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January 2/3 Event - Disco., Nowcasting, and Obs.


wxmeddler

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I don't trust the RAP.  Gald to see it wet but that doesn't make me any more confident about the forecast. If the euro came in with a rap solution, then maybe I'd start getting stoked.

RAP/HRRR has some value especially shorter term but they are like the NAM on steroids when it comes to spitting out all sorts of random solutions that don't verify.  

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I don't trust the RAP.  Gald to see it wet but that doesn't make me any more confident about the forecast. If the euro came in with a rap solution, then maybe I'd start getting stoked.

 

Neither do I. I just like seeing the pivot. Precip could be stubborn pulling out from the cities east. Hard to say how much falls. Rap shows .4+ over the cities. Definitely an outlier. 

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RAP/HRRR has some value especially shorter term but they are like the NAM on steroids when it comes to spitting out all sorts of random solutions that don't verify.  

Which is why it is better to treat it like a time-lagged ensemble versus individual deterministic runs.  I know people would like to infer trends since it is run hourly, but I'm not sure how useful it is in that regard.

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