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January 2/3 Event - Disco., Nowcasting, and Obs.


wxmeddler

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There are signs of this back to even west of DC...latest GFS kind of matches the idea of the latest rap and is showing much more of a pivot and backbuild..than the models were showing yesterday

 

12zGFS now has DC in snow until around 3am, with probably around 0.35" QPF

 

Yeah man, it's doing it at 6z in the omega fields for sure. I'll post more when I look more closely. Great trends today!

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There are signs of this back to even west of DC...latest GFS kind of matches the idea of the latest rap and is showing much more of a pivot and backbuild..than the models were showing yesterday

 

12zGFS now has DC in snow until around 3am, with probably around 0.35" QPF

Verbatim on the GFS, the snow would start sticking on grass *before* 10 pm for DC northward.

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Verbatim on the GFS, the snow would start sticking on grass *before* 10 pm for DC northward.

 

yes..I'm curious if we hit 40 today, though with low pressure to our west we could always spike later this afternoon

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The 12z GFS just sets up for disappointment...  We are talking about shifts of 20 miles that would have huge ramifications.

 

we could always be dryslotted/shift east...I don't think we are set up for disappointment....DCA now has 17 consecutive events of 0.1" - 1.4" with 15 below an inch....none of us would be surprised if we get a dusting or even less

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Here are the last 17 accumulating snow events for DCA (since 1/26/11),....I'm pretty sure we are properly conditioned to be let down...Sure..there will be some brief disappointment, but we know the drill

 

1/28/11 - 0.6"

2/9/11 - 0.1"

2/21-22/11 - 0.4"

3/27/11 - 0.2"

1/9/12 - 0.6"

1/20-21/12 - 1.1"

2/11-12/12 - 0.3"

12/26/12 - 0.2"

1/24/13 - 0.4"

1/25/13 - 0.4"

1/28/13 - 0.1"

2/1/13 - 0.2"

2/2/13 - 0.2"

3/6/13 - 0.2"

3/25/13 - 1.4"

12/8/13 - 0.6"

12/10/13 - 0.9"

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Here are the last 17 accumulating snow events for DCA (since 1/26/11),....I'm pretty sure we are properly conditioned to be let down...Sure..there will be some brief disappointment, but we know the drill

 

1/28/11 - 0.6"

2/9/11 - 0.1"

2/21-22/11 - 0.4"

3/27/11 - 0.2"

1/9/12 - 0.6"

1/20-21/12 - 1.1"

2/11-12/12 - 0.3"

12/26/12 - 0.2"

1/24/13 - 0.4"

1/25/13 - 0.4"

1/28/13 - 0.1"

2/1/13 - 0.2"

2/2/13 - 0.2"

3/6/13 - 0.2"

3/25/13 - 1.4"

12/8/13 - 0.6"

12/10/13 - 0.9"

MInd boggling that there are only 2 storms with a 1 in front of it.

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Here are the last 17 accumulating snow events for DCA (since 1/26/11),....I'm pretty sure we are properly conditioned to be let down...Sure..there will be some brief disappointment, but we know the drill

 

1/28/11 - 0.6"

2/9/11 - 0.1"

2/21-22/11 - 0.4"

3/27/11 - 0.2"

1/9/12 - 0.6"

1/20-21/12 - 1.1"

2/11-12/12 - 0.3"

12/26/12 - 0.2"

1/24/13 - 0.4"

1/25/13 - 0.4"

1/28/13 - 0.1"

2/1/13 - 0.2"

2/2/13 - 0.2"

3/6/13 - 0.2"

3/25/13 - 1.4"

12/8/13 - 0.6"

12/10/13 - 0.9"

 

and an avg of .46" :(

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Here are the last 17 accumulating snow events for DCA (since 1/26/11),....I'm pretty sure we are properly conditioned to be let down...Sure..there will be some brief disappointment, but we know the drill

 

1/28/11 - 0.6"

2/9/11 - 0.1"

2/21-22/11 - 0.4"

3/27/11 - 0.2"

1/9/12 - 0.6"

1/20-21/12 - 1.1"

2/11-12/12 - 0.3"

12/26/12 - 0.2"

1/24/13 - 0.4"

1/25/13 - 0.4"

1/28/13 - 0.1"

2/1/13 - 0.2"

2/2/13 - 0.2"

3/6/13 - 0.2"

3/25/13 - 1.4"

12/8/13 - 0.6"

12/10/13 - 0.9"

 

Interesting list, anyone have one for BWI?

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The freezing line currently runs roughly from NW baltimore burbs through IAD...DC proper is 34-35..who knows about DCA...they could be up to 37

That is about where I am sitting ~10 miles south of the District.

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