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January 2/3 Event - Disco., Nowcasting, and Obs.


wxmeddler

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so for DC, we have all 4 0z models (Canadian, GFS, NAM, Euro) all around 0.25" QPF....GFS is the coldest of the 4, and still only gives DCA around ~1.5"..

 

I think a good forecast for DC is around 1".....I think the only way we do more than 1.5" or so is if the models are wrong with temps profiles/qpf and/or ratios are super duper high with the fluff at the end....

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so for DC, we have all 4 0z models (Canadian, GFS, NAM, Euro) all around 0.25" QPF....GFS is the coldest of the 4, and still only gives DCA around ~1.5"..

I think a good forecast for DC is around 1".....I think the only way we do more than 1.5" or so is if the models are wrong with temps profiles/qpf and/or ratios are super duper high with the fluff at the end....

Perfect nutshell

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Winter Weather Advisory

Alert:

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO

3 AM EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS

ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW... WHICH IS IN EFFECT

FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EST FRIDAY.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW

* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BE HEAVIEST THIS EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF

LATE TONIGHT.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S.

* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM SNOW

THIS EVENING.

Instructions: A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

Target Area:

Carroll

Frederick

Harford

Howard

Northern Baltimore

Southern Baltimore

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Morning peeps. From Justin Berk last night. Weenie hallucinations...

For the Night Owls...

The northern and southern branch jets just met in Arkansas.

Notice the pivot and southern moisture appears to be pulled farther north.

Other notes for the weather geeks:

A baroclinic leaf is evident developing and pushing north through MD. This reminds me of the Jan 25, 2000 set up models pushed too out to sea.

I see High Pressure trying to ridge down trough Maine and Nova Scotia, which will try to keep the new coastal from moving out to far east.

I know I am going against the grain of American Models and NWS, but I can't ignore what I see here.

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Cobb output for Westminster

 

06z GFS: .257 qpf, rain/snow starting around 21z, snow lasts until 12z 

06z NAM: .252 qpf, rain/snow starting around 12z, snow lasts until 10z

 

good agreement -- I see no reason why Westminster can't pick up at least 2" from this, more as you go east.

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