famartin Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Raw EC has -2F at PHL 7AM Saturday. Raw GFS is -3F. The coldest reading since 1994 at PHL currently stands at +3F, on 1/24/2005 and 2/5/1996. PHL's last below zero reading was 1/19/1994 when it was -5F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Raw EC has -2F at PHL 7AM Saturday. Raw GFS is -3F. The coldest reading since 1994 at PHL currently stands at +3F, on 1/24/2005 and 2/5/1996. PHL's last below zero reading was 1/19/1994 when it was -5F. While it wouldn't surprise me if we came in a few degrees above -2, it would be real nice to beat the +3, even get to 0, just to know it can still happen (for PHL). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stemwinder Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 famartin, on 30 Dec 2013 - 2:11 PM, said: Raw EC has -2F at PHL 7AM Saturday. Raw GFS is -3F. The coldest reading since 1994 at PHL currently stands at +3F, on 1/24/2005 and 2/5/1996. PHL's last below zero reading was 1/19/1994 when it was -5F. Ray, it surprises me that the cold in 2004 did not surpass the +3F you note for those dates in 95 and 96. I'm guessing that the core of that cold air passed further to the east. I think that NYC had +1F in Jan. 2004. Hoping that the preceding storm leaves us with power for that cold shot. Happy New Year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 This will affect the Eagles game for sure.... Edited for effect.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 famartin, on 30 Dec 2013 - 2:11 PM, said: Raw EC has -2F at PHL 7AM Saturday. Raw GFS is -3F. The coldest reading since 1994 at PHL currently stands at +3F, on 1/24/2005 and 2/5/1996. PHL's last below zero reading was 1/19/1994 when it was -5F. Ray, it surprises me that the cold in 2004 did not surpass the +3F you note for those dates in 95 and 96. I'm guessing that the core of that cold air passed further to the east. I think that NYC had +1F in Jan. 2004. Hoping that the preceding storm leaves us with power for that cold shot. Happy New Year! PHL missed the good snow that they got around NYC that January, which no doubt helped the cold along. PHL's min was 4F, but it was back on 1/10/2004. NYC's min was 1 on 1/16/2004, just after nearly 6 inches of fluff. PHL comparatively got less than 2 inches from that system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eastonwx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Sat.AM at ABE record of -4 in jeopardy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 Sat.AM at ABE record of -4 in jeopardy? It certainly looks attainable... though GFS and EC both have -2 to -3 at 7AM, it could get a little lower before or after that. Of course, still potential for this to modify a bit. I really just want to see some sub-zeros along I-95, even if its just -1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 It certainly looks attainable... though GFS and EC both have -2 to -3 at 7AM, it could get a little lower before or after that. Of course, still potential for this to modify a bit. I really just want to see some sub-zeros along I-95, even if its just -1. Philly like NYC had very cold temperatures from the late 1970's to mid 1980's... -7 1/17/1982... -7 1/22/1984 -6 1/21/1985 -4 1/17/1977 -4 1/18/1982 ...................... -5 1/19/1994 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Aside from record lows independent of date, it looks like at PHL, the coldest minimum temperature since 1940 through the 1st 7 days of January is +7. Eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 next week, geeze, sorry i mentioned it. i guess '94 was when i had -10f in my back yard in chalfont, pa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 31, 2013 Author Share Posted December 31, 2013 Aside from record lows independent of date, it looks like at PHL, the coldest minimum temperature since 1940 through the 1st 7 days of January is +7. Eh? Yeah that's correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Yeah that's correct. The "eh" was the Canadian Eh? as in pretty impressive cold, especially for the time of the year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Hey Ray, nice thread. You are doing a great job as leader of this sub-forum. It is about time we had real cold air to track. I suppose those lows are in assumption of fresh snowcover? have lived in Cape May since the great winter of 95/96 and I unofficially got down to about 1F on the mainland near KWWD that winter. I hit 3F in 2003 and 4F in 2004. I since have moved closer to the water and have yet to crack 11F. NWS says 10F Saturday morning and I thiink it is attainable if we accumulate snow Th/Fr. The wikipedia entry for the blizzard of 1899 says the all time low for Cape May city was attained after that storm at 0F. That was after a 36" dump of snow. Can only imagine the drifts since there were fewer trees back then as so much land was cleared for agriculture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 It certainly looks attainable... though GFS and EC both have -2 to -3 at 7AM, it could get a little lower before or after that. Of course, still potential for this to modify a bit. I really just want to see some sub-zeros along I-95, even if its just -1. ABE gets to -20.0°C (-4°F) at 9z on the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eastonwx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 which models tend to perform better in regards to temperatures? