WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 What the heck is LWX seeing? They keep raising snowfall, both likely and max. I'm having a hard time finding positives at this stage. If you're referring to their snowfall map, it is computer generated. Ok, I can go along with that, but what's the computer basing it on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Maxes have gone up. My forecast was less than 1. Is now 1-3. I guess I'm so D.C. Centered that I didn't see Baltimore's maxes go up and the Fredrick area as well. All I saw was the D.C areas go down. EDIT: Deleted the large maps for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 There we go. Into the less than 1" for me. Slow and steady. you're young and single; now would be the time to move Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 There we go. Into the less than 1" for me. Slow and steady. Maybe you'll get the max Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueapple Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Maxes have gone up. My forecast was less than 1. Is now 1-3. *shrugs* both max and likely went down for me with the latest afternoon update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Ok, I can go along with that, but what's the computer basing it on? No idea. But they change constantly, and are never consistent with point and click or the zone forecasts. During one if the last events, my point and click, the zone forecast, that snow map AND the advisory were not the same in regards to snow amounts. Some were computer generated while others were human entered. I'd take that snow map with a grain of salt, at least with how often it changes. Especially the min/max potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 meh, those forecasts rise and fall with each model run and are 2-3 hours behind them to boot so that by the time they update them the next suite of model runs begins in an hour Lwx computer generated stuff is useless imo and the only time I'm forced to look at it is when it's posted here. Even a good weenie is a better forecaster than that output. Although I'm pretty sure the dc proper forecast is accurate. Ian might want to rent a car and head to Elkton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Vinyl, I recall your post from earlier today and I have been watching the pressure falls, but did not believe they were that large, and this hour is less than the previous 2 hours the importance is location and separation from the main low...the main low is also taking on a very strange appearance, very strung out... not sure what to think of that yet... precip is breaking out in W TN which is kinda strange... still haven't analyzed that closely yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 No idea. But they change constantly, and are never consistent with point and click or the zone forecasts. During one if the last events, my point and click, the zone forecast, that snow map AND the advisory were not the same in regards to snow amounts. Some were computer generated while others were human entered. I'd take that snow map with a grain of salt, at least with how often it changes. Especially the min/max potential. It's funny we are talking about this. Dec 8 and 10 I exceeded their max and Dec 14 I missed it by 1". I could see you guys get a big surprise out of this but I don't see any way I could exceed 2", probably not 1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 It's funny we are talking about this. Dec 8 and 10 I exceeded their max and Dec 14 I missed it by 1". I could see you guys get a big surprise out of this but I don't see any way I could exceed 2", probably not 1". I'm not expecting anything over 2" here. I think areas east of me will do better. Can see someone getting 4-5" in Cecil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 SREF is around 0.3 - 0.35" or so for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 What the heck is LWX seeing? They keep raising snowfall, both likely and max. I'm having a hard time finding positives at this stage. Our biggest hope is that the northern vort can get some front end moisture to us. Once the transfer starts we are screwed out here. I hope DCA breaks the streak. But I agree with some of the earlier posts. This storm is for BWI and north east of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 *shrugs* both max and likely went down for me with the latest afternoon update. For the most part those maps seem meaningless. The 90th percentile wording seems misleading. There should be some sort of alert that the max potential is for extremely rare boom potentials, imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 again, FWIW, radar looks nothing like 12Z or 18Z NAM Things seem to be developing quite a bit earlier than modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Water vapor looks great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Water vapor looks great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 again, FWIW, radar looks nothing like 12Z or 18Z NAM 01022014_prestormradar.png Things seem to be developing quite a bit earlier than modeled. use nws high res radar...it is pretty much dead on with NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 again, FWIW, radar looks nothing like 12Z or 18Z NAM 01022014_prestormradar.png Things seem to be developing quite a bit earlier than modeled. Looks pretty close to me. I bet a lot of the discrepancies are virga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 again, FWIW, radar looks nothing like 12Z or 18Z NAM 01022014_prestormradar.png Things seem to be developing quite a bit earlier than modeled. Looks remarkably similar, maybe a little bit west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 SREF is around 0.3 - 0.35" or so for DC How about BWI and NE MD? Sorry for the IMBY question but I can't make sense of the NCEP SREF graphics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 How about BWI and NE MD? Sorry for the IMBY question but I can't make sense of the NCEP SREF graphics. You can get the plumes here: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 How about BWI and NE MD? Sorry for the IMBY question but I can't make sense of the NCEP SREF graphics. ~0.40-0.45" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 use nws high res radar...it is pretty much dead on with NAM Looks pretty close to me. I bet a lot of the discrepancies are virga. Looks remarkably similar, maybe a little bit west. this is the area to which I am referring being different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 You can get the plumes here: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/ Wow, pretty bullish for APG. Looks like mean snow is a bit less than 6 inches. Good cluster between 2-4 which is about what I expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lswx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 again, FWIW, radar looks nothing like 12Z or 18Z NAM 01022014_prestormradar.png Things seem to be developing quite a bit earlier than modeled. Are you joking? Look at your post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 (Do what I say, not what I do) NAM looks south and healthier from 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 One of the SREF members gives Boston 52". Seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Wow, pretty bullish for APG. Looks like mean snow is a bit less than 6 inches. Good cluster between 2-4 which is about what I expect. Yeah...I don't buy the estimated snow accumulation. Looks like it's going for >10:1 ratios. I could see 12:1 near the end of the storm, but we'll probably lose a bit of precip to rain/mixing at the onset. Still, the estimated precip is looking good...if we want to trust the SREF. Huge amount of spread for something <24hrs away from start though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Are you joking? Look at your post specifically referring to the area of precip in W TN... not the over all radar. Edit: see my above post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 (Do what I say, not what I do) NAM looks south and healthier from 18z Vort looks better for sure. Not worried about the other panels too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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