mitchnick Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 precip amounts seemed to tick up slightly and move back west a tad from 6z yep http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=027ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_027_precip_p24.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 precip amounts seemed to tick up slightly and move back west a tad from 6z It's the usual drill around here....high sensitivity to the development and track of the low pressure system(s)....it wouldn't take much in terms of changes for most of the area to be screw jobbed entirely, or to bump into higher QPF bands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Lol berk pulled out Jan 25 2000. Congrats RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 12z NAM changeover is about 8pm for DC. Looks like about an inch of snow. QPF still around 0.3". Sounds good... any snow on the ground for the epic cold is nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Perfect nutshell Nuts? Where? Good luck to you guys, hoping you do better than expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 An interesting time period with this storm happens in the 6z-12z window for the eastern areas. The mid-level features begin to reform over the ocean and positive frontogenesis develops ~ 9z. Now, the GFS has been suggesting this is generally east of the area and forms mainly near the DELMARVA coastal areas/out to sea. The new 12z NAM is further west with it. Notice at 9z there is 700mb omega over the Chesapeake. If this system can go negatively tilted faster with a more organized transfer, then a time may exist, albeit brief, of deep snow growth depths and positive frontogenesis in the snow growth zone (this would enhance rates and snow ratios). Notice the NAM has even an unstable layer 700-800mb in the SGZ within this omega field. Now I know that this threat is east of the general DC area, but I wanted to point it out since the NAM has shifted west with it. Should the GFS continue to shift west, perhaps east suburbs could get in on this tonight. We'll see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Thanks for stopping in HM. I hope Wes jackpots locally. NE MD will be the clear winner for the State unless the models bust pretty bad. Maybe the WSI RPM model is picking up on that? lol- just kiddin but I like looking at digital snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Temperatures seem cooler than modeled, at least by the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Too bad we're gonna warm today enough to kill our 2 inch chances at DCA. I think matt pretty much nailed it with his ideas based on the earlier runs. Towards Bowie, BWI. Annapolis the threat is greater for 2 inches....maybe 3 if nice banding sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Temperatures seem cooler than modeled, at least by the nam. I'm still at 31.5, was forecast to be 36/37 by now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Too bad we're gonna warm today enough to kill our 2 inch chances at DCA. I think matt pretty much nailed it with his ideas based on the earlier runs. Towards Bowie, BWI. Annapolis the threat is greater for 2 inches....maybe 3 if nice banding sets up. Does DC micro climo really make that much of a difference? I am from Western Baltimore County. We always do a little better... but I put Bowie and Annapolis in the same category as DCA... but given the recent history, maybe the DC metro is a special kind of bad when it comes to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Thanks for stopping in HM. I hope Wes jackpots locally. NE MD will be the clear winner for the State unless the models bust pretty bad. Maybe the WSI RPM model is picking up on that? lol- just kiddin but I like looking at digital snow. Hey, no problem. It's been clear, and you guys have been great in this thread about further NE being in a better position. These situations do come down to miles, so any earlier negative tilting and/or reforming of mid-level circulations can mean a big difference for people on the edge. Of course, it can go the other way too, with a later tilting / transfer, leading to an adjustment east. We've all been burned before. The time I'm highlighting is toward the end of the storm, after midnight. I don't see anything too major in terms of frontgen banding; but, with how cold the profiles get and how deep the snow growth zone gets, any omega could be prolific for a while then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Thanks for stopping in HM. I hope Wes jackpots locally. NE MD will be the clear winner for the State unless the models bust pretty bad. Maybe the WSI RPM model is picking up on that? lol- just kiddin but I like looking at digital snow. wsirpm.JPG The only time I've paid attention to the RPM was on the early March storm, and that was because the weather channel kept showing it. It nailed that event at about this time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Too bad we're gonna warm today enough to kill our 2 inch chances at DCA. I think matt pretty much nailed it with his ideas based on the earlier runs. Towards Bowie, BWI. Annapolis the threat is greater for 2 inches....maybe 3 if nice banding sets up. That's what I'm hoping for Wes here in Crofton. My gut says 1-1.5" though, but we'll see.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 That's what I'm hoping for Wes here in Crofton. My gut says 1-1.5" though, but we'll see.. Brian, I think your gut is probably pretty good. I'd settle for 1" at my house, hope for 2 but think less than 1 might be more likely. I'll be east but also will start out warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Does DC micro climo really make that much of a difference? I am from Western Baltimore County. We always do a little better... but I put Bowie and Annapolis in the same category as DCA... but given the recent history, maybe the DC metro is a special kind of bad when it comes to snow. Yes, UHI effects + low elevation hurts pretty bad. Especialy @ DCA on the river. I'm only maybe 15 miles staight line to the river and it is different here. Folks like Das 15 miles to my NW makes another big + jump. It's evident every year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Too bad we're gonna warm today enough to kill our 2 inch chances at DCA. I think matt pretty much nailed it with his ideas based on the earlier runs. Towards Bowie, BWI. Annapolis the threat is greater for 2 inches....maybe 3 if nice banding sets up. Wes, here is the latest model output for DCA...notice the mornings models so far are a bit wetter 6z GFS - 0.31" 12z NAM - 0.32" But snow falling with temp below 33 is about 0.10" on NAM and 0.06" on GFS...I guess for me and you it is a matter of how accurate the models are with temp profiles....also whether we have dendrites/+SN and can stick at 34...being dark helps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigjohndc Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I live in Cheverly, MD, on US 50 right outside of the DC line, on top of a hill overlooking the city. It is remarkable how