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 31, 2013 Author Share Posted December 31, 2013 Tony "Rainshadow" posted this in the other forum... "I'm on another mapping group e-mail and there was someone from the EC on there today. He said the model does not take into account urban effects/water and land interfaces well in its raw data and has a tendency to hang onto snow cover too long. He also said that fresh snow can lead to large errors of either sign because of variations or lack thereof in wind. So, while this air mass will be cold, don't take the raw model data "as is". He also said while the 00z model output was toward the snowiest end, he wouldn't call it an outlier run. (whatever the criteria for outlier is)." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 31, 2013 Author Share Posted December 31, 2013 0Z GFS backed off on the cold a few degrees... not quite below zero anymore. At least the raw, 6-hour 2-meter temps aren't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 31, 2013 Author Share Posted December 31, 2013 0Z EC backed even further off... warmed by nearly 10F compared to 12Z on Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Ray don't the big cold shots in the medium and long range always moderate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 31, 2013 Author Share Posted December 31, 2013 Ray don't the big cold shots in the medium and long range always moderate It certainly seems that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 PHL's last below zero reading was 1/19/1994 when it was -5F. And that was possibly because of Mount Pinatubo.. Some of us still remember 1993. http://geography.about.com/od/globalproblemsandissues/a/pinatubo.htm Mount Pinatubo Eruption The Volcanic Mount Pinatubo Eruption of 1991 that Cooled the Planet But so far in human history, nothing compares to the Mount Krakatoa and Mount_Tambora eruptions. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1883_eruption_of_Krakatoa The final explosive eruption was heard 3,000 miles away; caused at least 36,417 deaths; produced a volcanic winter (reducing worldwide temperatures by an average of 1.2 degrees Celsius for 5 years); and was the loudest explosion in recorded history.Each explosion was accompanied by large tsunamis, which are believed to have been over 30 meters (100 ft) high in places http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Tambora In the spring and summer of 1815, a persistent dry fog was observed in the northeastern United States. The fog reddened and dimmed the sunlight, such that sunspots were visible to the naked eye. Neither wind nor rainfall dispersed the "fog". It was identified as a stratospheric sulfate aerosol veil.[6] In summer 1816, countries in the Northern Hemisphere suffered extreme weather conditions, dubbed the Year Without a Summer. Average global temperatures decreased about 0.4–0.7 °C (0.7–1.3 °F),[4] enough to cause significant agricultural problems around the globe. On 4 June 1816, frosts were reported in Connecticut, and by the following day, most of New England was gripped by the cold front. On 6 June 1816, snow fell in Albany, New York, and Dennysville, Maine.[6] Such conditions occurred for at least three months and ruined most agricultural crops in North America. Canada experienced extreme cold during that summer. Snow 30 cm (12 in) deep accumulated near Quebec City from 6 to 10 June 1816. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 And that was possibly because of Mount Pinatubo.. Some of us still remember 1993. http://geography.about.com/od/globalproblemsandissues/a/pinatubo.htm ...and, by all accounts, the previous two winters with below 0 F temperatures at PHL (1983/84 and 1984/85) were ALSO volcanic winters. I believe the 1982 El Chichon eruption in Mexico was the main culprit but there could have been additional impact from another large eruption in Indonesia in the same time frame. 1983/84 was particularly and insanely cold. Christmas Day 1983 had a high of 10 F with a low of 1 F, and that was WITHOUT snow cover in the immediate PHL area! With even a few inches of snow on the ground, who knows how cold that night might have gotten. As that winter evolved (and eventually we did get some snowcover), there was a stretch of three straight nights with below 0 F temperatures in January 1984 culminating with a low of -7 F on January 22, 1984, which was the coldest temperature at PHL in my lifetime (and I am pretty darn old. lol). 