At Sea is not allowed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Classic west based block here just forcing a phase. It's incredible how this snuck up on us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 0 degree line looks to be very close to NYC this run. gfsNE_sfc_temp_114.gif What is the record low for Friday and Saturday Blue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Correct.posts like this are examples of what not to post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Tonight's runs should be good if that energy comes ashore. The QPF shield is quite expansive given how far offshore the lows are that even in a bad scenario we would still get 6"+ and maybe up to 10 with ratios factored in, especially just east of the city. If that classic N&W trend holds serve, then we should be good in 3 days. Yeah, we need the coastal trough axis to work out as advertised. It seems like these were more common in the 70's..80's..90's than recent years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Gfs ens come out by when?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 What is the record low for Friday and Saturday Blue? Here are top 3 with -3 the record: 1/4/NYC -3 in 1918 0 in 1904 5 in 1981 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The flow is still too fast for a major storm, and the best way to overcome that would be to dig the system further south. I don't recall too many major storms where the NAO was so flat either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Hmmm. And you wonder why you have popularity issues here lol. I was agreeing with your good post chief.i'm trying to help clean up this board so that it's respectable again. One word posts add zero value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 it's still a warning critera event on the gfs. IMO this is just noise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XtremeWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Gfs ens come out by when?? They come out at 6 pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 it's still a warning critera event on the gfs. IMO this is just noise Exactly, anyone who has followed wx models over the years can see the errors the GFS has in placement of the surface features. It'll catch up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Classic west based block here just forcing a phase. It's incredible how this snuck up on us Yeah, this looks like the fastest storm threat after a long +AO pattern since 10-29-11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 it's still a warning critera event on the gfs. IMO this is just noise This. I strongly agree. All if the models suddenly jumped to an amplified solution, there's no debating it at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 This. I strongly agree. All if the models suddenly jumped to an amplified solution, there's no debating it at this point. the block is helping as well. 00z should have the data from the southern stream as it makes landfall as well. overall john the trends were just amazing to say the least today. Miller A look likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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