PhineasC Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 0.39" for APG Seems far more reasonable. That wxbell stuff seems sort of junky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 This might be another one of those storms where we ignore the fact that every model has us above freezing for much of the event At least it crashes into the 20s at the end and it's dark out. But, yeah we need to look at text forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Seems to be the only model consistently with less than an inch for DC. true...if it is because of temps and not QPF, then NAM would "win" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 WxBell seems to have a 1.2 multiplier on it... E-Wall and NCEP site have nothing like that. .25-.5 area wide with DC at .25 and PHL at .75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 That's what I'm seeing Wes. It's a good run even if overdone. DC 2" odds went from 25% to 26% I'm going bullish- 33% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 yeah..that is something many have been ignoring... I also looked at the NCEp QPF and it's .10 different than the wxbell ones. Makes me wonder about the latter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 At least it crashes into the 20s at the end and it's dark out. But, yeah we need to look at text forecasts. 37 at 7pm 29 at 1am 12 at 7am http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_kdca.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 BWI looks to be at 32 at 10pm tomorrow night (3z Fri) http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=027ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_027_10m_wnd_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=10m_wnd_precip&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I also looked at the NCEp QPF and it's .10 different than the wxbell ones. Makes me wonder about the latter. I have SV and it is usually dead on...plus wxcaster has pretty accurate text output pretty quickly that matches http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_kdca.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 WxBell seems to have a 1.2 multiplier on it... E-Wall and NCEP site have nothing like that. .25-.5 area wide with DC at .25 and PHL at .75 my guess is they are adding the 6 hour panels every 3 hours without taking the diff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 BWI looks to be at 32 at 10pm tomorrow night (3z Fri) http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=027ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_027_10m_wnd_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=10m_wnd_precip&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=L APG is OK too starts at 33 and then dives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 yeah..that is something many have been ignoring... I know you probably know this, but the Euro looks much colder for you. If it comes in cold again tonight you should be ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I know you probably know this, but the Euro looks much colder for you. If it comes in cold again tonight you should be ok. DCA isn't Manchester. You guys get .25 and you squeeze out 3.5 inches. DCA gets .25 and maybe a slushy dusting. It's been marginal for every event for a couple of years now. I can see why snow. would be skeptical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 The boundary layer is pretty warm pretty late, I think DCA is 37 at 03Z. That would waste a lot of precip as rain. Nam has been warmer than the euro/gfs. It could be right for sure though. We have a history of being on the warmer side of guidance. With that said, I'm happy with the run. The rug is still under us. As discussed yesterday, ne md will prob win the accum title. I could squeeze 2 or maybe a tad more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I know you probably know this, but the Euro looks much colder for you. If it comes in cold again tonight you should be ok. I'd like to see it have more support...esp since the NAM has a wet bias and the GFS has been dry...If the GFS holds, I have to imagine the euro had a kooky run and will come into line with the other models in the 0.15 - 0.25" range for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 DCA isn't Manchester. You guys get .25 and you squeeze out 3.5 inches. DCA gets .25 and maybe a slushy dusting. It's been marginal for every event for a couple of years now. I can see why snow. would be skeptical. True for the most part but this isn't a typical event. Most storm don't see a 20 degree drop in 8 hours. If they can get into a decent band when temps crash, even if it's just for an hour or two before the good precip. cuts off they can get 1.5-2.0. I'm certainly not guaranteeing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I'd like to see it have more support...esp since the NAM has a wet bias and the GFS has been dry...If the GFS holds, I have to imagine the euro had a kooky run and will come into line with the other models in the 0.15 - 0.25" range for DC We'll see. I'll be up as usual. Nam looked about the best it has at h5 so far. Euro was pretty juiced sw of us during the afternoon tomorrow. It could hold but will likely trim a bit if I had to guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I'd like to see it have more support...esp since the NAM has a wet bias and the GFS has been dry...If the GFS holds, I have to imagine the euro had a kooky run and will come into line with the other models in the 0.15 - 0.25" range for DC I guess you don't count the SREF and RGEM/GGEM? Both seem inline with the Euro on precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Do y'all think the streak is broken with this? I don't think it will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 It could be one of those things where NW DC is at 1.5" and the ground is just starting to be coated at DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 JB just posted on the WxBell site that the 12km QPF on their site was screwed up. Said the 4km was good. RE: The NAM ETA: "I am not a QPF fan but it appears the NAM 12KM is 2 to 3 times above what is actually printed out on our site, and its counterweight is to decrease snow by 2 to 3 times. The HIRES looks good." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Do y'all think the streak is broken with this? I don't think it will be. 20% chance edit: that might be a little bullish actually. I don't get probability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Do y'all think the streak is broken with this? I don't think it will be. Your streak of posting in a disco thread with zero analysis is still in tact. To answer your question, I think odds are firmly against for now. Matt and Ian might get 2" but dca will not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 just a reminder, when do we hit 3 years for the streak? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I feel sorry for the local broadcast meteorologists at this point while the oscillating model data continues to come in while they are giving their forecasts on-the-air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 just a reminder, when do we hit 3 years for the streak? jan 27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 It could be one of those things where NW DC is at 1.5" and the ground is just starting to be coated at DCA. Very good point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 LWX is being disciplined about not issuing winter weather advisories because they don't think anything of consequence will stick till after sunset. They have another model cycle or two before needing to up any advisories. Anyone know the rules on lead time for issuing advisories? In their AFD, they talk about trimming DC and points south and east. The new DC snow climatology seems to be coating to an inch. Wisconsin Avenue out to Rockville is a different world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Just checked the guidance and it seems like many are more focused on the QPF total and not so much on the warm temps and how much QPF will be wasted at the start. I live near DC and am expecting a light slushy coating of the taller blades of grass. The 2" streak will not be broken, I'm nearly 100% certain of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 FWIW, Rgem still wet. No accumulation map available yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.