ravensrule Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I don't know who snow goose is sorry A Met from NY, like you did not already know that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 FWIW- 31 euro ens members show 2+ for dca. The rest show at least some accum snow. The mean climbed above 3". Kinda close in for ens but they back up the op big time. The ensembles have been on top of this from the get-go and driving the op it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 So a little over 60% want to break our drought. Good trends. It was an outlier compared to all other guidance. Well, except the rgem. I wouldn't go anywhere near 60%. Maybe 25%. It was nice to see the members back the op though. Might not mean much but it's better than having the op and ens at odds. It's a pretty important 0z suite tonight. More important that what the euro showed at 12z. My expectations remain bearish overall. But improved last couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 LWX seems like they want to now experiment with the effects from the Potomac. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/winter/images/StormTotalSnowRange.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 A Met from NY, like you did not already know that.I clicked through but otherwise not really. I never leave this subforum most of the time anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Ellinwood went 1-2/2-4" http://madusweather.com/2014/01/winter-storm-threat-jan-2-3-onlyfinal-call/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 The ensembles have been on top of this from the get-go and driving the op it seems.In this range it would be surprising. They should probably look as described given the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 In this range it would be surprising. They should probably look as described given the op. Agreed. But I was surprised to see virtually no whiffs. Euro liked us earlier today for some reason. Plenty of time to hate. The hate bus might arrive in less than 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Agreed. But I was surprised to see virtually no whiffs. Euro liked us earlier today for some reason. Plenty of time to hate. The hate bus might arrive in less than 6 hours. incredible what 4 years of despair will do to us snow weenies if we didn't have the snow drought we've had, we would be all in with the Euro and chuckling at the rest of the models that went against it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 RAP is almost in range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Tough call for DC and most of MD. Euro is the best model, but it has been late to the game with this storm. I guess stick with 1-2" for now and maybe raise or lower with later runs. And 14 of the last 15 events in DC have looked exactly like what the GFS is showing, so I'm tempted to go with the GFS. Overall very displeased with this storm. Could have been a KU February 1964 like setup if we had good blocking and a decent less progressive shortwave. Instead we're looking at 1/4 of that at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Ellinwood went 1-2/2-4" http://madusweather.com/2014/01/winter-storm-threat-jan-2-3-onlyfinal-call/ Not good for me, but he's good. Honestly, I don't think I'd forecast an inch for mby. Unless the euro backs itself later on , that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 How have the SREF's been performing? I seem to remember them being fairly accurate for previous storms (at least at Dulles). I like that the mean is still 4 inches. Sure that is probably iffy, but even half that breaks the DC disaster streak. ETA: The above means I am riding the SREF's like a 7 year old rides a new bike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Tough call for DC and most of MD. Euro is the best model, but it has been late to the game with this storm. I guess stick with 1-2" for now and maybe raise or lower with later runs. And 14 of the last 15 events in DC have looked exactly like what the GFS is showing, so I'm tempted to go with the GFS. Overall very displeased with this storm. Could have been a KU February 1964 like setup if we had good blocking and a decent less progressive shortwave. Instead we're looking at 1/4 of that at best. Stick with the GFS. .5 - 2.0" for D,C., more northeast. The wretched ECMWF has predicted 30.0" of my 1.5" so far this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 this is about the final nail in the coffin for me... that lowering pressure off the NC coast is bad. I think Ellinwood's map is reasonable and may be a bit on the high side, especially NW of DC.... this will be a BAL and NE storm... congrats NOTE: Time sensitive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
birdsofprey02 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Surprised that sterling nws hasn't posted anything on their advisory maps yet. My point and click says 3-5" overnight Thur... Figured I'd at least be yellow with a hazardous weather outlook. Maybe even winter storm watch for harford county. I know it's a 12 hour outlook usually but most surrounding forecast centers have posted. I know it doesn't hold a lot of weight, but it gives people at work something to discuss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I clicked through but otherwise not really. I never leave this subforum most of the time anymore. I just thought you were yanking my chain, he is one of the most prolific posters in the NY subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Ellinwood went 1-2/2-4" http://madusweather.com/2014/01/winter-storm-threat-jan-2-3-onlyfinal-call/ Another very good and realistic map from Mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 What the heck is LWX seeing? They keep raising snowfall, both likely and max. I'm having a hard time finding positives at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Another very good and realistic map from Mark.It is pretty good. Maybe a little bullish but who knows. I have never made a map on my own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 incredible what 4 years of despair will do to us snow weenies if we didn't have the snow drought we've had, we would be all in with the Euro and chuckling at the rest of the models that went against it If it wasn't for the 4 years of snow despair, I'm sure some of us would be looking at this current "storm" differently. Instead of hoping that we can squeeze an inch or 2 out of this, many here (probably me included) would be fretting the much higher snow totals likely northeast of here. Snow droughts change your perspective on things. I'll gladly take 1-3 inches of snow here even if NYC to Boston get 1-2 feet. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 It is pretty good. Maybe a little bullish but who knows. I have never made a map on my own. In the southern area of the 2-4" 4 is highly unlikely but when making a map you do not really have a choice, unless you want it to look like DT's map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Surprised that sterling nws hasn't posted anything on their advisory maps yet. My point and click says 3-5" overnight Thur... Figured I'd at least be yellow with a hazardous weather outlook. Maybe even winter storm watch for harford county. I know it's a 12 hour outlook usually but most surrounding forecast centers have posted. I know it doesn't hold a lot of weight, but it gives people at work something to discuss. Per their 4pm discussion: A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ARE PSBL...ESPECIALLY IN THE ERN PART OF THE CA...BUT NOT ENUF TO WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A WATCH. MOST LKLY ADVSRYS WL NEED TO BE CONTEMPLATED LATE TNGT OR ERLY THU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 What the heck is LWX seeing? They keep raising snowfall, both likely and max. I'm having a hard time finding positives at this stage. I don't see where you are seeing added snowfall. By DC, they've clearly decreased the max and the likely numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Per their 4pm discussion: A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ARE PSBL...ESPECIALLY IN THE ERN PART OF THE CA...BUT NOT ENUF TO WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A WATCH. MOST LKLY ADVSRYS WL NEED TO BE CONTEMPLATED LATE TNGT OR ERLY THU. They have actually lowered their totals this evening. In my point and click i went from 2-4" to 1-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 What the heck is LWX seeing? They keep raising snowfall, both likely and max. I'm having a hard time finding positives at this stage. If you're referring to their snowfall map, it is computer generated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 this is about the final nail in the coffin for me... that lowering pressure off the NC coast is bad. I think Ellinwood's map is reasonable and may be a bit on the high side, especially NW of DC.... this will be a BAL and NE storm... congrats NOTE: Time sensitive Vinyl, I recall your post from earlier today and I have been watching the pressure falls, but did not believe they were that large, and this hour is less than the previous 2 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 What the heck is LWX seeing? They keep raising snowfall, both likely and max. I'm having a hard time finding positives at this stage. I don't see where you are seeing added snowfall. By DC, they've clearly decreased the max and the likely numbers. Maxes have gone up. My forecast was less than 1. Is now 1-3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 There we go. Into the less than 1" for me. Slow and steady. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 They have actually lowered their totals this evening. In my point and click i went from 2-4" to 1-3". meh, those forecasts rise and fall with each model run and are 2-3 hours behind them to boot so that by the time they update them the next suite of model runs begins in an hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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