Weathergun Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 On 12/31/2013 at 12:23 AM, jm1220 said: We had something similar with the Boxing Day 2010 event-the kicker system was actually well into the Rockies by the time we were getting blitzed, and the ridge axis was actually into the Plains. The block was stronger then but I still think we can have a big event here if the trough is amplified enough. But we need to keep the solid trends today with the diving northern stream. The ridge was much stronger the over the Plains, for Boxing Day 2010. This one is collapsing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Mixing at the coast is always a threat. Those sneaky mid level warm pushes happen a lot and often aren't modeled well until the near term. That probably won't be the case here unless this ends up very weak and disorganized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 On 12/31/2013 at 12:58 AM, YanksFan27 said: Mixing at the coast is always a threat. Those sneaky mid level warm pushes happen a lot and often aren't modeled well until the near term. That probably won't be the case here unless this ends up very weak and disorganized. That happened during the 96 Blizzard in Ocean County - mixed with and changed to sleet for a period of time cutting down on totals we only received 19 or 20 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 On 12/31/2013 at 1:17 AM, NEG NAO said: That happened during the 96 Blizzard in Ocean County - mixed with and changed to sleet for a period of time cutting down on totals we only received 19 or 20 inches Man, a storm when 19-20 inches is "only" is a dream I wish could happen again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Having 3 or 4 threads for this storm is terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Increasing probabilities of accumulating snow beginning in NYC (NY La Guardia airport) starting after 1800Z on Jan 2, 2014 as per the 18Z GFS MOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 On 12/31/2013 at 1:23 AM, BenchmarksTheSpot said: Having 3 or 4 threads for this storm is terrible. I agree. The New Englanders make one thread work. When it gets to a certain size they lock it and start a new one. As the event gets close then a second obs thread is warranted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 On 12/30/2013 at 10:10 PM, WeatherFox said: For comparison purposes: here is the 12Z GFS. I will post the 18Z when available. Here is 18Z GFS, extended period of light to moderate snow which would accumulate with the sub 32 degree F temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 On 12/31/2013 at 1:23 AM, BenchmarksTheSpot said: Having 3 or 4 threads for this storm is terrible. I didnt like it at first but i think it can be usefull, lets give it a chance. We can have a vote after the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 On 12/31/2013 at 1:44 AM, user13 said: I didnt like it at first but i think it can be usefull, lets give it a chance. We can have a vote after the storm.we had separate model threads for years. if bluewave makes a detailed post in a single superthread it gets drowned out in 15 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 On 12/31/2013 at 1:47 AM, forkyfork said: we had separate model threads for years. if bluewave makes a detailed post in a single superthread it gets drowned out in 15 minutes yeah I like the separate model threads too. It worked quite well in the easternwx days. But think we should have one pinned general/discussion obs thread. Don't think there is any need to separate obs from the discussion as it winds up morphing into both anyway. As far as the storm liking the trends on the op and ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 31, 2013 Author Share Posted December 31, 2013 SREF's out yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 On 12/31/2013 at 1:47 AM, forkyfork said: we had separate model threads for years. if bluewave makes a detailed post in a single superthread it gets drowned out in 15 minutes Exactly, also we can have a synopsis with every new post for people checking in after work or what not. If i stepped away for a few hours its hard to keep track of what going on when Im mobile and cant look at the runs myself. It was also annoying when threads randomly ended at least now there would be a structure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The NAM is out to 18 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 On 12/31/2013 at 1:56 AM, PB GFI said: The NAM is out to 18 hrs Oz thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 On 12/31/2013 at 1:57 AM, Plfdwxdude said: Oz thread? http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42195-january-2-3-winter-storm-1231-0z-model-discussion-thread/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 On 12/31/2013 at 2:11 AM, SACRUS said: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42195-january-2-3-winter-storm-1231-0z-model-discussion-thread/ Yes I know I was reminding him since he was discussing the 0z run. Maybe we should lock this thread now to make it less confusing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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