January 2/3 Event - Disco., Nowcasting, and Obs.

[MDstorm]

Euro is still overall the most accurate for precip amounts.  Of course, it seems that in most storms around here we are looking at a NAM output of  1 inch liquid while the Euro is showing 0.2 (we all know how that usually turns out).  In this case, the Euro is wetter than other models.  I would look for Euro to hold and other models to trend wetter over the next 12 hours.

 

 

MDstorm

[Ian]

The GFS is hardly a barn-burner for them. Great storm, but nothing outrageous or historic.

I think the solutions that are better for us are not as good for them.  They were getting the biggest total snow with the lead wave being strongish then the trailing taking over and blowing up more east.  Now they are both kinda south and not as impressive up there.  I still can't completely understand why boston public schools announced closure for Friday today but eh.. wx models are the ****.

[Bob Chill]

No matter what happens this event sucks....I'm not lowering my standards and pretend to be happy with 2 inches like bob chill

A 1-2 is not a snow event

 

It might be a nino next year. We can both be happy. 

[Scraff]

DCA is the wiff artist of the northeast.

Southwest of the Potomac may very well end up with nothing. Baltimore gets 2" on just about every model now. Northeast of 270 should get at least 1"

What's sad is that DCA was not always this way. Well no matter--I want to see that streak broken!

[mitchnick]

No matter what happens this event sucks....I'm not lowering my standards and pretend to be happy with 2 inches like bob chill

A 1-2 is not a snow event

I always knew you were better than the rest of us  

[ravensrule]

Just saw that. Where is Tommy T when you need him?!

He is the best in our area and i think he would have gone 2-4".

[HighStakes]

Just saw that. Where is Tommy T when you need him?!

Tom has been the chief meteorologists there for over 20 years. I guess he gets a lot of days off when he wants them.

[Ian]

Euro is still overall the most accurate for precip amounts.  Of course, it seems that in most storms around here we are looking at a NAM output of  1 inch liquid while the Euro is showing 0.2 (we all know how that usually turns out).  In this case, the Euro is wetter than other models.  I would look for Euro to hold and other models to trend wetter over the next 12 hours.

 

 

MDstorm

Until 0z comes in looking similar the Euro is still an outlier to itself. 

[snow.]

I could see DCA having their 3rd best event this winter

[Scraff]

He is the best in our area and i think he would have gone 2-4".

Tommy is the best--agree no doubt. I think those totals are legit though. I'm out for the night. Work tomorrow going to be rough while following my favorite weenie crowd in here. Look forward to my morning reading from the Euro crew.

[mitchnick]

3Z RAP seems consistent with the short range models wrt to start time, temp and precip shield

[clskinsfan]

That Aps runner on Sunday night needs to be watched as well. Legit chance for some back end snows with it.

[winterymix]

LWX gives DCA 0.8 and Elkton about 3.8

[snow.]

DCA since 1/26/2011- we have had 17 different accumulating snow events...15 less than 1", and the biggest 1.4"....Someone tell me why this will be different??...looks like it will go right into the mix of crap...

 

 

1/28/11 - 0.6"

2/9/11 - 0.1"

2/21-22/11 - 0.4"

3/27/11 - 0.2"

1/9/12 - 0.6"

1/20-21/12 - 1.1"

2/11-12/12 - 0.3"

12/26/12 - 0.2"

1/24/13 - 0.4"

1/25/13 - 0.4"

1/28/13 - 0.1"

2/1/13 - 0.2"

2/2/13 - 0.2"

3/6/13 - 0.2"

3/25/13 - 1.4"

12/8/13 - 0.6"

12/10/13 - 0.9"

[snow.]

DCA since 1/26/2011- we have had 17 different accumulating snow events...15 less than 1", and the biggest 1.4"....Someone tell me why this will be different??...looks like it will go right into the mix of crap...

 

 

1/28/11 - 0.6"

2/9/11 - 0.1"

2/21-22/11 - 0.4"

3/27/11 - 0.2"

1/9/12 - 0.6"

1/20-21/12 - 1.1"

2/11-12/12 - 0.3"

12/26/12 - 0.2"

1/24/13 - 0.4"

1/25/13 - 0.4"

1/28/13 - 0.1"

2/1/13 - 0.2"

2/2/13 - 0.2"

3/6/13 - 0.2"

3/25/13 - 1.4"

12/8/13 - 0.6"

12/10/13 - 0.9"

 

Looks like we are missing a 0.7" so I'll go with that

[mitchnick]

DCA since 1/26/2011- we have had 17 different accumulating snow events...15 less than 1", and the biggest 1.4"....Someone tell me why this will be different??...looks like it will go right into the mix of crap...

 

 

12/28/11 - 0.6"

2/9/11 - 0.1"

2/21-22/11 - 0.4"

3/27/11 - 0.2"

1/9/12 - 0.6"

1/20-21/12 - 1.1"

2/11-12/12 - 0.3"

12/26/12 - 0.2"

1/24/13 - 0.4"

1/25/13 - 0.4"

1/28/13 - 0.1"

2/1/13 - 0.2"

2/2/13 - 0.2"

3/6/13 - 0.2"

3/25/13 - 1.4"

12/8/13 - 0.6"

12/10/13 - 0.9"

the fact that you have kept records for those kind of events is even more stunning...I'd a deleted the file a year ago and kicked the monitor into oblivion

[nw baltimore wx]

DCA since 1/26/2011- we have had 17 different accumulating snow events...15 less than 1", and the biggest 1.4"....Someone tell me why this will be different??...looks like it will go right into the mix of crap...

