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January 2/3 Event - Disco., Nowcasting, and Obs.


wxmeddler

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Yes, I think so. I noticed last night that the EC and GFS had both trended south from the previous runs. They certainly weren't there yet, but 96 hours out the trend is the one thing I was most focused on..

So...if this actually works out like this, do we owe credit to the UKMET? That's the one that has been harping most on this type of possibility I believe?

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I wouldn't even bother at this point, the features that compose the diving trough are barely even in the model grid spatial range.

Edit: Just checked, they aren't even in the spatial grid to begin with.

 

I was just poking fun. If the nam showed a hit there would be 2 extra pages on this thread. The nam will not do well with progressive stream interaction and miller b/hybrid storms even 24 hours before. It's not a nam wheelhouse storm. I have no worries about the run or many to come. 

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Well this is why we all ever even gathered at a weather internet site to begin with.

Organized low pressure slowly gathering strength and moving northeastward while strong, cold high pressure surrounds us to the w-nw-n-ne account for about 90% of the 4"+ storms that effect DC.

Gotta be careful about counting on the secondary.  The TN low can be troubling but looks like enough strong high pressure to mitigate the warming effects of that.  The models will now show Everything for next 2 days, that is what they are designed to do.

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