Potential Winter Storm Jan 3 - 4

[franklin NCwx]

Meh, would like to see it dig a little more like the ukie.

[BIG FROSTY]

Just what I was told by a Met in an email for my area most likely what will happen, N.Foothills same old crap down sloping dry slot for me. Might get lucky enough to get a flurry or two before it dries up?

[TropoFold]

Just what I was told by a Met in an email for my area most likely what will happen, N.Foothills same old crap down sloping dry slot for me. Might get lucky enough to get a flurry or two before it dries up?

 

Lee side has looked awful for this particular storm. Maybe the next one. Need some significant moisture to not go to our south and east.

[Hvward]

I think a good thing to take from this run is that it is a step in the right direction.  Now that we are within the 72 hr time frame consistency  is key and I believe we are seeing something close to that tonight.  That doesn't mean things won't change in the am, but right now I think the trend is our friend.

[superjames1992]

The maps I'm looking at suck, but it looks like the UK Met is really suppressed.

In fact, I think it might be a hit for at least N NC/TN (a "hit" doesn't mean much these days).

[franklin NCwx]

The maps I'm looking at suck, but it looks like the UK Met is really suppressed.

In fact, I think it might be a hit for at least N NC.

post them.

[superjames1992]

post them.

 

 

 

850s look good enough for NW NC, but are crashing.  Precip appears to be continuing.  No clue on surface temperatures......

 

I really don't know, though.  Meteocentre is not updating.  The UK Met has a bias towards suppression, anyways, doesn't it?

[Marion_NC_WX]

This storm isn't going to produce much snow on a synoptic scale but this looks like the first good widespread Northwest flow event for Western North Carolina, might even be good enough to give Asheville a good dusting.

 

 

***The big story when all is said and done will be the cold...0z GFS has come colder, looking like some single digits Friday and Saturday morning in the mountains, maybe some numbers approaching 10 in the foothill counties...Friday stays below freezing for about  80 percent of North Carolina and the Upper half of South Carolina...several areas west of I-77 may not go above freezing until Sunday afternoon.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[HKY18]

Ukie has been consistent with the miller A idea. Usually in the past when it was this consistent in ended up verifying. But not always

[TropoFold]

Here is what the national weather service said

 

Leaning toward GFS solution at this point as far as timing and
precipitation amounts...and even somewhat colder air. This would still
not bring any precipitation into the west until late in Thursday with
upper trough...but then the back side of precipitation shield with
developing surface low may also be reaching into southeast portions of
forecast area by late in the day. There is still a chance this could
all end up east of the forecast area...but looking less likely at this
point. Boundary layer temperatures will be close to rain/snow line...and
with very dry air initially there could be some sleet pellets or
some snow...but think eventually boundary layer will be too warm
for much of any snow accumulate with this area on west side of low. Any
precipitation moving into mountains more likely rain/snow mix or all snow
as the evening continues. There is also a chance that surface low to
the east develops more strongly and pulls colder air in
faster...for some light snow accums Thursday night in more
locations...including out east. This system is not on the West
Coast yet and we may need another 24-36 hours before we get a better
handle on what may happen with this system. Would say the trends
suggest a little more concern than 24 hours ago though...so this
certainly will be watched closely. 

[Thrasher Fan]

Anyone up for a pbp on the euro later?

[Reb]

here here thrasher

[superjames1992]

The Euro killed it.  That was fun.

[valkhorn]

The Euro killed it.  That was fun.

 

Killed it can mean many things. Please elaborate...

 

Besides, it doesn't seem like you like the Euro

[griteater]

UKMet has always liked it in the deep south...it should be the official model of the SE forum.

 

[superjames1992]

Killed it can mean many things. Please elaborate...

 

Besides, it doesn't seem like you like the Euro

 

Well, I can't really elaborate too much because I am only looking at the free 24-hour panels, but I think it's safe to say there's no snow on this side of the mountains, at least.  It doesn't dig nearly as much.  Perhaps someone with Euro access can elaborate, though.

 

EDIT: The clown maps show nothing in NC outside the mountains, 0.5-1" in the Tri-Cities, nothing in Knoxville, and ~1" in Nashville.

 

On second thought, now that I take a look at WxBell, it's closer than I thought.  It brings a period of precipitation across TN/NC between hrs 72-78, which drop a few tenths of QPF with 850s crashing, but it's cold chasing the moisture, as modeled.

[Reb]

PV in Illinois @ 168

[GaWx]

The "big tease" (0Z Tue run ) now has 850's as cold as -22 C at Atl as of hour 174, which would be one colder than the coldest since 1950! At the surface, it has a high at Atl of only about 20 and only about 32 at Savannah. Insane!

Edit: More big tease. SE snowstorm 1/9 fwiw complements of a weak Miller A. Several inches in many cases incl. ATL.

