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January 2/3 Event - Disco., Nowcasting, and Obs.


wxmeddler

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I'm gonna say with the slightly wetter trends, the euro holds or increases.

 

My biggest fear all along has been a complete bust. I'm very thankful at the latest runs keeping the rug underfoot. Ian thinks I'm going all mt tolland weenie and stuff. I'll still root for him though. Even though he's a Deb deep down. 

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i only have to the tenth on the euro.. .4" at DCA per that. there was a little more liquid after my comment on the gfs.  but it seems to be nearer the consensus now outside the euro. 

 

yeah..I think we now have NAM at 0.22, GFS at 0.24....euro should fall into the 0.25 - 0.3 range...

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My biggest fear all along has been a complete bust. I'm very thankful at the latest runs keeping the rug underfoot. Ian thinks I'm going all mt tolland weenie and stuff. I'll still root for him though. Even though he's a Deb deep down.

I commented a bit quick was more than I saw. I'm just not sure it's a move to the euro or a meshing of everything I suppose.
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I commented a bit quick was more than I saw. I'm just not sure it's a move to the euro or a meshing of everything I suppose.

 

looks like NAM gives us around 0.1" when temp is <32.....the other 60% falls with temps above freezing...so unless we can get some accumulation at 33-34, we are looking a 1" from that model

 

I think GFS gives us closer to 1.5 - 2"

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I commented a bit quick was more than I saw. I'm just not sure it's a move to the euro or a meshing of everything I suppose.

 

No worries. My skin is titanium after the last 3 years. On a side note....rgem is a .5-.6 dca streakbreaker. Apparently it's the shizzle so I'm riding that anyways.

 

RGEM has a precip bullseye down in Ric of .5+ as well. It's something to watch. If it's raining hard in ric before our snow starts then it's a lock .

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The entire evolution is an improvement over the 18z run. The Northern vort is further north and the coastal pops closer to the coast. Its a good run for DCA. The streak is in real jeopardy.

 

eh...I'll take the under....looks to me like your standard DCA 0.8"...maybe 1.3" if we get lucky

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.5 to 2 seems likely area wide... maybe 3-4 N and E of BWI at this point. Could get some fun rates as the low intensifies off the coast.. doubtful to break the streak... don't even care about the Euro... its all radar at this point.

 

might start as a little slushy mix early (3 PM start time DCA, 5 PM BWI), but I doubt we get any plain rain out of this.

radar this evening looks on track with model consensus.

 

Only area that could be at risk for total whiff is CVille to JYO IMO

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eh...I'll take the under....looks to me like your standard DCA 0.8"...maybe 1.3" if we get lucky

 

Only way the streak is in jeopardy is if the euro bumps up and all guidance follows. You might get 2+ with very cold winds on the heels. A good event within a streak of humiliation. 

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Meanwhile Boston sneezes and gets 9 feet

I'd be a little nervous up there still. I mean they'll do OK one way or another but the bigger bands could very well end up just south of most of the area.. perhaps LI or the islands/cape will jackpot.

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Only way the streak is in jeopardy is if the euro bumps up and all guidance follows. You might get 2+ with very cold winds on the heels. A good event within a streak of humiliation. 

 

we could get 15:1 with that last 0.1" QPF... it's gonna be cold and fluffy

 

:weenie:

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.5 to 2 seems likely area wide... maybe 3-4 N and E of BWI at this point. Could get some fun rates as the low intensifies off the coast.. doubtful to break the streak... don't even care about the Euro... its all radar at this point.

 

might start as a little slushy mix early (3 PM start time DCA, 5 PM BWI), but I doubt we get any plain rain out of this.

radar this evening looks on track with model consensus.

 

Only area that could be at risk for total whiff is CVille to JYO IMO

I'm not overly concerned...the precip hole has been fairly consistent here...nam says .20 at jyo...should be a tad colder...

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Are we confident with the trends today that total whiff is off the drawing board? Looks like a little sumpin sumpin for almost everyone right? The Justin Berk storm?? ;-)

DCA is the wiff artist of the northeast.

 

Southwest of the Potomac may very well end up with nothing.  Baltimore gets 2" on just about every model now. Northeast of 270 should get at least 1"

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