Ian Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Could easily be. But then last night was a burp from its previous run. Euro isn't all that it's been made to be. I trolled that last year. This year I don't even need to troll. Today's 12z Euro was a pretty big shift from the past two runs which were more or less similar outside specific totals etc. It's had a few other outlier runs as well--the one that DT went all in on etc. Unless it looks the same/better tonight... I'm not weighting it too heavily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Advisories issued to our north, watch up for Philly Yep, Winter Storm Watch just posted for Northern Delaware, SE PA, and most of NJ. We are so close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Today's 12z Euro was a pretty big shift from the past two runs which were more or less similar outside specific totals etc. It's had a few other outlier runs as well--the one that DT went all in on etc. Unless it looks the same/better tonight... I'm not weighting it too heavily. And we'll have 2 gfs runs to mull over before then... There has been a noticeable shift towards inconsistency with the euro @ d4 on in. I don't think it has a deadly range anymore. And the gfs has seemed improved this year but that is mostly based on memory and not stats. If 18z gfs looks more euro'ish then 0z will be telling..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 The snow weenies would be lost without the max potential. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/winter/images/SnowAmt90Prcntl.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Advisories issued to our north, watch up for Philly Philly might be the best EC city for snow.. gets the northern stream and the southern stream well. The problem with Boston is you have to live in New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Philly might be the best EC city for snow.. gets the northern stream and the southern stream well. The problem with Boston is you have to live in New England. Yeah, philly looks to do well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Probabilities for 1 and 2" seem appropriate -- perhaps a little higher than I would have expected, especially for the 2". Then again, I'm taking more of a pessimistic approach. If anything, I'm hoping that MBY on the northeast side would be favorable for a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 The snow weenies would be lost without the max potential. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/winter/images/SnowAmt90Prcntl.png Honestly I think that max is low. In no way am I saying that I expect 5 inches out of this thing, but I doubt that is the "max" potential of this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 If you smooth out the outliers the overwhelming consensus is still for fairly light qpf for you and me at least. The Euro run had enough changes from prior ones not to take it as any significant sign IMO. It's certainly a possible solution but I'm not weighting it that heavily myself. The NAM run here more or less fits into larger consensus envelope whether it's right or wrong. It is the furthest north of any model and well further north of the euro which is the most southern solution...I dont really see a consensus in the evolution of this thing...but the NAM has no support for its track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 It is the furthest north of any model and well further north of the euro which is the most southern solution...I dont really see a consensus in the evolution of this thing...but the NAM has no support for its track I was more referencing the precip pattern around this area and the fact that the low isn't quick to get going till further east as opposed to the last Euro focusing a lot more on the trailing bagginess which not many model runs have done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 i wouldnt discount anything that screws us from snow voice of experience Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 And we'll have 2 gfs runs to mull over before then... There has been a noticeable shift towards inconsistency with the euro @ d4 on in. I don't think it has a deadly range anymore. And the gfs has seemed improved this year but that is mostly based on memory and not stats. If 18z gfs looks more euro'ish then 0z will be telling..lol we have 2 "outliers"...the NAM and the euro........Not sure why anyone would favor the NAM over the euro...it is an inferior model with an awful history of handling complex synoptics...it serves no use.....I think the only reason people tend toward it is because it screws us..and for that fact alone....If it showed 0.75" it would surprise nobody Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Honestly I think that max is low. In no way am I saying that I expect 5 inches out of this thing, but I doubt that is the "max" potential of this system. It's not really a max. If you look it says ninetieth percentile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 These are the last three runs of the Euro. The last two before today looked a lot closer to most other guidance.. that's all my point is there. I don't know if anyone's favoring the NAM as top guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I was more referencing the precip pattern around this area and the fact that the low isn't quick to get going till further east as opposed to the last Euro focusing a lot more on the trailing bagginess which not many model runs have done. It cut its own QPF in half at the same time the euro ramped up...usually at this point, the euro would be showing 0.15" and the NAM would have a run showing 0.8", and everyone would laugh at it but defend it....until the euro has support, I consider it overamped, too far south....but when a superior model moves in one direction and an inferior model moves in the other, I am going to favor the superior model....i think the big problem is the NAM screws us, and everyone knows that is a possibility Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 These are the last three runs of the Euro. The last two before today looked a lot closer to most other guidance.. that's all my point is there. I don't know if anyone's favoring the NAM as top guidance. 