winterymix Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I'm liking my chances for epic virga via the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Honestly now I feel it is a personal challenge to make the EURO. Way to live life on the wild side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Well as long as that 850 low continues to consistently move through ohio and across PA, the dry hole is likely. I haven't seen that 850 low move much at all on the GFS or NAM the last several runs. The 850 is where I need to see some definite improvement to hold out any hope on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I have seen this many times before. 12z will bring us back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I have seen this many times before. 12z will bring us back. Us? We ain't lookin for a heat wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Well as long as that 850 low continues to consistently move through ohio and across PA, the dry hole is likely. I haven't seen that 850 low move much at all on the GFS or NAM the last several runs. The 850 is where I need to see some definite improvement to hold out any hope on this. That's not the problem anymore. This isn't a classic miller b. It's a hybrid where there really isn't a primary fooking us. The southern low forms plenty south. The strength and track of that one sucks. Focus on that failure and not the weak overunning to our north. They aren't connected with any significance. We can still fail huge but not at the hands of anything north of us. I blame nc for sticking out so far to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 That's not the problem anymore. This isn't a classic miller b. It's a hybrid where there really isn't a primary fooking us. The southern low forms plenty south. The strength and track of that one sucks. Focus on that failure and not the weak overunning to our north. They aren't connected with any significance. We can still fail huge but not at the hands of anything north of us. I blame nc for sticking out so far to the east. That 850 is acting like a kicker on the southern low if you ask me. I do believe it's why the dry hole is there in va, and I'll be continuing to watch it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Hopefully the euro caves in an hour...it should..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 That 850 is acting like a kicker on the southern low if you ask me. I do believe it's why the dry hole is there in va, and I'll be continuing to watch it. Yeah, and the 850-mb center is a lot more diffuse or "baggy" compared to the good 12Z run. That one had a much tighter looking circulation, in fact there were two centers, and a nice southeast fetch off the ocean feeding into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 GGEM, NAVGEM and UKMET all look similar to the GFS. everythings banking on the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I can't think of any miller A, Miller A hybrids, or Miller Bs in which we did well with a closed 850 over Northeast ohio, but anyway we all know this is a low probability event at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 GGEM, NAVGEM and UKMET all look similar to the GFS. everythings banking on the EURO. Those all had it more or less scooting out to sea now, too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Those all had it more or less scooting out to sea now, too?The trough orientation and good precip through 72. Would imply a nice hit for the MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Whatever it's worth the 00Z GFS looks totally fugly going out in time. It pretty much lifts the flow well to the north. Looks a fair bit different compared to earlier solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The trough orientation and good precip through 72. Would imply a nice hit for the MA. Huh...OK. Just from Amped's wording I thought he meant those models are now similar to the 00Z GFS evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The trough orientation and good precip through 72. Would imply a nice hit for the MA. I am going to guess this is the UKIE you are describing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I can't think of any miller A, Miller A hybrids, or Miller Bs in which we did well with a closed 850 over Northeast ohio, but anyway we all know this is a low probability event at this point. I think the 850mb low to our NW is ok if it swings through....in this case it goes to our north when it comes through....plus there are a million other things wrong with the storm...we've done ok with 850 lows to our west or NW, but other factors were significantly in our favor...like 2/25/07...even PD2 had an 850 low to our west....I think what Wes said about east based blocking is a big factor here...there is no blocking over Iceland...so the flow is too fast and the storm like a magnet follows the ridge to our northeast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I am going to guess this is the UKIE you are describing?Yes sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The euro usually locks in the 3-4 day range.... Unless it's showing dc significant snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Yes sir. Figured when you stopped at 72. UKIE has been the constant one showing a hit, no? A hit as in over an inch of snow that is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The euro usually locks in the 3-4 day range.... Unless it's showing dc significant snow it also caves quite a bit too...But maybe its higher res is keying in on smaller features that the other globals arent picking up yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 NAVGEM is actually a bit better than it looked on the site. Improvement over the GFS for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 It's rare that it caves on Noreasters in the 3-4 day range. 5-7 days....all the time. I've seen it be very stubborn with all guidance against it and win But when it shows snow for dc...you throw out all the rules and brace for the worst. You should go to bed now knowing euro gives you 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I think the 850mb low to our NW is ok if it swings through....in this case it goes to our north when it comes through....plus there are a million other things wrong with the storm...The intriguing part is the vort track. That part offsets some of the problems with a typical northern low miller b setup. Not saying it's some sort of magic juju to make it all good. But comparing our typical miller b where the vort is further n and closer to overhead isn't apples to apples. We can easily still get whiffed by both lows but I can't bail with a low popping so far south. This isn't a standard north of Columbus oh to the Delmarva. Much more disconnected and spread out. Win lose or draw, radar will tease. 12z euro ens were pretty bullish. I don't expect much of a cave tonight. Maybe tomorrow though. If its full blown cave at least I can have fun reading dt's fb page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 sorry my source for the ukmet was the wrong run unfortunately, and with that its gfs-esque Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 It's rare that it caves on Noreasters in the 3-4 day range. 5-7 days....all the time. I've seen it be very stubborn with all guidance against it and win But when it shows snow for dc...you throw out all the rules and brace for the worst. You should go to bed now knowing euro gives you 7 it doesnt usually swing wildly...it is stubborn....so it is entirely possible it keeps the good solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 sorry my source for the ukmet was the wrong run unfortunately, and with that its gfs-esqueLuckily the UKMET is a terrible model and can be ignored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Luckily the UKMET is a terrible model and can be ignored. It was a day ahead of the Euro in showing basically what the Euro shows now. I would not discount it like you are. It is definitely not great with east coast winter storms but it is better than the GGEM which is talked about a lot more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 here it comes http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42192-big-snow-threat-what-will-it-do-part-ii/?p=2589520 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 here it comes http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42192-big-snow-threat-what-will-it-do-part-ii/?p=2589520 Avert your eyes it is going to be ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.