Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 It could still be right...or the 18Z GFS could be right. Nothing really has changed except the southern track is looking more likely.That trend is good. We need that first and foremost. What happens off the coast is a nailbiter of nearly 3 year proportions. And we have to wait days.....long days...Please stay up for an hour....I'll get high end coffee delivered.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 remember those days when we thought we couldn't get dry slotted by a miller A that took a perfect track? we were so cute and precious then...Now we assume it is the default solution. Just to add some content...the ridge is in a much better position than boxing day...I think the idea of a complete whiff is less likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 NAM is better but I don't care it's the NAM. The further southwest the troff digs, the better the chance that the moist plume from the western gulf gets pulled into the storm. As seen on the crazy gefs members the euro is not the upper limit what could happen. The 18z GFS and CMC are about the lower limit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 remember those days when we thought we couldn't get dry slotted by a miller A that took a perfect track? we were so cute and precious then...Now we assume it is the default solution. Just to add some content...the ridge is in a much better position than boxing day...I think the idea of a complete whiff is less likely That was back when it was possible to get an areawide 4-6 inch storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Matt, I agree about the ridge but there will be a dryslot of sorts with this setup. It's not a mega blob tracking the gc and turning the corner. So there will be a gap between the weak northern energy and southern track. Precip shield to the West of the low won't be nearly as expansive as a sweet miller a. I know you know this but nothing can take the justified paranoia away from me. Boxing day was a personal tragic comedy for me. On the heels of 09-10 it was simple going in. We get pounded because that's how we roll...lol....and then the following years were like psychiatric behavior modification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Boxing day was my first forecast snow after moving back to the region from several years in the middle east. New wife in tow, I told her to wait and see the amazing east coast blizzard... 24 hours later, some rain falls. It was painful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 31, 2013 Author Share Posted December 31, 2013 Good so far. Two pieces of energy connected this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Are we weenie-ing out and extrapolating?...if so, trough sharper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Vort is more juiced at hr 57. come on man...do it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 31, 2013 Author Share Posted December 31, 2013 One helluva a jet streak at 250mb over the EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Gulf is open for business at 60. Tons of moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 How is the GFS looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benchmark Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Forget the snowhole its a snow crack at 72hrs! And im right in the middle of it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 How is the GFS looking?Much better! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 hopefully the euro caves tonight, so I can stop following this nonsense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 An inch maybe. Looks a lot like the nam, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 It's just so much faster than the euro. And not as deep of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 GFS, not caving on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 It's a big improvement from 18z but isn't there yet. Broad 1000mb+ circ off obx with ene trajectory. Dryslot is problematic. It's a good run for trends but not verbatim. NE areas of md do the best. Not surprising given the setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 at least we have a wide variety of opinions on the run lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Hilarious play-by-play. I was scrolling assuming it was great and then nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The Euro is too amped like it always is. The GFS is probably closer to right. Buy American. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 It's a big improvement from 18z but isn't there yet. Broad 1000mb+ circ off obx with ene trajectory. Dryslot is problematic. It's a good run for trends but not verbatim. NE areas of md do the best. Not surprising given the setup. but it's been a fast flow all year so we can't discount it by any means Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The Euro is too amped like it always is for the mid atlantic. The GFS is probably closer to right. Buy American. fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 at least we have a wide variety of opinions on the run lol Hilarious play-by-play. I was scrolling assuming it was great and then nothing. It sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 but it's been a fast flow all year so we can't discount it by any means I'm not discounting it at all. It's right in line with what I have been expecting. Weak lp tracking ene off obx won't get the job done. It's close to a good run but that's about it. We need some amp in front of the vort. I'm not impressed but not punting. That's all I can say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Baby steps with the gfs toward the Euro. I like the trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Look at the 500mb shortwave, theres no way the surface low should be placed where it is, trust me, you want it to be where it is showing it right now. If anything I'm even happier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The Euro is too amped like it always is. The GFS is probably closer to right. Buy American. Probably smart to realize that only one run of the euro was great. I'd really like to think it is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 SREF in the all or nothing camp, mainly the latter Having this just scoot south and develop offshore would be kind of funny in the end.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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