PhineasC Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Just checked the guidance and it seems like many are more focused on the QPF total and not so much on the warm temps and how much QPF will be wasted at the start. I live near DC and am expecting a light slushy coating of the taller blades of grass. The 2" streak will not be broken, I'm nearly 100% certain of that. Temps on the NAM might be an issue DC and south. I doubt anyone north of there has major issues unless the precip is spotty and light for a long time. Temps crash quick and the NAM is warmer than the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Just checked the guidance and it seems like many are more focused on the QPF total and not so much on the warm temps and how much QPF will be wasted at the start. I live near DC and am expecting a light slushy coating of the taller blades of grass. The 2" streak will not be broken, I'm nearly 100% certain of that. I would be more worried about the flash freezing of any of the QPF that falls as rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 there was some error in that wxbell map. i let ryan maue know he fixed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I guess you don't count the SREF and RGEM/GGEM? Both seem inline with the Euro on precip. correct...so I should have just said...I hope the GFS bumps up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 there was some error in that wxbell map. i let ryan maue know he fixed it. Got an updated one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 0Z NAM for DCA: IAD is just about identical: 140102/2200Z 22 07006KT 39.8F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.017 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02 0| 0|100140102/2300Z 23 07006KT 39.1F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.024 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04 0| 0|100140103/0000Z 24 08006KT 38.7F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.033 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.07 0| 0|100----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---140103/0100Z 25 07006KT 37.8F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.054 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.13 0| 0|100140103/0200Z 26 06006KT 36.6F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.046 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.17 0| 0|100140103/0300Z 27 03006KT 35.3F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.019 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.19 21| 1| 77140103/0400Z 28 36008KT 34.4F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.014 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.21 56| 0| 44140103/0500Z 29 35011KT 33.0F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.018 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.22 85| 0| 15140103/0600Z 30 34015KT 30.5F SNOW 9:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.014 9:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.24 100| 0| 0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---140103/0700Z 31 34018KT 26.1F SNOW 16:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009 12:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.25 100| 0| 0140103/0800Z 32 33019KT 21.5F SNOW 20:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004 13:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.25 100| 0| 0 BWI: 140102/2200Z 22 07008KT 39.5F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.022 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02 0| 0|100140102/2300Z 23 07010KT 37.7F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.043 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.06 0| 0|100140103/0000Z 24 07008KT 35.9F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.032 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.10 33| 0| 67----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---140103/0100Z 25 06006KT 33.7F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.046 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.14 75| 0| 25140103/0200Z 26 06006KT 33.3F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.038 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.18 73| 0| 27140103/0300Z 27 03007KT 33.0F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.033 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.21 83| 0| 17140103/0400Z 28 01009KT 32.3F SNOW 10:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.026 10:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.24 100| 0| 0140103/0500Z 29 36011KT 30.6F SNOW 9:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.029 10:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.27 100| 0| 0140103/0600Z 30 35014KT 28.1F SNOW 10:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.019 10:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.29 100| 0| 0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---140103/0700Z 31 34016KT 24.9F SNOW 16:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013 11:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.30 100| 0| 0140103/0800Z 32 33017KT 21.1F SNOW 20:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007 11:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.31 100| 0| 0140103/0900Z 33 33017KT 17.7F SNOW 23:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006 12:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.31 100| 0| 0 MRB: 140102/2000Z 20 06007KT 34.2F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 65| 0| 35140102/2100Z 21 08006KT 32.3F SNOW 17:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.066 17:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.07 100| 0| 0140102/2200Z 22 08006KT 32.1F SNOW 13:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.044 15:1| 1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.11 100| 0| 0140102/2300Z 23 08005KT 31.9F SNOW 14:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004 15:1| 1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.12 100| 0| 0140103/0000Z 24 06003KT 31.9F SNOW 11:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.015 15:1| 1.