snow. Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 heh...GFS holds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Ouch. Euro is on it's own. GFS is worse. It's quicker and redevelopment is too late for the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 heh...GFS holds Surprised Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 going back 10 years when DT gave a presentation at Marcus's house, I have never bought into this idea that the models are so much better at the upper level details and lag behind at the surface....that the surface has to be wrong because it isn't supported by the 500mb output...i'm more interested in how the models resolve the surface here...the GFS moved north last run at 500 mb and yet the surface features moved south ....as DTK and Chris have reiterated, the models aren't programmed to give solutions that aren't meteorologically possible but the models aren't always right, so to say they aren't "programmed" to give solutions that are not met possible is useless in my book the meteorologically possible solutions they often give us are still wrong moreover, just because they weren't programmed to do something doesn't mean a machine built by a man won't go haywire Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Ouch. Euro is on it's own. GFS is worse. It's quicker and redevelopment is too late for the cities. looks the same for me and you...we still get our 1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Sorry about my last post. Comparing wrong panels. It held but it won't make me more encouraged at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 looks the same for me and you...we still get our 1"Yea, I had way too many tabs open. I was clicking between the wrong ones. You are right though. It's an inch and I'll take it. I'm not encouraged that I will see much more at this point. We'll see.ETA: There are some notable changes se of us irt to precip shield expanse and intensity. More organized down there. Not sure if it's good or bad. Just pointing it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 GFS puts the slp right off the obx in the best spot I've seen but it scoots it east while developing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 GFS puts the slp right off the obx in the best spot I've seen but it scoots it east while developing Yea, that part is kinda odd. Tracks across wv-central va then pops south off obx. Sure would like to see better development to the the nw side as it crosses va but it's such a complicated and messy setup who knows how right or wrong the run is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 according to gfs panels when does the trough go negative tile, at what hour?? Approxcimately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 it is hard to take the euro verbatim with the big shift and its bias to overamplify...it's just that it is so much better than the NAM with a complex northern stream situation, it is hard to dismiss....curious about the GFS at 18z, I think if the euro max is right it will be north of where it forecast it....my back yard. It did that on one of the earlier storms this year. I still like the dusting to 2" forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Give me the RGEM and the whole subforum would be thrilled. 4-6" for all except Mapgirl and Ji . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 What is it with the RGEM..it loves this storm for us for some reason. Meh...I wish it were a top tier model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 What is it with the RGEM..it loves this storm for us for some reason. Meh...I wish it were a top tier model. For this one storm i envision it being Tyson Beckford. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 GFS must have sucked if I see RGEM images. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 GFS must have sucked if I see RGEM images. It was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 GFS must have sucked if I see RGEM images. Desperate times call for desperate measures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I'm not sure you can say the gfs sucked. It held serve to its previous run. Central DE weenies are running naked tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Effective with tonight's 00Z runs I'm starting to ride the RGEM, its yet to be on a storm thus far this winter...unless it shows something drastically different than the others at 00Z I'll be using it for my forecasts. GFS must have sucked if I see RGEM images. And you make fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 And you make fun.I don't know who snow goose is sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Give me the RGEM and the whole subforum would be thrilled. 4-6" for all except Mapgirl and Ji . Here's the snowfall for that time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I've never looked at the rgem much at all. If it's right then I'll be putting a crown on it until it busts. My guess is there will be no crowning ceremony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Even the cras has mostly bailed, giving us 2-4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Even the cras has mostly bailed, giving us 2-4". That is a fine amount. Plenty! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Even the cras has mostly bailed, giving us 2-4".Its the CRAS I dont Think Its ever been accurate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Any model that gives me some atmospheric flakes is a winner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 FWIW- 31 euro ens members show 2+ for dca. The rest show at least some accum snow. The mean climbed above 3". Kinda close in for ens but they back up the op big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 FWIW- 31 euro ens members show 2+ for dca. The rest show at least some accum snow. The mean climbed above 3". Kinda close in for ens but they back up the op big time. Weenie -trying-to-learn question, how many ens members are there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Weenie -trying-to-learn question, how many ens members are there? 51 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 51 So a little over 60% want to break our drought. Good trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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