 

 

12/28/11 - 0.6"

2/9/11 - 0.1"

2/21-22/11 - 0.4"

3/27/11 - 0.2"

1/9/12 - 0.6"

1/20-21/12 - 1.1"

2/11-12/12 - 0.3"

12/26/12 - 0.2"

1/24/13 - 0.4"

1/25/13 - 0.4"

1/28/13 - 0.1"

2/1/13 - 0.2"

2/2/13 - 0.2"

3/6/13 - 0.2"

3/25/13 - 1.4"

12/8/13 - 0.6"

12/10/13 - 0.9

 

Just an opinion, and it may not be any different, but looking at that list, if DCA can squeeze out more than an inch in what ends as a decently cold storm, I can see it having more of an impact than any other "storm" on that list.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Bit OT here, but we've been watching a storm that's taking shape tonight for almost a week. The models saw it then. To think that some wiring, electricity and plastic can do that is pretty amazing. We bash models but they are a remarkable invention.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Just an opinion, and it may not be any different, but looking at that list, if DCA can squeeze out more than an inch in what ends as a decently cold storm, I can see it having more of an impact than any other "storm" on that list.

I know you're right, but I don't see how 1" of snow can impact anything.

[nw baltimore wx]

I know you're right, but I don't see how 1" of snow can impact anything.

 

You've never lived near DC?

[Sparky]

DCA since 1/26/2011- we have had 17 different accumulating snow events...15 less than 1", and the biggest 1.4"....Someone tell me why this will be different??...looks like it will go right into the mix of crap...

 

 

1/28/11 - 0.6"

2/9/11 - 0.1"

2/21-22/11 - 0.4"

3/27/11 - 0.2"

1/9/12 - 0.6"

1/20-21/12 - 1.1"

2/11-12/12 - 0.3"

12/26/12 - 0.2"

1/24/13 - 0.4"

1/25/13 - 0.4"

1/28/13 - 0.1"

2/1/13 - 0.2"

2/2/13 - 0.2"

3/6/13 - 0.2"

3/25/13 - 1.4"

12/8/13 - 0.6"

12/10/13 - 0.9"

that is SO pathetic.

[snow.]

that is SO pathetic.

 

yep...at least we can take solace in the fact that Carroll county got 5-10" in all of those events

[aldie 22]

DCA since 1/26/2011- we have had 17 different accumulating snow events...15 less than 1", and the biggest 1.4"....Someone tell me why this will be different??...looks like it will go right into the mix of crap...

 

 

1/28/11 - 0.6"

2/9/11 - 0.1"

2/21-22/11 - 0.4"

3/27/11 - 0.2"

1/9/12 - 0.6"

1/20-21/12 - 1.1"

2/11-12/12 - 0.3"

12/26/12 - 0.2"

1/24/13 - 0.4"

1/25/13 - 0.4"

1/28/13 - 0.1"

2/1/13 - 0.2"

2/2/13 - 0.2"

3/6/13 - 0.2"

3/25/13 - 1.4"

12/8/13 - 0.6"

12/10/13 - 0.9"

That is rough...is there much difference at your house?

[snow.]

CWG just gave tomorrow night a 1 out of 10....

[Interstate]

I guess in about 50 minutes we can lock this thread or at least change the title...lol

[AvantHiatus]

I guess in about 50 minutes we can lock this thread or at least change the title...lol

-_-

 

If it breaks 2" in DC, it's worth tracking.

[Bob Chill]

Canadian models like us. Gem .3-4 dc-bwi

[snow.]

That is rough...is there much difference at your house?

 

not much....over the below span, DCA has gotten 7.9" and I have gotten 10", so 127%.....which is exactly what I averaged over the  8 winters from 2004-05 to 2011-12 when I lived in Mt Pleasant, NW DC at 210'... I averaged 18.4" and DCA 14.5".....so exactly 127% of DCA's total...now that I am downtown it might go down a bit, but I am not sure i will be here long enough to get a good sample....I am guessing 115% of DCA's total over time...so yeah...we here in DC suck almost as bad as DCA

o - Old Town

MP - Mt Pleasant

DT - Downtown

 

1/28/11 - 0.6", 0.5" (MP)

2/9/11 - 0.1", 0 (MP)

2/21-22/11 - 0.4", 0.75"(MP)

3/27/11 - 0.2", 0.25"(MP)

1/9/12 - 0.6", 0.25"(MP)

1/20-21/12 - 1.1", 1.25"(MP)

2/11-12/12 - 0.3", 0.5"(MP)

12/26/12 - 0.2", 0.25" (o)

1/24/13 - 0.4", 1.0"(o)

1/25/13 - 0.4", 0.5"(o)

1/28/13 - 0.1", 0(o)

2/1/13 - 0.2", 0.5"(o)

2/2/13 - 0.2", 0.25"(o)

3/6/13 - 0.2", 0.25"(o)

3/25/13 - 1.4", 2.25" (o)

12/8/13 - 0.6", 1.0" (DT)

12/10/13 - 0.9", 0.5" (DT)

[snow.]

Canadian models like us. Gem .3-4 dc-bwi

 

Canadian is super warm though

[Bob Chill]

Canadian is super warm though

Just tracking qpf trends. I think we know how temps are gonna go. Well lose some upfront. Notsomuch 30 miles north. As temps crash rates pick up and it gone not to long after. It will be a stubborn shutoff ne and cecil co posters will be posting rakage as we are on the outside looking in. If qpf drops to .2 or less tomorrow you and me are in some trouble squeezing a powdery inch.