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January 2/3 Event - Disco., Nowcasting, and Obs.


wxmeddler

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Just checked the guidance and it seems like many are more focused on the QPF total and not so much on the warm temps and how much QPF will be wasted at the start.  I live near DC and am expecting a light slushy coating of the taller blades of grass. The 2" streak will not be broken, I'm nearly 100% certain of that.

Temps on the NAM might be an issue DC and south. I doubt anyone north of there has major issues unless the precip is spotty and light for a long time. Temps crash quick and the NAM is warmer than the Euro.

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Just checked the guidance and it seems like many are more focused on the QPF total and not so much on the warm temps and how much QPF will be wasted at the start.  I live near DC and am expecting a light slushy coating of the taller blades of grass. The 2" streak will not be broken, I'm nearly 100% certain of that.

 

I would be more worried about the flash freezing of any of the QPF that falls as rain.

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0Z NAM for 

 

DCA: IAD is just about identical:

 

140102/2200Z 22 07006KT 39.8F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.017 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02 0| 0|100
140102/2300Z 23 07006KT 39.1F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.024 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04 0| 0|100
140103/0000Z 24 08006KT 38.7F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.033 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.07 0| 0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140103/0100Z 25 07006KT 37.8F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.054 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.13 0| 0|100
140103/0200Z 26 06006KT 36.6F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.046 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.17 0| 0|100
140103/0300Z 27 03006KT 35.3F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.019 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.19 21| 1| 77
140103/0400Z 28 36008KT 34.4F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.014 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.21 56| 0| 44
140103/0500Z 29 35011KT 33.0F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.018 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.22 85| 0| 15
140103/0600Z 30 34015KT 30.5F SNOW 9:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.014 9:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.24 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140103/0700Z 31 34018KT 26.1F SNOW 16:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009 12:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.25 100| 0| 0
140103/0800Z 32 33019KT 21.5F SNOW 20:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004 13:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.25 100| 0| 0

 

BWI:

 

140102/2200Z 22 07008KT 39.5F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.022 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02 0| 0|100
140102/2300Z 23 07010KT 37.7F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.043 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.06 0| 0|100
140103/0000Z 24 07008KT 35.9F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.032 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.10 33| 0| 67
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140103/0100Z 25 06006KT 33.7F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.046 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.14 75| 0| 25
140103/0200Z 26 06006KT 33.3F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.038 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.18 73| 0| 27
140103/0300Z 27 03007KT 33.0F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.033 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.21 83| 0| 17
140103/0400Z 28 01009KT 32.3F SNOW 10:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.026 10:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.24 100| 0| 0
140103/0500Z 29 36011KT 30.6F SNOW 9:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.029 10:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.27 100| 0| 0
140103/0600Z 30 35014KT 28.1F SNOW 10:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.019 10:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.29 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140103/0700Z 31 34016KT 24.9F SNOW 16:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013 11:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.30 100| 0| 0
140103/0800Z 32 33017KT 21.1F SNOW 20:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007 11:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.31 100| 0| 0
140103/0900Z 33 33017KT 17.7F SNOW 23:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006 12:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.31 100| 0| 0

 

MRB:

 

140102/2000Z 20 06007KT 34.2F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 65| 0| 35
140102/2100Z 21 08006KT 32.3F SNOW 17:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.066 17:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.07 100| 0| 0
140102/2200Z 22 08006KT 32.1F SNOW 13:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.044 15:1| 1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.11 100| 0| 0
140102/2300Z 23 08005KT 31.9F SNOW 14:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004 15:1| 1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.12 100| 0| 0
140103/0000Z 24 06003KT 31.9F SNOW 11:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.015 15:1| 1.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.13 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140103/0100Z 25 02005KT 31.4F SNOW 12:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.023 14:1| 2.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.16 100| 0| 0
140103/0200Z 26 01007KT 30.6F SNOW 7:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028 13:1| 2.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.18 100| 0| 0
140103/0300Z 27 36012KT 28.8F SNOW 6:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.030 12:1| 2.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.21 100| 0| 0
140103/0400Z 28 36015KT 26.3F SNOW 9:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.016 12:1| 2.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.23 100| 0| 0
140103/0500Z 29 35017KT 21.6F SNOW 18:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006 12:1| 2.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.24 100| 0| 0
140103/0600Z 30 34017KT 17.1F SNOW 22:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004 12:1| 2.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.24 100| 0| 0

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I think reasonable people here have expectation in check, especially in relation to what our luck has been.   I was talking to Matt earlier and was sorta half serious when I told him I expect 3 hours of light snow and that's about it.   I honestly wouldn't be shocked with that outcome and a dusting.

 

You know it's bad when the best model is showing the best solution and nobody is really excited.   DC livin'

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It's a good run man. Closer to the euro. You can see it coming at h5. Precip is better organized. NE md jackpot. Shocker. 

true colors. not even.. ;) it's like half the euro around here.

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i wonder how much snow we get after the temps super crash....they should drop pretty fast

 

yeah it's just probably a pretty short window with any rates. not much change.. d-2" locally depending on how lucky you are etc.

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what was euro QPF"?  0.38?...GFS is around 0.27?....so less but not insanely so

i only have to the tenth on the euro.. .4" at DCA per that. there was a little more liquid after my comment on the gfs.  but it seems to be nearer the consensus now outside the euro. 

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FRI 00Z 03-JAN    1.9    -3.3     1005    94    97     0.05     544 540

FRI 06Z 03-JAN   -2.9    -5.8     1004    92   100    0.17     530 527

FRI 12Z 03-JAN   -11.6  -14.2   1016    79    80     0.02     526 513 

 

This should break the streak, no?

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