Amped Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 No so happy hour It's 18z, NWS never jumps ship on an 18z cycle, why should we? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Let's all step outside of this storm for a moment and take a look at how mean mother nature could be. Look at this gigantic snow hole. Holy crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 It's 18z, NWS never jumps ship on an 18z cycle, why should we? No ship jumping unless you are sure it's going to snow. 18z is a stark example of what can go wrong even with the more southern track. Right or wrong it's quite possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 This is one of the most likely runs I've seen all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 It's 18z gfs toss it. Not even sure why they run off hour anymore. They never show a reliable solution. We've had met after met say that that isn't true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Coastal is talking about sne. It's not better here. Basically the shaft. Secondary mostly skips us. Redevelopment too far east. The vort track's not bad and it has a southern track which makes me happy. Could still get dry slotted but with that vort track and a southern low, I won't lose sleep over the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The vort track's not bad and it has a southern track which makes me happy. Could still get dry slotted but with that vort track and a southern low, I won't lose sleep over the run. This gives me incredible confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The vort tracks not bad and it has a southern track which makes me happy. Could still get dry slotted but with that vort track and a southern low, I won't lose sleep over the run. I'm definitely more encouraged today for obvious reasons. Southern track and losing the ohv low is a big big step. But it still comes with its caveats. Unfortunately, we can get runs like this at very short leads when everything prior is screaming big snow. Inside of 2 days. I know you know this. Just pointing it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The vort track's not bad and it has a southern track which makes me happy. Could still get dry slotted but with that vort track and a southern low, I won't lose sleep over the run. Weenies getting off the ledge now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 This gives me incredible confidence. It's a lot easier to lose sleep over the 0z runs anyway since it's closer to sleep time. No worries. People actually think it's going to snow here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Somebody correct me if this is wrong. I read a post a while back, I think by wxUSA that said the features driving this weren't in the NAM grid. If so, wouldn't the key pieces be in data poor areas? And, isn't the euro data sampling supposedly superior? Under those conditions isn't the euro more likely to be closer to the more correct solution? Or am I completely out in left field? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The vort track's not bad and it has a southern track which makes me happy. Could still get dry slotted but with that vort track and a southern low, I won't lose sleep over the run. The cold air is there as a result. If there was precip on the run it would probably be 75% snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Somebody correct me if this is wrong. I read a post a while back, I think by wxUSA that said the features driving this weren't in the NAM grid. If so, wouldn't the key pieces be in data poor areas? And, isn't the euro data sampling supposedly superior? Under those conditions isn't the euro more likely to be closer to the more correct solution? Or am I completely out in left field? Wxmeddler said that. No clue the answers to the rest of your questions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 It's a lot easier to lose sleep over the 0z runs anyway since it's closer to sleep time. No worries. People actually think it's going to snow here? Banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 It's a lot easier to lose sleep over the 0z runs anyway since it's closer to sleep time. No worries. People actually think it's going to snow here? I never see the 00Z runs so I don't lose sleep over them. I may see the Nam today but suspect it will keep it's north solution for awhile. I'm doing another article tomorrow with you and Dan being editors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Wakefield this morning in their AFD said that the storm won't be well modeled until late today and tomorrow when the storm reaches the Pacific NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The vort track's not bad and it has a southern track which makes me happy. Could still get dry slotted but with that vort track and a southern low, I won't lose sleep over the run. Saw someone post a snapshot of the 18Z GFS on Facebook talking about convective feedback on hour 78 and circling that large mass off the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 No ship jumping unless you are sure it's going to snow. 18z is a stark example of what can go wrong even with the more southern track. Right or wrong it's quite possible. Exactly. Still so many ways for this to go bad. We have to have a wound up vort. If not 18Z is what you get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I never see the 00Z runs so I don't lose sleep over them. I may see the Nam today but suspect it will keep it's north solution for awhile. I'm doing another article tomorrow with you and Dan being editors. I may get back on the ledge. I remember back in the day during the times when we actually had storms, you used to be up for the 0Z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 With the 850 mb low jumping at our latitude or north of it consistently on all the models, the dry slot and boxing day scenario is a strong possibility. Wish we could nudge that 850 mb low down toward richmond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I never see the 00Z runs so I don't lose sleep over them. I may see the Nam today but suspect it will keep it's north solution for awhile. I'm doing another article tomorrow with you and Dan being editors. I might have to drop in some "bullseyes to 2' over DC" language. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I wouldnt be too concerned about the 18z GFS...sure a weaker/later forming coastal with a dry slot is a possiblity of giving us a big screw job but at least guidance has went away from the classic Miller B screw job of having a main primary low in Ohio with re-development near Jersey and a New England pummel. Pretty sure 18z GFS tends to have a southeast bias anyways, thing is ECMWF may be classicaly over-amplified as it tends to do, so for now lets blend the 12z GFS and 12z ECMWF, and we're looking good for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Could someone explain convective feedback? I see it mentioned all of the time with regard to models but have no idea what it means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Also it appears a rain maker generally is out of the cards...appears to be either a snow event, or nothing so Im good with that 50/50 chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 So we go from suppressed, to rain, to snowstorm, to OTS. This one has a little of everything. Wonder what happens next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Could someone explain convective feedback? I see it mentioned all of the time with regard to models but have no idea what it means. The GFS generates a bogus low pressure due to convective activity. In reality the thunderstorms are smaller than it's grid-scale and most of the time don't end up generating enough latent heat to create an actual synaptic scale low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 12z ens members are a big improvement for DC. 25 members give 2" or more of snow and only 12 show no snow. The rest are light snow. 7 of the 25 are over 6" The mean is about 3". ETA: at least 15 members give us snow with the next storm 2. Not worried about that one though. ETA: selfish post....31 members give me 2"+ and the mean is about 4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 12z ens members are a big improvement for DC. 25 members give 2" or more of snow and only 12 show no snow. The rest are light snow. 7 of the 25 are over 6" The mean is about 3". ETA: at least 15 members give us snow with the next storm 2. Not worried about that one though. ETA: selfish post....31 members give me 2"+ and the mean is about 4". 18z ensembles are much better than OP as well (obviously)...almost 0.50" to DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 18z ensembles are much better than OP as well (obviously)...almost 0.50" to DCAYeah there are 4 euro like solutions in the 12 I see.In the overall scheme they may be better than the 12 z members were. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I hate the waiting. Anyone who tells you they know at this point is lying. The Euros solution doesn't have much support from other models, or margin for error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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