usedtobe Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 yeah it's just probably a pretty short window with any rates. not much change.. d-2" locally depending on how lucky you are etc. Makes me happy to see it wetter. A pretty good run by our sorry standards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I'm gonna say with the slightly wetter trends, the euro holds or increases. My biggest fear all along has been a complete bust. I'm very thankful at the latest runs keeping the rug underfoot. Ian thinks I'm going all mt tolland weenie and stuff. I'll still root for him though. Even though he's a Deb deep down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 i only have to the tenth on the euro.. .4" at DCA per that. there was a little more liquid after my comment on the gfs. but it seems to be nearer the consensus now outside the euro. yeah..I think we now have NAM at 0.22, GFS at 0.24....euro should fall into the 0.25 - 0.3 range... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Meanwhile Boston sneezes and gets 9 feet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 i only have to the tenth on the euro.. .4" at DCA per that. there was a little more liquid after my comment on the gfs. but it seems to be nearer the consensus now outside the euro. .39" at DCA per Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Are we confident with the trends today that total whiff is off the drawing board? Looks like a little sumpin sumpin for almost everyone right? The Justin Berk storm?? ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 My biggest fear all along has been a complete bust. I'm very thankful at the latest runs keeping the rug underfoot. Ian thinks I'm going all mt tolland weenie and stuff. I'll still root for him though. Even though he's a Deb deep down.I commented a bit quick was more than I saw. I'm just not sure it's a move to the euro or a meshing of everything I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Are we confident with the trends today that total whiff is off the drawing board? Looks like a little sumpin sumpin for almost everyone right? The Justin Berk storm?? ;-) no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 The entire evolution is an improvement over the 18z run. The Northern vort is further north and the coastal pops closer to the coast. Its a good run for DCA. The streak is in real jeopardy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I commented a bit quick was more than I saw. I'm just not sure it's a move to the euro or a meshing of everything I suppose. looks like NAM gives us around 0.1" when temp is <32.....the other 60% falls with temps above freezing...so unless we can get some accumulation at 33-34, we are looking a 1" from that model I think GFS gives us closer to 1.5 - 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 All models seem to have a precip hole over the Shenandoah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I commented a bit quick was more than I saw. I'm just not sure it's a move to the euro or a meshing of everything I suppose. No worries. My skin is titanium after the last 3 years. On a side note....rgem is a .5-.6 dca streakbreaker. Apparently it's the shizzle so I'm riding that anyways. RGEM has a precip bullseye down in Ric of .5+ as well. It's something to watch. If it's raining hard in ric before our snow starts then it's a lock . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 The entire evolution is an improvement over the 18z run. The Northern vort is further north and the coastal pops closer to the coast. Its a good run for DCA. The streak is in real jeopardy. eh...I'll take the under....looks to me like your standard DCA 0.8"...maybe 1.3" if we get lucky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 .5 to 2 seems likely area wide... maybe 3-4 N and E of BWI at this point. Could get some fun rates as the low intensifies off the coast.. doubtful to break the streak... don't even care about the Euro... its all radar at this point. might start as a little slushy mix early (3 PM start time DCA, 5 PM BWI), but I doubt we get any plain rain out of this. radar this evening looks on track with model consensus. Only area that could be at risk for total whiff is CVille to JYO IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 All models seem to have a precip hole over the Shenandoah. that could shift east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 eh...I'll take the under....looks to me like your standard DCA 0.8"...maybe 1.3" if we get lucky Don't you need to get like at least 3.5" for DCA to measure 2"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 eh...I'll take the under....looks to me like your standard DCA 0.8"...maybe 1.3" if we get lucky Only way the streak is in jeopardy is if the euro bumps up and all guidance follows. You might get 2+ with very cold winds on the heels. A good event within a streak of humiliation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 McGrady on Fox DC just went 1-3 DC metro, 3-6 Balt. metro. One can only hope... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 All models seem to have a precip hole over the Shenandoah. You're in the same hole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pythium Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Colora cecil county 6.2 going on record Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Meanwhile Boston sneezes and gets 9 feet I'd be a little nervous up there still. I mean they'll do OK one way or another but the bigger bands could very well end up just south of most of the area.. perhaps LI or the islands/cape will jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Only way the streak is in jeopardy is if the euro bumps up and all guidance follows. You might get 2+ with very cold winds on the heels. A good event within a streak of humiliation. we could get 15:1 with that last 0.1" QPF... it's gonna be cold and fluffy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 we could get 15:1 with that last 0.1" QPF... it's gonna be cold and fluffy If it's windy there's no way DCA is going to give us a good measurement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 we could get 15:1 with that last 0.1" QPF... it's gonna be cold and fluffy And I will be awake and walking my dog laughing insanely with no desire to kick cats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I'd be a little nervous up there still. I mean they'll do OK one way or another but the bigger bands could very well end up just south of most of the area.. perhaps LI or the islands/cape will jackpot. The GFS is hardly a barn-burner for them. Great storm, but nothing outrageous or historic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 McGrady on Fox DC just went 1-3 DC metro, 3-6 Balt. metro. One can only hope... Tony Pann on Channel 11 in Baltimore is only going 1-3" for the metro area. He is always very conservative though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 .5 to 2 seems likely area wide... maybe 3-4 N and E of BWI at this point. Could get some fun rates as the low intensifies off the coast.. doubtful to break the streak... don't even care about the Euro... its all radar at this point. might start as a little slushy mix early (3 PM start time DCA, 5 PM BWI), but I doubt we get any plain rain out of this. radar this evening looks on track with model consensus. Only area that could be at risk for total whiff is CVille to JYO IMO I'm not overly concerned...the precip hole has been fairly consistent here...nam says .20 at jyo...should be a tad colder... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Are we confident with the trends today that total whiff is off the drawing board? Looks like a little sumpin sumpin for almost everyone right? The Justin Berk storm?? ;-) DCA is the wiff artist of the northeast. Southwest of the Potomac may very well end up with nothing. Baltimore gets 2" on just about every model now. Northeast of 270 should get at least 1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 No matter what happens this event sucks....I'm not lowering my standards and pretend to be happy with 2 inches like bob chill A 1-2 is not a snow event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Tony Pann on Channel 11 in Baltimore is only going 1-3" for the metro area. He is always very conservative though. Just saw that. Where is Tommy T when you need him?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.