Ian Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 all, im in Scranton, PA for this one and expecting 6-10 roughly.....but im hoping beyond hope the DC crew breaks the 2 inch streak! If for some reason we don't and you do please let us know. Mart is looking forward to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Bob your sref map is 9z. I think 15z is tempered a bit but we'll see. QPF distribution looks a little tighter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Bob your sref map is 9z. I think 15z is tempered a bit but we'll see. QPF distribution looks a little tighter. I went back and checked. Yep, it was 9z. oops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Hey guys I am posting from Worcester, MA. I am expecting just 18 inches of powder and blizzard conditions -- no biggie up here LOL. Anyway just wanted to say I am rooting for DC and I think it is a good bet you'll get an inch! Have a good one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 canadian is wet but super warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Hey guys I am posting from Worcester, MA. I am expecting just 18 inches of powder and blizzard conditions -- no biggie up here LOL. Anyway just wanted to say I am rooting for DC and I think it is a good bet you'll get an inch! Have a good one! Lmao Phin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 canadian is wet but super warm Yeah but this chart is at sunset. Temperatures can crash just after. DC can get good accumulating snow sometime between 7 pm and 3 am Fri. At least this time, there isn't a high over Maine scooting out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 NAM has the stuff in the south more north and consolidated from 12Z, at least early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 lolnam....awful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 There won't be any purples. That's for sure. lol. It not as good as 12z but it's basically the same overall with minor differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Yay for the nam dusting! Boot it, everyone knows it's lying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 lolnam....awful It isn't better, FWIW. We didn't get NAM'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Nice, reliable American weather models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 lolnam....awful i wouldnt discount anything that screws us from snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 So now the gfs/nam is bearish and euro is bullish. lol. What a difference a day makes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 the NAM reminds me of December 10... we all know how that went Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Yay for the nam dusting! Boot it, everyone knows it's lying. The NAM shouldn't even qualify for happy hour. I'm rooting for the GooFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I don't thinnk it necessarily right such a solution is still not out of the realms of possibility. That's why in this kind of storm you play the snowfall conservatively. Too many ways to get screwed. Still nothing has changed from the earlier runs in terms of expectations. I still like dusting to 2 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 So now the gfs/nam is bearish and euro is bullish. lol. What a difference a day makes. Euro was a burp.. is my bet at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 There won't be any purples. That's for sure. lol. It not as good as 12z but it's basically the same overall with minor differences. i'd say more than minor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 So now the gfs/nam is bearish and euro is bullish. lol. What a difference a day makes. Hard to do anything but take a conservative blend given the model shifts. Glad the Euro came in wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 i'd say more than minor Yes and no. h5 looks basically the same. Same track of lp just south of us. Just not the same outcome with redevelopment and pulling it all together. No major changes imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I don't thinnk it necessarily right such a solution is still not out of the realms of possibility. That's why in this kind of storm you play the snowfall conservatively. Too many ways to get screwed. Still nothing has changed from the earlier runs in terms of expectations. I still like dusting to 2 inches. Here is my take... which should be taken with a grain of salt.. given my limited exp...The models have come to somewhat of a consensus zeroing in on a solution for the event. It looks as though the low pressure system tracks directly over the mid-atlantic keeping most of us in the marginal temperature range for the onset of the precipitation... kicking things off primarily as rain. The models then depict a surface low developing off of the coast of VA and the primary low transfers its energy directly over head. One good thing is that it does look like we will have a strong source of cold air (nice high) ushering in once that ocean low gets cranking, so anything that is left over moisture wise will fall as snow. We could see a comma head form somewhere, probably in the NE sections of our sub-forum area where there might be is a quick 2-4 inch thump.... confidence in that is pretty low though... cause frankly it just depends on where that sets up. Other than that, I am not expecting the other areas to really accumulate much given the day time temps on Thurs. We will see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Other than 12z, the NAM has pretty much been a dusting event with light precip overall. The consistency has been there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Euro was a burp.. is my bet at least. perhaps, but the NAM is not a good enough model to handle the synoptics of a complex setup...it is going in the completely opposite direction of the euro...I am dubious of the Euro solution, but Nam has nothing to do with it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Euro was a burp.. is my bet at least. Could easily be. But then last night was a burp from its previous run. Euro isn't all that it's been made to be. I trolled that last year. This year I don't even need to troll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Advisories issued to our north, watch up for Philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Other than 12z, the NAM has pretty much been a dusting event with light precip overall. The consistency has been there. 6z was the wettest run I believe....we just got QPF chopped in half.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 perhaps, but the NAM is not a good enough model to handle the synoptics of a complex setup...it is going in the completely opposite direction of the euro...I am dubious of the Euro solution, but Nam has nothing to do with it.... If you smooth out the outliers the overwhelming consensus is still for fairly light qpf for you and me at least. The Euro run had enough changes from prior ones not to take it as any significant sign IMO. It's certainly a possible solution but I'm not weighting it that heavily myself. The NAM run here more or less fits into larger consensus envelope whether it's right or wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Could easily be. But then last night was a burp from its previous run. Euro isn't all that it's been made to be. I trolled that last year. This year I don't even need to troll. If,we can't trust the euro before the day of the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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