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January 2/3 Event - Disco., Nowcasting, and Obs.


wxmeddler

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FWIW- 31 euro ens members show 2+ for dca. The rest show at least some accum snow. The mean climbed above 3". Kinda close in for ens but they back up the op big time.

The ensembles have been on top of this from the get-go and driving the op it seems.

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So a little over 60% want to break our drought. Good trends.

It was an outlier compared to all other guidance. Well, except the rgem. I wouldn't go anywhere near 60%. Maybe 25%.

It was nice to see the members back the op though. Might not mean much but it's better than having the op and ens at odds. It's a pretty important 0z suite tonight. More important that what the euro showed at 12z. My expectations remain bearish overall. But improved last couple days.

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Agreed. But I was surprised to see virtually no whiffs. Euro liked us earlier today for some reason. Plenty of time to hate. The hate bus might arrive in less than 6 hours.

incredible what 4 years of despair will do to us snow weenies

if we didn't have the snow drought we've had, we would be all in with the Euro and chuckling at the rest of the models that went against it

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Tough call for DC and most of MD. Euro is the best model, but it has been late to the game with this storm.  I guess stick with 1-2" for now and maybe raise or lower with later runs.

 

And 14 of the last 15 events in DC have looked exactly like what the GFS is showing, so I'm tempted to go with the GFS.

 

Overall very displeased with this storm. Could have been a KU February 1964 like setup if we had good blocking and a decent less progressive shortwave. Instead we're looking at 1/4 of that at best.

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How have the SREF's been performing?  I seem to remember them being fairly accurate for previous storms (at least at Dulles).  

 

I like that the mean is still 4 inches.  Sure that is probably iffy, but even half that breaks the DC disaster streak.

 

ETA: The above means I am riding the SREF's like a 7 year old rides a new bike.

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Tough call for DC and most of MD. Euro is the best model, but it has been late to the game with this storm.  I guess stick with 1-2" for now and maybe raise or lower with later runs.

 

And 14 of the last 15 events in DC have looked exactly like what the GFS is showing, so I'm tempted to go with the GFS.

 

Overall very displeased with this storm. Could have been a KU February 1964 like setup if we had good blocking and a decent less progressive shortwave. Instead we're looking at 1/4 of that at best.

Stick with the GFS. .5 - 2.0" for D,C., more northeast. The wretched ECMWF has predicted 30.0" of my 1.5" so far this winter. 

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Surprised that sterling nws hasn't posted anything on their advisory maps yet. My point and click says 3-5" overnight Thur... Figured I'd at least be yellow with a hazardous weather outlook. Maybe even winter storm watch for harford county. I know it's a 12 hour outlook usually but most surrounding forecast centers have posted. I know it doesn't hold a lot of weight, but it gives people at work something to discuss.

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incredible what 4 years of despair will do to us snow weenies

if we didn't have the snow drought we've had, we would be all in with the Euro and chuckling at the rest of the models that went against it

If it wasn't for the 4 years of snow despair, I'm sure some of us would be looking at this current "storm" differently.  Instead of hoping that we can squeeze an inch or 2 out of this, many here (probably me included) would be fretting the much higher snow totals likely northeast of here.  Snow droughts  change your perspective on things.  I'll gladly take 1-3 inches of snow here even if NYC to Boston get 1-2 feet.

 

MDstorm

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Surprised that sterling nws hasn't posted anything on their advisory maps yet. My point and click says 3-5" overnight Thur... Figured I'd at least be yellow with a hazardous weather outlook. Maybe even winter storm watch for harford county. I know it's a 12 hour outlook usually but most surrounding forecast centers have posted. I know it doesn't hold a lot of weight, but it gives people at work something to discuss.

Per their 4pm discussion:

A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ARE PSBL...ESPECIALLY IN THE ERN PART

OF THE CA...BUT NOT ENUF TO WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A WATCH. MOST

LKLY ADVSRYS WL NEED TO BE CONTEMPLATED LATE TNGT OR ERLY THU.

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Per their 4pm discussion:

A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ARE PSBL...ESPECIALLY IN THE ERN PART

OF THE CA...BUT NOT ENUF TO WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A WATCH. MOST

LKLY ADVSRYS WL NEED TO BE CONTEMPLATED LATE TNGT OR ERLY THU.

They have actually lowered their totals this evening. In my point and click i went from 2-4" to 1-3".

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sfc_con_3pres.gif

 

this is about the final nail in the coffin for me... that lowering pressure off the NC coast is bad. I think Ellinwood's map is reasonable and may be a bit on the high side, especially NW of DC.... this will be a BAL and NE storm... congrats

 

NOTE: Time sensitive

Vinyl, I recall your post from earlier today and I have been watching the pressure falls, but did not believe they were that large, and this hour is less than the previous 2 hours

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What the heck is LWX seeing? They keep raising snowfall, both likely and max. I'm having a hard time finding positives at this stage.

I don't see where you are seeing added snowfall. By DC, they've clearly decreased the max and the likely numbers. 

Maxes have gone up. My forecast was less than 1. Is now 1-3.

ahazype9.jpg

yhy4a3ag.jpg

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They have actually lowered their totals this evening. In my point and click i went from 2-4" to 1-3".

meh, those forecasts rise and fall with each model run and are 2-3 hours behind them to boot so that by the time they update them the next suite of model runs begins in an hour

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