snow. Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Look at the 500mb shortwave, theres no way the surface low should be placed where it is, trust me, you want it to be where it is showing it right now. If anything I'm even happier. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 It sucksOf all the posters here Matt, I figured it would be least likely to have you just throwing out these statements. Regardless of what model is right, Bob's post above is a much better explanation of the GFS. To say it sucks is not really the right statement, 18z sucked. Whether the gfs is right or the euro or neither, its impossible to find success living and dying by each run. Obviously you know more than most and taking the gfs verbatim probably isn't the play at this point, especially with as much variability as we've had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Baby steps with the gfs toward the Euro. I like the trend. It's not baby steps. It's a big dis-improvement from the 12z run. It's better than the 18z run but that run sucked. This one sucks less but it still sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Probably smart to realize that only one run of the euro was great. I'd really like to think it is right. That's the thing.. that run of the Euro was an outlier even among the other runs of the Euro. I know everyone loves the Euro like it's their family but still. It hasn't quite been the easy-to-recognize king of late at least from my view. I mean, I still lean toward it myself if it's 50/50 probably.. but it has its biases etc. Who knows.. if it holds at 0z that's something, though we've got plenty of time yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Hilarious play-by-play. I was scrolling assuming it was great and then nothing. Lol Same here. Northarlington's post is the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Baby steps with the gfs toward the Euro. I like the trend. I don't see a trend toward the euro. The euro is deeper and slower. If anything this run is faster than the 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Of all the posters here Matt, I figured it would be least likely to have you just throwing out these statements. Regardless of what model is right, Bob's post above is a much better explanation of the GFS. To say it sucks is not really the right statement, 18z sucked. Whether the gfs is right or the euro or neither, its impossible to find success living and dying by each run. Obviously you know more than most and taking the gfs verbatim probably isn't the play at this point, especially with as much variability as we've had. it's called frustration, that's all....and well deserved too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The ads aren't letting me quote things on my phone. I'm still optimistic, this storm does change every time the models run through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Of all the posters here Matt, I figured it would be least likely to have you just throwing out these statements. Regardless of what model is right, Bob's post above is a much better explanation of the GFS. To say it sucks is not really the right statement, 18z sucked. Whether the gfs is right or the euro or neither, its impossible to find success living and dying by each run. Obviously you know more than most and taking the gfs verbatim probably isn't the play at this point, especially with as much variability as we've had. It is a bad run...It gives us a glorified cartopper here in DC metro..and it is entirely reasonable meteorologically.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Not to be overly pessimistic here, but we usually do this song and dance between the Euro/GFS closer to hour 100/120. At Hour 75- we are usually getting to the point where one of these models is going to fold in the next model cycle or two. Given 2 fairly consistent GFS runs..one has to think...yeaa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Is the Euro running? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 It is a bad run...It gives us a glorified cartopper here in DC metro..and it is entirely reasonable meteorologically.. I will admit that it's close fwiw. The southern low is organized with plenty of moisture to our south. The corner is hard to turn verbatim. And is very reasonable. Can't really punt it but the caveats are stark this run. Even if the euro holds it's not that big of a confidence boost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Is the Euro running? It's only about half way through the storm so far but it has about 6-10 and it's still ripping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Is the Euro running? Details in about 30 min. Nah, not until after 1 am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 It is a bad run...It gives us a glorified cartopper here in DC metro..and it is entirely reasonable meteorologically.. It takes us above freezing prior to the snow flurries, so I don't even think the snow flurries would come down hard enough to whiten a cartop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Is the Euro running? yes....it gives us 3 feet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 It was clear to most of us that the troff was digging further east than 18z by 30hrs and was going to show the same or less than 18z. We decided it would be funnier if we kept quite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 yes....it gives us 3 feet wow you got the whole run fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I will admit that it's close fwiw. The southern low is organized with plenty of moisture to our south. The corner is hard to turn verbatim. And is very reasonable. Can't really punt it but the caveats are stark this run. Even if the euro holds it's not that big of a confidence boost. Agree Bob, we need both on board. We need the American models to slow down. I'm sure the euro depth at 500 is what's slowing it. We need that, badly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I will admit that it's close fwiw. The southern low is organized with plenty of moisture to our south. The corner is hard to turn verbatim. And is very reasonable. Can't really punt it but the caveats are stark this run. Even if the euro holds it's not that big of a confidence boost. I am not totally discouraged.....it just isnt a great run...the euro could still be right...or at least more right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Thought someone said the EURO started at 11. Cannot last much longer without sleep. Also am being made fun of by Ian and Mart, which makes me very sad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Thought someone said the EURO started at 11. Cannot last much longer without sleep. understood...please get some rest...we'll miss your input, but your health and rest is important... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Paq Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Thought someone said the EURO started at 11. Cannot last much longer without sleep. Also am being made fun of by Ian and Mart, which makes me very sad. It starts a little before 1am, bud. Get some rest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Thought someone said the EURO started at 11. Cannot last much longer without sleep. Most don't make the Euro. Might as well sleep. Knowing what a model shows won't change whatever the storm ends up as. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Honestly now I feel it is a personal challenge to make the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Thought someone said the EURO started at 11. Cannot last much longer without sleep. Also am being made fun of by Ian and Mart, which makes me very sad. Mart was kidding.. I'm just mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Honestly now I feel it is a personal challenge to make the EURO. take any random thoughts to the banter thread so wxusaf doesn't have to work really hard when he returns http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41896-december-banter-thread-2/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I am not totally discouraged.....it just isnt a great run...the euro could still be right...or at least more right... This run looks pretty much like a middle ground of the members. The vort is faster than the 12z run. That's not helping but h5 is still fine. Wouldn't take much to pop the surface low quicker and stronger. We need more push against confluence and the pv lobe wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Thought someone said the EURO started at 11. Cannot last much longer without sleep. Also am being made fun of by Ian and Mart, which makes me very sad. I just feel like we need you down the stretch and I don't want to see you burn out too early... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 This weenie is the worst in years Must be a novelty account. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.