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January 2/3 Event - Disco., Nowcasting, and Obs.


wxmeddler

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going back 10 years when DT gave a presentation at Marcus's house, I have never bought into this idea that the models are so much better at the upper level details and lag behind at the surface....that the surface has to be wrong because it isn't supported by the 500mb output...i'm more interested in how the models resolve the surface here...the GFS moved north last run at 500 mb and yet the surface features moved south ....as DTK and Chris have reiterated, the models aren't programmed to give solutions that aren't meteorologically possible

but the models aren't always right, so to say they aren't "programmed" to give solutions that are not met possible is useless in my book

the meteorologically possible solutions they often give us are still wrong

moreover, just because they weren't programmed to do something doesn't mean a machine built by a man won't go haywire

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looks the same for me and you...we still get our 1"

Yea, I had way too many tabs open. I was clicking between the wrong ones. You are right though. It's an inch and I'll take it. I'm not encouraged that I will see much more at this point. We'll see.

ETA: There are some notable changes se of us irt to precip shield expanse and intensity. More organized down there. Not sure if it's good or bad. Just pointing it out.

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GFS puts the slp right off the obx in the best spot I've seen but it scoots it east while developing

Yea, that part is kinda odd. Tracks across wv-central va then pops south off obx. Sure would like to see better development to the the nw side as it crosses va but it's such a complicated and messy setup who knows how right or wrong the run is.

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it is hard to take the euro verbatim with the big shift and its bias to overamplify...it's just that it is so much better than the NAM with a complex northern stream situation, it is hard to dismiss....curious about the GFS at 18z,

I think if the euro max is right it will be north of where it forecast it....my back yard.  It did that on one of the earlier storms this year.  I still like the dusting to 2" forecast. 

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Effective with tonight's 00Z runs I'm starting to ride the RGEM, its yet to be on a storm thus far this winter...unless it shows something drastically different than the others at 00Z I'll be using it for my forecasts.

 

 

GFS must have sucked if I see RGEM images.

And you make fun.

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