snow. Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 hmmm...mean for total precip or snow? 0z mean was somewhere between .8-1.0 for total precip. precip, though I think you are too high with 0z precip...anyway the track is markedly better than 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 the ridge is in much better position for us this time than boxing day Yeah, I couldn't remember the details of that set-up...thanks for noting that difference. Of course with this kind of situation it's very tenuous, but sure nice to see more consensus in a good way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I'm interested in the members if anyone gets them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 the ridge is in much better position for us this time than boxing day Def agree... I admit that I went back and checked that exact storm to see if any correlation... anywho a bit surprised that the models brought us back in the game... I guess 18z GFS is crucial Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Nam shows a perfect disaster dryslot. No disco? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Nam shows a perfect disaster dryslot. No disco? toss it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 toss it agreed toss it, its out of its accuracy range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Nam shows a perfect disaster dryslot. No disco? Ask Zwyts, snow or Matt Ross about the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Yes, I think so. I noticed last night that the EC and GFS had both trended south from the previous runs. They certainly weren't there yet, but 96 hours out the trend is the one thing I was most focused on.. So...if this actually works out like this, do we owe credit to the UKMET? That's the one that has been harping most on this type of possibility I believe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Plus it doesn't show what we want it to show. Looks like 12z NAM run without the light precip. Hopefully, we can toss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 This was posted to twitter via a Millersville grad now AccuWx met. This is for PHILLY, but shows variability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 Nam shows a perfect disaster dryslot. No disco? I wouldn't even bother at this point, the features that compose the diving trough are barely even in the model grid spatial range. Edit: Just checked, they aren't even in the spatial grid to begin with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Still not totally sold on the Euro, I'd like to see it show the same thing 2 runs in a row. However, last time the GFS showed a convoluted mess and the Euro had a more phased solution the Euro won. Hope it holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I wouldn't even bother at this point, the features that compose the diving trough are barely even in the model grid spatial range. Edit: Just checked, they aren't even in the spatial grid to begin with. I was just poking fun. If the nam showed a hit there would be 2 extra pages on this thread. The nam will not do well with progressive stream interaction and miller b/hybrid storms even 24 hours before. It's not a nam wheelhouse storm. I have no worries about the run or many to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Nam shows a perfect disaster dryslot. No disco? Not the same dryslot that Matt is worried about. NAM just isn't close to a similar solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I take a 24 hour break and Boom. I was calling all week for a stronger secondary and the Euro gives it. The solution is about as good as its gonna get for us. Still need to be prepared for a Miller B screw job though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Well this is why we all ever even gathered at a weather internet site to begin with. Organized low pressure slowly gathering strength and moving northeastward while strong, cold high pressure surrounds us to the w-nw-n-ne account for about 90% of the 4"+ storms that effect DC. Gotta be careful about counting on the secondary. The TN low can be troubling but looks like enough strong high pressure to mitigate the warming effects of that. The models will now show Everything for next 2 days, that is what they are designed to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 so it may actually be all snow out here, wet snow for the most part I am thinking until near the end. Shows 1.14 for Westminster. All qpf. falls as snow. Most of the heaviest part of the storm would be powder. Keep your fingers crosssed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Vort is a tad stronger with similar or better dig into nm/tx than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I almost don't want to look at the 18z. GFS... nervous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 nam_3hr_snow_acc_ne_29.png There's not much of a noreaster in that map. Safe to say we can toss this solution for now as this type of storm is NOT in the NAM's wheelhouse. Still, that snow-less bubble made me laugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 This run won't make many friends. Dryslot fears abound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 nam_3hr_snow_acc_ne_29.png That scared me I thought that was the GFS. Mini heart attack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 This run won't make many friends. Dryslot fears abound. The coastal looks east of 12z and much weaker. This would actually be the worst scenario for the entire eastern seaboard for significant snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 GFS looks better..a little more consolidated, but faster too. You can tell it wants to form a low near WAL..but a weenie convective low sort of messes it up. Could be feedback, but also real as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Coastal is talking about sne. It's not better here. Basically the shaft. Secondary mostly skips us. Redevelopment too far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 No so happy hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 It's 18z gfs toss it. Not even sure why they run off hour anymore. They never show a reliable solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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