1.png 2.png 3.png it is hard to take the euro verbatim with the big shift and its bias to overamplify...it's just that it is so much better than the NAM with a complex northern stream situation, it is hard to dismiss....curious about the GFS at 18z, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 would you be arguing the same Ian if those maps were flipped and the prior 2 runs looked like todays 12z? just wondering Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 It cut its own QPF in half at the same time the euro ramped up...usually at this point, the euro would be showing 0.15" and the NAM would have a run showing 0.8", and everyone would laugh at it but defend it....until the euro has support, I consider it overamped, too far south....but when a superior model moves in one direction and an inferior model moves in the other, I am going to favor the superior model....i think the big problem is the NAM screws us, and everyone knows that is a possibility In the big forecasting soup.. yeah, I'd weight the 12z Euro over the 18z NAM no doubt. Outside a random run and the SREF mean which has only screwed us every storm since 09-10... the Euro still looks like an outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 My point and click now shows 1-3 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 In the big forecasting soup.. yeah, I'd weight the 12z Euro over the 18z NAM no doubt. Outside a random run and the SREF mean which has only screwed us every storm since 09-10... the Euro still looks like an outlier. The SREF has members giving us 600% of the NAM's output...lol....the euro is an outlier....maybe we should be taking a Canadian/GFS blend, which still isn't very good for us...maybe 1"+.... The euro could have had a goofy run that was initialized poorly or some other weird anomaly....it is rare for the euro to spike like that...it crawls to a solution...so I guess it is reasonable to think it might back off...but makes me wonder if its superior resolution is making it pick up on something the others aren't.....BTW....I fully expect the NAM to show 0.6" at 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 This is mine: Snow, mainly before 3am. Low around 17. Blustery, with a northeast wind 7 to 12 mph becoming northwest 19 to 24 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 37 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Pretty bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 RGEM says 2-4 for DC looking at the WxBell map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 DT says 2-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 The SREF has members giving us 600% of the NAM's output...lol....the euro is an outlier....maybe we should be taking a Canadian/GFS blend, which still isn't very good for us...maybe 1"+.... The euro could have had a goofy run that was initialized poorly or some other weird anomaly....it is rare for the euro to spike like that...it crawls to a solution...so I guess it is reasonable to think it might back off...but makes me wonder if its superior resolution is making it pick up on something the others aren't.....BTW....I fully expect the NAM to show 0.6" at 0z If i was a betting man i would think the 18Z GFS would show at least .2 and probably closer to .3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 DT says 2-4" His 2-4" area is way to broad otherwise it is a decent map although 8-12" in NY is unlikely. Boston is just Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 If i was a betting man i would think the 18Z GFS would show at least .2 and probably closer to .3 I think this is the best chance so far DC has a getting 2+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 it is hard to take the euro verbatim with the big shift and its bias to overamplify...it's just that it is so much better than the NAM with a complex northern stream situation, it is hard to dismiss....curious about the GFS at 18z,I definitely never favor the nam with winter storms as far as verbatim outputs at the surface go. I like 5h vort panels through 48 a lot though. 850 and surface maybe as clues for track but not much else because the globals outperform time and time again.I personally didn't see anything glaring with the nam run overall. A blend of the gfs and euro is totally the way to go. I too would like to think the euro run is a better resolved solution over previous because we are at pretty short leads now. GFS wasn't all that far off in some ways. Euro was just more juiced early on. It's a possible solution and so is the gfs late bloomer. It's a game of mm's to spare here where up north it's a game of miles to spare. I'm pretty curious about 18z as well. Any step towards the euro will feel good. Hold serve or get worse then I'll doubt the 12z euro even more than I do right now. Tonight's and even tomorrow's am runs are really important for us because we are on the fringe like always nowadays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 going back 10 years when DT gave a presentation at Marcus's house, I have never bought into this idea that the models are so much better at the upper level details and lag behind at the surface....that the surface has to be wrong because it isn't supported by the 500mb output...i'm more interested in how the models resolve the surface here...the GFS moved north last run at 500 mb and yet the surface features moved south ....as DTK and Chris have reiterated, the models aren't programmed to give solutions that aren't meteorologically possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 My call is for -1" to .5" for DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 My call is for -1" to .5" for DCA Wouldn't be so bad for qpf from the dry slot to the last minute burst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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