snowdude Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 2-3" for all of extended DC metro except 1-2" for far southern burbs.. 3-5" for Balt and Northeast md Sorry for imby post but what about Salisbury eastern shore? I need to keep my viewers in the loop? haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 There is really no beating around the bush...It is a stellar run....biggest impediments are temps and how quickly we changeover/go below freezing...and the worry that it totally over amplifies What is the approx changeover time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 This is a vast improvement over last nights run and looks more like other guidance for sure. Starts as rain but the best rates are all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Precip distribution gives me a boost of confidence. It's not localized. Just orderly steps up from w-e. I think I'm around .35 or so. Nice to see .4 almost run i95. yeah...I was going to say 0.4", but nice to see the 0.25" countour well to our southwest...still give us a chance for 1-2" even if we cut QPF in half...we do waste some on rain or sleet or nonaccumulating snow.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Sorry for imby post but what about Salisbury eastern shore? I need to keep my viewers in the loop? haha rain to snow...2-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Sorry for imby post but what about Salisbury eastern shore? I need to keep my viewers in the loop? haha 1-2ish over sby. Steps up quick to the north though. 3-6 in central DE verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 yeah...I was going to say 0.4", but nice to see the 0.25" countour well to our southwest...still give us a chance for 1-2" even if we cut QPF in half...we do waste some on rain or sleet or nonaccumulating snow.... I suppose the euro is the best blend of development without massive temp issues. Even if we assume it happens too early on the model it's still a really good run. DC may get lucky here and break the streak. Prob not but you can't definitively say no at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 1-2ish over sby. Steps up quick to the north though. 3-6 in central DE verbatim. since the winter of 10/11, I've come to hate Dover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 This is a vast improvement over last nights run and looks more like other guidance for sure. Starts as rain but the best rates are all snow. europrecip.JPG If only that map was correct and the temps would cooperate here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 What is the approx changeover time? Maybe 7-9pm west to east? 850's would actually support snow @ 7pm. Suface 34-35ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 yeah...I was going to say 0.4", but nice to see the 0.25" countour well to our southwest...still give us a chance for 1-2" even if we cut QPF in half...we do waste some on rain or sleet or nonaccumulating snow.... this run is quite a bit different with the handling of the low/s than 0z. much more back-end heavy. not sure that change can't evaporate. the mid levels are really good i think it's just a matter of where the low develops and how quickly it forms. i'm scared of anything that needs to develop overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I suppose the euro is the best blend of development without massive temp issues. Even if we assume it happens too early on the model it's still a really good run. DC may get lucky here and break the streak. Prob not but you can't definitively say no at this point Does the ocean storm stay closer to the coast on this run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 There is really no beating around the bush...It is a stellar run....biggest impediments are temps and how quickly we changeover/go below freezing...and the worry that it totally over amplifies We've diecided to play things conservatively, mybe too conservatively but there is time to nudge things up. Friday morning will be nasty, with the wind and cold temps. My guess is the 0.50 that the Euro has one me will end up being north and east of it's location. That's where I fear the CWG map is really at risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 What is the approx changeover time? 6pm...it is probably mostly snow...we might just struggle in the 33-35 range at the beginning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Does the ocean storm stay closer to the coast on this run? Sort of but the trailing low to the sw of us is simply stronger and better organized than last nights run. That's our main show. And it's a sketchy setup no matter what the models show. Trends have been great though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 We've diecided to play things conservatively, mybe too conservatively but there is time to nudge things up. Friday morning will be nasty, with the wind and cold temps. My guess is the 0.50 that the Euro has one me will end up being north and east of it's location. That's where I fear the CWG map is really at risk. This is my current guess for DC proper T - 85% 0.1" - 75% 0.5"- 60% 1" - 50% 2" - 25% 3" - 15% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 this run is quite a bit different with the handling of the low/s than 0z. much more back-end heavy. not sure that change can't evaporate. the mid levels are really good i think it's just a matter of where the low develops and how quickly it forms. i'm scared of anything that needs to develop overhead. Me too, I've been burned too many times. I could see busts on both sides. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 If nothing else I've had fun watching this. You almost had to know with every model getting better at 500 we would see gradual improvement with the outcome. It may still improve more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 6pm...it is probably mostly snow...we might just struggle in the 33-35 range at the beginning Yea, 850's definitely support snow. We lose some to melting early on. And who knows if this is right anyways. No sense over analyzing surface. Cart before the horse. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Sort of but the trailing low to the sw of us is simply stronger and better organized than last nights run. That's our main show. And it's a sketchy setup no matter what the models show. Trends have been great though. With a stronger trailing low, if it were to somehow get stronger, would that hasten a consolidation of the two storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 This is my current guess for DC proper T - 85% 0.1" - 75% 0.5"- 60% 1" - 50% 2" - 25% 3" - 15% Your 1" pops are the same as Jason and mine for DCA. I think he went lower for my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 We've diecided to play things conservatively, mybe too conservatively but there is time to nudge things up. Friday morning will be nasty, with the wind and cold temps. My guess is the 0.50 that the Euro has one me will end up being north and east of it's location. That's where I fear the CWG map is really at risk. LWX has your county's nipple poking into the green zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 With a stronger trailing low, if it were to somehow get stronger, would that hasten a consolidation of the two storms? Not in a conventional sense. Yes, they will interact but the important thing is how it evolves overhead. It's a pretty strung out and complicated evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Me too, I've been burned too many times. I could see busts on both sides. I feel like we do this exact dance a lot.. we're in, we're out, we trickle back in, then we miss. I wish it wouldn't get to my thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 We've diecided to play things conservatively, mybe too conservatively but there is time to nudge things up. Friday morning will be nasty, with the wind and cold temps. My guess is the 0.50 that the Euro has one me will end up being north and east of it's location. That's where I fear the CWG map is really at risk. Is the CWG forecast that post talking about a low/medium chance of scattered snow showers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Is the CWG forecast that post talking about a low/medium chance of scattered snow showers? not out yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 not out yet OK, thanks. I figured I was missing something since that post was pretty generic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I feel like we do this exact dance a lot.. we're in, we're out, we trickle back in, then we miss. I wish it wouldn't get to my thinking. If I only had access to h5 vort panels I would look at hr 30-36 and expect at least some snow. Comparing 36 from 12z to 48 from 0z it's better. Sharper and more dig. I guess we can totally blow it here but there are some obvious signs of potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 funny how weatherbell considers snow/rain mix at 37 degrees to be 10:1 ratio accumulating snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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