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.13 100| 0| 0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---140103/0100Z 25 02005KT 31.4F SNOW 12:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.023 14:1| 2.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.16 100| 0| 0140103/0200Z 26 01007KT 30.6F SNOW 7:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028 13:1| 2.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.18 100| 0| 0140103/0300Z 27 36012KT 28.8F SNOW 6:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.030 12:1| 2.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.21 100| 0| 0140103/0400Z 28 36015KT 26.3F SNOW 9:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.016 12:1| 2.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.23 100| 0| 0140103/0500Z 29 35017KT 21.6F SNOW 18:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006 12:1| 2.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.24 100| 0| 0140103/0600Z 30 34017KT 17.1F SNOW 22:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004 12:1| 2.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.24 100| 0| 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Got an updated one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I think reasonable people here have expectation in check, especially in relation to what our luck has been. I was talking to Matt earlier and was sorta half serious when I told him I expect 3 hours of light snow and that's about it. I honestly wouldn't be shocked with that outcome and a dusting. You know it's bad when the best model is showing the best solution and nobody is really excited. DC livin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 GFS diggin the sw a little more and a bit more juiced in w tn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 We need a good GFS or this is going to seem over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 GFS diggin the sw a little more and a bit more juiced in w tn. it's wetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 mild at onset too.. what happened to the cold snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 it's wetter It's a good run man. Closer to the euro. You can see it coming at h5. Precip is better organized. NE md jackpot. Shocker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 it's wetter Better all around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 looks like about 0.25" for DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 mild at onset too.. what happened to the cold snow i wonder how much snow we get after the temps super crash....they should drop pretty fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Weenie question, I've been hearing that the runs have been milder, how much would it affect totals if the storm came later when it was colder, or it was just colder at the surface overall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 It's a good run man. Closer to the euro. You can see it coming at h5. Precip is better organized. NE md jackpot. Shocker. true colors. not even.. it's like half the euro around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 mild at onset too.. what happened to the cold snow All cold snow disappeared awhile ago for DC. It's been wet snow falling to snow sticking to powder over a glaze of ice... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 i wonder how much snow we get after the temps super crash....they should drop pretty fast yeah it's just probably a pretty short window with any rates. not much change.. d-2" locally depending on how lucky you are etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 true colors. not even.. it's like half the euro around here. I was talking about the evolution and in comparison to 18z. I expect the euro to trim. I think .25-.30 is best case dca and some lost to rain. sheesh. Tough crowd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 GFS much better with the overrun snow. Should get everyone in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Am encourged to see coverage increasing but the batch down south really needs to move over northern and not southern georgia or all we will get is what moves in from west. When you get a cold push like this DC will do better snowwise at 34/35 than is customary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 true colors. not even.. it's like half the euro around here. what was euro QPF"? 0.38?...GFS is around 0.27?....so less but not insanely so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 FRI 00Z 03-JAN 1.9 -3.3 1005 94 97 0.05 544 540FRI 06Z 03-JAN -2.9 -5.8 1004 92 100 0.17 530 527FRI 12Z 03-JAN -11.6 -14.2 1016 79 80 0.02 526 513 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 All cold snow disappeared awhile ago for DC. It's been wet snow falling to snow sticking to powder over a glaze of ice... at least the sun angle is in our favor still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I was talking about the evolution and in comparison to 18z. I expect the euro to trim. I think .25-.30 is best case dca and some lost to rain. sheesh. Tough crowd. I'm gonna say with the slightly wetter trends, the euro holds or increases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 what was euro QPF"? 0.38?...GFS is around 0.27?....so less but not insanely so i only have to the tenth on the euro.. .4" at DCA per that. there was a little more liquid after my comment on the gfs. but it seems to be nearer the consensus now outside the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welbane Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 FRI 00Z 03-JAN 1.9 -3.3 1005 94 97 0.05 544 540 FRI 06Z 03-JAN -2.9 -5.8 1004 92 100 0.17 530 527 FRI 12Z 03-JAN -11.6 -14.2 1016 79 80 0.02 526 513 This should break the streak, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 at least the sun angle is in our favor still. Yeah, and anyone who holds expectations in check will have a pretty fun time Friday AM--- even 0.5" will swirl around to make drifts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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