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January 2/3 Event - Disco., Nowcasting, and Obs.


wxmeddler

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all, im in Scranton, PA for this one and expecting 6-10 roughly.....but im hoping beyond hope the DC crew breaks the 2 inch streak!

 

If for some reason we don't and you do please let us know. Mart is looking forward to it.

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I don't thinnk it necessarily right such a solution is still not out of the realms of possibility. That's why in this kind of storm you play the snowfall conservatively.  Too many ways to get screwed. Still nothing has changed from the earlier runs in terms of expectations.  I still like dusting to 2 inches. 

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I don't thinnk it necessarily right such a solution is still not out of the realms of possibility. That's why in this kind of storm you play the snowfall conservatively.  Too many ways to get screwed. Still nothing has changed from the earlier runs in terms of expectations.  I still like dusting to 2 inches. 

Here is my take... which should be taken with a grain of salt.. given my limited exp...The models have come to somewhat of a consensus zeroing in on a solution for the event.  It looks as though the low pressure system tracks directly over the mid-atlantic keeping most of us in the marginal temperature range for the onset of the precipitation... kicking things off primarily as rain.  The models then depict a surface low developing off of the coast of VA and the primary low transfers its energy directly over head.   One good thing is that it does look like we will have a strong source of cold air (nice high) ushering in once that ocean low gets cranking, so anything that is left over moisture wise will fall as snow.  We could see a comma head form somewhere, probably in the NE sections of our sub-forum area where there might be is a quick 2-4 inch thump.... confidence in that is pretty low though... cause frankly it just depends on where that sets up.  Other than that, I am not expecting the other areas to really accumulate much given the day time temps on Thurs.  We will see...

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Euro was a burp.. is my bet at least.

 

perhaps, but the NAM is not a good enough model to handle the synoptics of a  complex setup...it is going in the completely opposite direction of the euro...I am dubious of the Euro solution, but Nam has nothing to do with it....

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perhaps, but the NAM is not a good enough model to handle the synoptics of a  complex setup...it is going in the completely opposite direction of the euro...I am dubious of the Euro solution, but Nam has nothing to do with it....

 

If you smooth out the outliers the overwhelming consensus is still for fairly light qpf for you and me at least.  The Euro run had enough changes from prior ones not to take it as any significant sign IMO.  It's certainly a possible solution but I'm not weighting it that heavily myself.  The NAM run here more or less fits into larger consensus envelope whether it's right or wrong. 

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Could easily be. But then last night was a burp from its previous run. Euro isn't all that it's been made to be. I trolled that last year. This year I don't even need to troll.

If,we can't trust the euro before the day of the storm

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