1984/85 was not nearly as continuously cold as 1983/84, but it featured one horrendous cold snap in January that included a day with a high of 8 F and a low of -6 F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 31, 2013 Author Share Posted December 31, 2013 ...and, by all accounts, the previous two winters with below 0 F temperatures at PHL (1983/84 and 1984/85) were ALSO volcanic winters. I believe the 1982 El Chichon eruption in Mexico was the main culprit but there could have been additional impact from another large eruption in Indonesia in the same time frame. 1983/84 was particularly and insanely cold. Christmas Day 1983 had a high of 10 F with a low of 1 F, and that was WITHOUT snow cover in the immediate PHL area! With even a few inches of snow on the ground, who knows how cold that night might have gotten. As that winter evolved (and eventually we did get some snowcover), there was a stretch of three straight nights with below 0 F temperatures in January 1984 culminating with a low of -7 F on January 22, 1984, which was the coldest temperature at PHL in my lifetime (and I am pretty darn old. lol). 1984/85 was not nearly as continuously cold as 1983/84, but it featured one horrendous cold snap in January that included a day with a high of 8 F and a low of -6 F. -7 is the coldest low ever recorded at PHL Airport (i.e, since 1940). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 -7 is the coldest low ever recorded at PHL Airport (i.e, since 1940). I just realized that Philadelphia's all time low temperature (-11 F) dates back to 1934 so, yup, it definitely predates PHL as a reporting station. I used to know where the "official" reporting station was prior to 1940, but my memory is not what it used to be. lol. I am pretty sure it was in Center City somewhere (maybe the Franklin Institute?), but I can see how being anyplace that is not in a swamp on the banks of a large tidal river might help squeeze out a few extra degrees on an insanely cold night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 31, 2013 Author Share Posted December 31, 2013 I just realized that Philadelphia's all time low temperature (-11 F) dates back to 1934 so, yup, it definitely predates PHL as a reporting station. I used to know where the "official" reporting station was prior to 1940, but my memory is not what it used to be. lol. I am pretty sure it was in Center City somewhere (maybe the Franklin Institute?), but I can see how being anyplace that is not in a swamp on the banks of a large tidal river might help squeeze out a few extra degrees on an insanely cold night. Its likely the airport would've been similarly cold or maybe even a little colder. The all-time records for Wilmington, Newark, New York (Central Park) and Boston were also set the same day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I think whether we get any snow on Thursday will be a factor. I remember in 94 we had a snow/ice storm before the cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 31, 2013 Author Share Posted December 31, 2013 I think whether we get any snow on Thursday will be a factor. I remember in 94 we had a snow/ice storm before the cold. Well, look who decided to show up At the airport, there was only about an inch of snow. Certainly north and west there was much more, though. Of note was that the wind was quite strong during 1994's severe cold; it wasn't "radiational" by any means, but surely the plentiful snow cover prevented any moderation of the air as it moved southeast towards the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I just realized that Philadelphia's all time low temperature (-11 F) dates back to 1934 so, yup, it definitely predates PHL as a reporting station. I used to know where the "official" reporting station was prior to 1940, but my memory is not what it used to be. lol. I am pretty sure it was in Center City somewhere (maybe the Franklin Institute?), but I can see how being anyplace that is not in a swamp on the banks of a large tidal river might help squeeze out a few extra degrees on an insanely cold night. Can't find a source, but I seem to remember that prior to the airport a hospital was used as the site -- Philly General? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Well, look who decided to show up At the airport, there was only about an inch of snow. Certainly north and west there was much more, though. Of note was that the wind was quite strong during 1994's severe cold; it wasn't "radiational" by any means, but surely the plentiful snow cover prevented any moderation of the air as it moved southeast towards the area. For that January 94 outbreak there was a small accumulation of fluff on top of a bit of ice from the ice storm. It was barely enough to cover the ground, which makes that outbreak all the more amazing. Of course, one needed to only go literally a few miles north and west of Philadelphia to get into much deeper snowcover, which obviously helped a great deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 31, 2013 Author Share Posted December 31, 2013 Can't find a source, but I seem to remember that prior to the airport a hospital was used as the site -- Philly General? In February 1934, the Philly office was at the Post Office building at 9th and Chestnut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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