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January 2/3 Event - Disco., Nowcasting, and Obs.


wxmeddler

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Precip distribution gives me a boost of confidence. It's not localized. Just orderly steps up from w-e. I think I'm around .35 or so. Nice to see .4 almost run i95.

 

yeah...I was going to say 0.4", but nice to see the 0.25" countour well to our southwest...still give us a chance for 1-2" even if we cut QPF in half...we do waste some on rain or sleet or nonaccumulating snow....

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yeah...I was going to say 0.4", but nice to see the 0.25" countour well to our southwest...still give us a chance for 1-2" even if we cut QPF in half...we do waste some on rain or sleet or nonaccumulating snow....

 

I suppose the euro is the best blend of development without massive temp issues. Even if we assume it happens too early on the model it's still a really good run. DC may get lucky here and break the streak. Prob not but you can't definitively say no at this point. 

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yeah...I was going to say 0.4", but nice to see the 0.25" countour well to our southwest...still give us a chance for 1-2" even if we cut QPF in half...we do waste some on rain or sleet or nonaccumulating snow....

 

this run is quite a bit different with the handling of the low/s than 0z. much more back-end heavy. not sure that change can't evaporate. the mid levels are really good i think it's just a matter of where the low develops and how quickly it forms.  i'm scared of anything that needs to develop overhead.

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I suppose the euro is the best blend of development without massive temp issues. Even if we assume it happens too early on the model it's still a really good run. DC may get lucky here and break the streak. Prob not but you can't definitively say no at this point

Does the ocean storm stay closer to the coast on this run?

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There is really no beating around the bush...It is a stellar run....biggest impediments are temps and how quickly we changeover/go below freezing...and the worry that it totally over amplifies

We've diecided to play things conservatively,  mybe too conservatively but there is time to nudge things up.   Friday morning will be nasty, with the wind and cold temps.  My guess is the 0.50 that the Euro has one me will end up being north and east of it's location.  That's where I fear the CWG map is really at risk.

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Does the ocean storm stay closer to the coast on this run?

 

Sort of but the trailing low to the sw of us is simply stronger and better organized than last nights run. That's our main show. And it's a sketchy setup no matter what the models show. Trends have been great though. 

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We've diecided to play things conservatively,  mybe too conservatively but there is time to nudge things up.   Friday morning will be nasty, with the wind and cold temps.  My guess is the 0.50 that the Euro has one me will end up being north and east of it's location.  That's where I fear the CWG map is really at risk.

 

This is my current guess for DC proper

 

T - 85%

0.1" - 75%

0.5"- 60%

1" - 50%

2" - 25%

3" - 15%

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this run is quite a bit different with the handling of the low/s than 0z. much more back-end heavy. not sure that change can't evaporate. the mid levels are really good i think it's just a matter of where the low develops and how quickly it forms.  i'm scared of anything that needs to develop overhead.

Me too,  I've been burned too many times.  I could see busts on both sides. 

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Sort of but the trailing low to the sw of us is simply stronger and better organized than last nights run. That's our main show. And it's a sketchy setup no matter what the models show. Trends have been great though. 

With a stronger trailing low, if it were to somehow get stronger, would that hasten a consolidation of the two storms?

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We've diecided to play things conservatively,  mybe too conservatively but there is time to nudge things up.   Friday morning will be nasty, with the wind and cold temps.  My guess is the 0.50 that the Euro has one me will end up being north and east of it's location.  That's where I fear the CWG map is really at risk.

LWX has your county's nipple poking into the green zone.

 

 

 

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With a stronger trailing low, if it were to somehow get stronger, would that hasten a consolidation of the two storms?

 

Not in a conventional sense. Yes, they will interact but the important thing is how it evolves overhead. It's a pretty strung out and complicated evolution. 

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Me too,  I've been burned too many times.  I could see busts on both sides. 

I feel like we do this exact dance a lot.. we're in, we're out, we trickle back in, then we miss. I wish it wouldn't get to my thinking.

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We've diecided to play things conservatively,  mybe too conservatively but there is time to nudge things up.   Friday morning will be nasty, with the wind and cold temps.  My guess is the 0.50 that the Euro has one me will end up being north and east of it's location.  That's where I fear the CWG map is really at risk.

Is the CWG forecast that post talking about a low/medium chance of scattered snow showers?

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I feel like we do this exact dance a lot.. we're in, we're out, we trickle back in, then we miss. I wish it wouldn't get to my thinking.

 

If I only had access to h5 vort panels I would look at hr 30-36 and expect at least some snow. Comparing 36 from 12z to 48 from 0z it's better. Sharper and more dig. I guess we can totally blow it here but there are some obvious signs of potential. 

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