our ground can be covered and once you go west on 50 past 295 the ground goes green. In December we had close to 2 inches while 5 miles to our west in town they had slush. It just seems to be a degree or two cooler, and in the marginal storms we have gotten recently that is all it takes. I would take 1.5 inches and fingers crossed for 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I live in Cheverly, MD, on US 50 right outside of the DC line, on top of a hill overlooking the city. It is remarkable how our ground can be covered and once you go west on 50 past 295 the ground goes green. In December we had close to 2 inches while 5 miles to our west in town they had slush. It just seems to be a degree or two cooler, and in the marginal storms we have gotten recently that is all it takes. I would take 1.5 inches and fingers crossed for 2. I think we need a band after 10-11pm or so...If we can get into moderate snow for 2-3 hours, with fluffy powder we could see almost 2"...I think once we are plummeting, 0.10" of QPF will give us more than 1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 GFS and NAM both have DCA at 17 Degrees at 4am...any squallly type banding after 1am will powder up pretty good...def better than 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Temperatures seem cooler than modeled, at least by the nam. I am 31.9 right now so it is looking pretty decent temp wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 The HRRR seems to have a good handle on things as of 15Z compared to radar. Overall, the now-casting radar precip coverage looks good, but the model's reflectivity seems to have a bit more precip in Gulf just south of the Florida panhandle, imo. Ncep radar: http://www.weather.gov/Radar, 15Z HRRR: http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/displayMapLocalDiskDateDomainZip.cgi?keys=hrrr_jet:&runtime=2014010212&plot_type=1ref_sfc&fcst=03&time_inc=60&num_times=16&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=15&fcstStrLen=-1&domain=full&adtfn=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 GFS and NAM both have DCA at 17 Degrees at 4am...any squallly type banding after 1am will powder up pretty good...def better than 10:1 RAP (grain of salt) has us in accumulating snow until at least 4am with some backbuilding and rotation...I could see both scenarios...dryslot or overperformer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 RAP (grain of salt) has us in accumulating snow until at least 4am with some backbuilding and rotation...I could see both scenarios...dryslot or overperformer Total nailbiter 95 and west until you get north a good 15-20 miles or so. I never like cold chasing precip. In this case I may be far enough east. And I agree, and decent rates on the tail will whiten things with the quickness. It's a very good nowcasting storm for our area. Models have been steady last couple runs but with so many factors that can effect accums and who gets it makes it fun in some ways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Yes, UHI effects + low elevation hurts pretty bad. Especialy @ DCA on the river. I'm only maybe 15 miles staight line to the river and it is different here. Folks like Das 15 miles to my NW makes another big + jump. It's evident every year. Thanks Bob... I think something should be said for the 3 year drought and the pattern. For the past few years, when there has been no blocking and bad low tracks, other areas (including Baltimore) have gotten lucky here and there... and Baltimore has the Patapsco and the Urban heat. It almost seems like DC can't snow without the perfect set up and the right pattern... something can be gained/ learned by taking a hard look at the data from the last three years. I would do it.. but dont have experience or ability. I truly feel horrible those guys in the City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Hey, no problem. It's been clear, and you guys have been great in this thread about further NE being in a better position. These situations do come down to miles, so any earlier negative tilting and/or reforming of mid-level circulations can mean a big difference for people on the edge. Of course, it can go the other way too, with a later tilting / transfer, leading to an adjustment east. We've all been burned before. The time I'm highlighting is toward the end of the storm, after midnight. I don't see anything too major in terms of frontgen banding; but, with how cold the profiles get and how deep the snow growth zone gets, any omega could be prolific for a while then. There are signs of this back to even west of DC...latest GFS kind of matches the idea of the latest rap and is showing much more of a pivot and backbuild..than the models were showing yesterday 12zGFS now has DC in snow until around 3am, with probably around 0.35" QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Thanks Bob... I think something should be said for the 3 year drought and the pattern. For the past few years, when there has been no blocking and bad low tracks, other areas (including Baltimore) have gotten lucky here and there... and Baltimore has the Patapsco and the Urban heat. It almost seems like DC can't snow without the perfect set up and the right pattern... something can be gained/ learned by taking a hard look at the data from the last three years. I would do it.. but dont have experience or ability. I truly feel horrible those guys in the City. We've just been loaded to the gills with marginal events. DCA rarely wins those if ever. Even though some folks n-w got decent snows at times the events we're pretty marginal overall and jackpots very small geographically. We'll get widespread events again. It's only a matter of time. Bad luck always runs out. When that happens is anyone's guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Total nailbiter 95 and west until you get north a good 15-20 miles or so. I never like cold chasing precip. In this case I may be far enough east. And I agree, and decent rates on the tail will whiten things with the quickness. It's a very good nowcasting storm for our area. Models have been steady last couple runs but with so many factors that can effect accums and who gets it makes it fun in some ways. 12z GFS is easily its wettest run yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 There are signs of this back to even west of DC...latest GFS kind of matches the idea of the latest rap and is showing much more of a pivot and backbuild..than the models were showing yesterday 12zGFS now has DC in snow until around 3am, with probably around 0.35" QPF Yes it does. And the trend towards better stuff shifting west is consistent. Still a minor event but will have impacts if we get the snow because it's going to get darn cold. Cold enough for it to be tough to treat roads with chemicals in some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 12z GFS is easily its wettest run yet No doubt. And I'm totally cool with that. lol. Just one band with temps in the 20's please. Just one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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