CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Big changes on the 0z Nam.... Much slower. Overall better trend. Keeps precip around longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Big changes on the 0z Nam.... Much slower. Overall better trend. Keeps precip around longer. Yeah CAD was just checking that out. For the mountains this is a very nice look and it leaves a window open for pretty much all of nc, ne ga, and parts of sc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Just looking at all the model data and trying to find something positive concerning this system and there are a couple of things that we need to watch. Tonight's 0z runs will have good sample data to ingest. It may have an impact on the strength, location, and timing of this storm. There is a second piece of energy that comes up behind the primary that might keep the precip around long enough for some non-mountain locations to switch over. I know it sound like a long-shot, but it's currently being mentioned in our local point-and-click forecast. The more I look at the set-up, the more plausible it seems. If the trend is to slow this one down, then a more wintry outcome would be seen.... I am not going to dismiss this one just yet. I agree sir. Too many ifs, ands, buts about it to completely call it off for good. New years resolution......believe no snow forecast until it verifies. I've been lurking and learning since easternwx days and have never seen this much angst with the models over such an extended duration. Usually within a couple of weeks the trends are revealed. These last 90 days or so have been a game of battleship when your 10 year old opponent keeps moving his ships everytime you look away. Ugh!! Happy New Year folks and keep up the good work! Its not been 90 days. Only 30 slightly + since. Its ok to look at models for clues... but to hug one from another is foolish. While most models disagree.... something will fall 1/2 1/3 its just a matter of what not how much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Big changes on the 0z Nam.... Much slower. Overall better trend. Keeps precip around longer. Much wetter, finally seeing more precip......................but MUCH warmer too, unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Some snow on the back end for the NC folks? Get your sled out Brick! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Probabky doesn't mean anything but i've noticed moisture across the deep south and SE the last two nights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Probabky doesn't mean anything but i've noticed moisture across the deep south and SE the last two nights.We have had virga for like 20 hours from here to Texas. Areas to the west the precip is finally starting to reach the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 We have had virga for like 20 hours from here to Texas. Areas to the west the precip is finally starting to reach the ground. Looking at radar it looks like rain from Texas to S outh Carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Looking at radar it looks like rain from Texas to S outh Carolina.It's finally reaching the ground. -RN currently. Took 20+ hours for it to finally start reaching the ground. It wasn't supposed to start raining though till tomorrow afternoon so we are way ahead of schedule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Some snow on the back end for the NC folks? Get your sled out Brick! That would match with what Blacksburg and Wakefield showing. Still snow in the grids along the va border. THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTHCAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR VERY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THURSDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND NORTH OF U.S. 460. MOST LOCATIONS WILL ONLY SEE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AIR HOWEVER. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...VERY COLD AIR AND GUSTY WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT WINTRY WEATHER BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...WITH VERY COLD AIR AND GUSTY WINDS IN ITS WAKE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 12z Nam continues the wet trend. It has more moisture after 850's drop than the GFS, which is bone dry. Still not expecting anything unless we see that system dig deeper and slow down some more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 12z Nam continues the wet trend. It has more moisture after 850's drop than the GFS, which is bone dry. Still not expecting anything unless we see that system dig deeper and slow down some more. I'm guessing the precip is like 6 hours ahead of the map with the 0 line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I'm guessing the precip is like 6 hours ahead of the map with the 0 line? Well, upon further investigation of the high res Nam hour-by-hour plots, the back edge is coming through after 850's are <0c. However the surface temps will be too warm as they are modeled to be in the 40-43 degree range at that time. Not looking promising for anything here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Considering I've not seen even a flurry IMBY the past two winters, can't help but keep an eye out tomorrow evening. SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA219 PM EST WED JAN 1 2014GAZ001>009-011>016-019-020730-DADE-WALKER-CATOOSA-WHITFIELD-MURRAY-FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS-CHATTOOGA-GORDON-PICKENS-DAWSON-LUMPKIN-WHITE-FLOYD-219 PM EST WED JAN 1 2014...LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA THURSDAYNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES THURSDAY NIGHTTHROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTIS EXPECTED TO BE ALL RAIN...BUT AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THEREGION SOME PRECIPITATION IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT MAY CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA.LOCATIONS ABOVE 1500 FEET ARE MOST LIKELY TO SEE ACCUMULATINGSNOWS. THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW AREEXPECTED AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FEET.A RAIN AND SNOW MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE METROPOLITANATLANTA AREA...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 The NAM still looks to me like it's spitting out light snow tomorrow night for us upstate and NGA folks, or am I missing something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 To my untrained eye the 0z Nam looks much better for folks in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Funny how the wetbulbs are at freezing across most of the Triad. In fact air temps are 34 @ Burlington and several mid 30's around Lexington Albermarle. Even at or below freezing in northern mtns/foothills. So close if only the northern wave would have dug a little futher south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Funny how the wetbulbs are at freezing across most of the Triad. In fact air temps are 34 @ Burlington and several mid 30's around Lexington Albermarle. Even at or below freezing in northern mtns/foothills. So close if only the northern wave would have dug a little futher south.31 here but 850 temps above freezing. Yeah the vort and surface low are too far north for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Well...put me in the department of not seeing some flakes for a very long time... here's to hoping for some token flakes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 To my untrained eye the 0z Nam looks much better for folks in NC. It's cold chasing the moisture. As soon as it gets cold enough east of the mountains, the precip is gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 It's cold chasing the moisture. As soon as it gets cold enough east of the mountains, the precip is gone. It's deja vu all over again. I am getting sick of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 This is actually a decent rainmaker IMBY, at least. Sort of an overperformer in that regard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 This is actually a decent rainmaker IMBY, at least. Sort of an overperformer in that regard.How much are you at for the event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D-Money Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 18z gfs is painting 1/2" snow for SEVA and Extreme NE NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 How much are you at for the event? 0.27" as of 5 PM, but it's still coming down. Most models had us with a tenth or two, at best, yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSU2005 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Sure does...I'm in Corolla through the weekend and hoping to see some flakes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 This is actually a decent rainmaker IMBY, at least. Sort of an overperformer in that regard. That it has been. If we could get a overperforming snow I'd be happy for the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 That it has been. If we could get a overperforming snow I'd be happy for the year. Yep, I'm up to 0.40" now and rain continues, though it should shut off soon. Rates have been pretty good (would have been 0.5-1"/hr if it were snow, haha). It looks like DCA is going for the streak-breaker tonight and will probably reach 1.5" to break their infamous streak since their last 1.5"+ snowfall (January 2011). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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