[Thrasher Fan]

Based on the 6z NAM, outside of the high elevations of the NC mtns., this thread is pretty much cooked.

 

More fun potentially down the road however as stated in the pinned pattern thread.

[AirNelson39]

I don't understand why no one ever gives any details in regards to the mtns, everyone always says "nothing outside of the mtns" well tell us what is in the mtns then! This isn't an imby post but a rant on lack of acknowledgment for the mtns.

[franklin NCwx]

I don't understand why no one ever gives any details in regards to the mtns, everyone always says "nothing outside of the mtns" well tell us what is in the mtns then! This isn't an imby post but a rant on lack of acknowledgment for the mtns.

check the mtn snow thread. We usually post more over there. Looks like light snow with upslope to follow on Thursday.

[FLweather]

 

UKMet has always liked it in the deep south...it should be the official model of the SE forum.

 

 

 

That doesn't look bad. Really not too far off from the euro. Yes euro is a cold chasing moisture event too.

 

 

But still think it is too early to completely write off this event altogether. Both Blacksburg and Wakefield has snow in the grids for the immediate Va border and and a couple counties to the west.

 

 

 

SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE OFFING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A COMPLEX

FORECAST PERIOD LOOMS. A STRONG SHORT-WAVE IS FORECAST TO CREST THE

VERY RESILIENT E PAC/WESTERN US RIDGE AND DROP SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE

SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY. MODELS OFTEN HAVE DIFFICULTY IN

HANDLING THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF POORLY SAMPLED PACIFIC OCEAN

IMPULSES SUCH AS THIS SO QUESTIONS CONTINUE ABOUT DEGREE AND

POSITION OF PHASING OF THIS FEATURE WITH THE SHARPENING NORTHERN

STREAM. 12Z/30 EC MODEL HAD BEEN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AMONG MEDIUM

RANGE MODELS WITH EARLY PHASING AND SPUN UP A INITIAL SURFACE LOW

OVER TN VALLEY WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE PRECIPITATION BUT RECENTLY

ARRIVING 00Z/31 VERSION IS CONSIDERABLY LESS DEVELOPED AND MUCH

CLOSER TO 00Z GFS WHICH BRINGS OUT A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM SOUTH OF

THE CWA DURING THE DAY THUR WITH MAINLY LIGHT QPF. USED A EC/GFS

MODEL BLEND FOR QPF WHICH AMOUNTS TO AROUND 0.10 INCHES FOR 12-HOURS

ENDING EARLY FRIDAY. PRECIP WILL BEGIN AS RAIN AND SHOULD CHANGE TO

SNOW MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AT THIS TIME ONLY A DUSTING TO HALF-

INCH EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOW BEGINS TO PHASE AND

STRENGTHEN JUST OFF NC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT HEADING INTO THE NORTH

ATLANTIC POSSIBLY AFFECTING NEW ENGLAND.

[burgertime]

I think this goose is pretty much cooked...but watch the NAM it's coming further SW with that energy coming out of the north. It then gets scooped up by the northern energy it phases with. If there is more separation and that energy comes in further south there could be some fun and games had for someone. 

[tarheelwx]

12z nam looks like a swing and a miss for the northeast and New England as well.

TW

[Marion_NC_WX]

Boy, this thread sure has died quickly...who would have imagined that?

[chapelhillwx]

Boy, this thread sure has died quickly...who would have imagined that?

A demise as premature as its creation.

[Marion_NC_WX]

A demise as premature as its creation.

 

 

With 6 hours left in 2013....congrats on Post of the Year honors!

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

   Just looking at all the model data and trying to find something positive concerning this system and there are a couple of things that we need to watch. Tonight's 0z runs will have good sample data to ingest. It may have an impact on the strength, location, and timing of this storm. There is a second piece of energy that comes up behind the primary that might keep the precip around long enough for some non-mountain locations to switch over. I know it sound like a long-shot, but it's currently being mentioned in our local point-and-click forecast. The more I look at the set-up, the more plausible it seems. If the trend is to slow this one down, then a more wintry outcome would be seen.... I am not going to dismiss this one just yet.

[kvegas-wx]

New years resolution......believe no snow forecast until it verifies. I've been lurking and learning since easternwx days and have never seen this much angst with the models over such an extended duration. Usually within a couple of weeks the trends are revealed. These last 90 days or so have been a game of battleship when your 10 year old opponent keeps moving his ships everytime you look away. Ugh!!

Happy New Year folks and keep up the good work!

[Brick Tamland]

The "big tease" (0Z Tue run ) now has 850's as cold as -22 C at Atl as of hour 174, which would be one colder than the coldest since 1950! At the surface, it has a high at Atl of only about 20 and only about 32 at Savannah. Insane!

Edit: More big tease. SE snowstorm 1/9 fwiw complements of a weak Miller A. Several inches in many cases incl. ATL.

 

Maybe I should have waited and started a thread on that. Only 10 days out!