DDweatherman Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Actual Canadian has come in with a better solution on its 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Justin Berk seems confident we get more snow than the models are advertising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 They were calling for 6-12" in Baltimore all along because they thought the Miller B would be far enough south to do that....there was sunshine through clouds in the early morning...looked like it would be a bust after about 2" had fallen the night before....then ominous dark clouds descended from that "weird" north/northeast direction and the fun was on....heavy heavy snow with very high winds probably in the 35-50 mph range. I recall Accuwx saying a couple days before on WCAO that it could be an inch or up to a foot apparently the 1 model they had back then was pretty hung ho but mets were pretty gun shy to go with it if memory serves What a crazy strom for our area. The evolution of the storm sounds like a once in a lifetime event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 hmm, maybe it was Andrews that got 5-6", because I do recall some location in the DCA area that did I was three years old, living in Camden, NJ. Apparently, I stepped into a drift that came up to the back porch and fell four feet down into the snow. Winters were better up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Ignoring the models, just this text forecast is something to savor: Thursday Night: Snow...mainly in the evening. Brisk with lows around 16. North winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph... Increasing to northwest 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph after midnight. Chance of snow 90 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Justin Berk seems confident we get more snow than the models are advertising. He's a dolt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 What a crazy strom for our area. The evolution of the storm sounds like a once in a lifetime event. Definitely one of the most memorable for me because of the dynamics and how it came together...certainly not the deepest, foot in Balto where I lived but noteworthy drifting...temps were cold once the snow got going too...fell into low 20s then teens later in the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 500-1000 mb thickness of 479 at Fargo on that map JI posted. They stay below zero for 100+ Hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Why is berk even mentioned in these threads? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 He's a dolt. He is a degreed Met, Cornell University. Not saying he is right or does not have a snow bias, but a dolt he is not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Why is berk even mentioned in these threads? we need to get some balance between him and you....now to figure out who's who! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 No need to personally attack anyone especially when they don't post here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 hmm, maybe it was Andrews that got 5-6", because I do recall some location in the DCA area that did Greenbelt got 5 or 6. At least that is what i measured. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Greenbelt got 5 or 6. At least that is what i measured. thx Wes, saved me! old? yes....crazy? not yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 He is a degreed Met, Cornell University. Not saying he is right or does not have a snow bias, but a dolt he is not.berk Is a very good met. Whether hes a snow hound like us or not he Does know His stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 All the models are depicting a snowfall gradient (NOT amounts--- just the gradient) very similar to 2/78 for I-95. That would have been a heart-breaker for DC to track, but Baltimore northeastward, and even DC's northern and northeastern suburbs experienced a completely different storm. And as you headed northeastward, each city got somewhat more than the previous city, ending with the Boston jackpot. Good catch, albeit with differences. Back then, we were in El nino with (-)NAO and currently were are nino-neutral and NAO neutral. Additionally, back then the Canadian high pressure was intensely stronger and there was a nice 500 mb ridge in the west. The general idea is good with BWI to Elkton doing markedly better than DCA and RI/east Massachusetts getting the pot of gold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 euro is quite a bit wetter...temp issues initially Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Euro definitely improved with moisture and lp going up the apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Euro coming in much improved as Matt said wrt precip. Coastal low a bit tucked in to the W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 euro is quite a bit wetter...temp issues initially I knew you'd come out your hole around 1 today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 euro is quite a bit wetter...temp issues initially great run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Sort of shocked to hear the Euro is better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 2-3" for all of extended DC metro except 1-2" for far southern burbs.. 3-5" for Balt and Northeast md Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 This is a good run. Guidance is converging. Elkton jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 This is a good run. Guidance is converging. Elkton jackpot. GFS now the outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 With the way it's strung out now it's nearly unforecastable. Just gotta watch how the pieces come together. Realy does seem nsw like Friday will have a hard time getting above 25 even at DCA and overnight low single digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Still nerve racking with the lp just to our south skipping by and developing. ULs look really good. Now the surface looks pretty good. Maybe we get lucky here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 There is really no beating around the bush...It is a stellar run....biggest impediments are temps and how quickly we changeover/go below freezing...and the worry that it totally over amplifies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxw Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Sort of shocked to hear the Euro is better. The Justin Berk storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 There is really no beating around the bush...It is a stellar run....biggest impediments are temps and how quickly we changeover/go below freezing...and the worry that it totally over amplifies Precip distribution gives me a boost of confidence. It's not localized. Just orderly steps up from w-e. I think I'm around .35 or so. Nice to see .4 almost run i95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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