Ian Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I need to stab my eyes after spending some time in the New England thread. This region isn't so bad. Happy new year! hmm, that might be sig quote worthy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I need to stab my eyes after spending some time in the New England thread. This region isn't so bad. Happy new year! It is a good thing we have not weenied to the level of the NE subforum. When is the NAM being upgraded?. Thanks for all your input. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 If dc wasn't too far n-s-e-w it would get more snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 this is such a tired logic -- as if the two aren't connected -- it's intellectually lazy and shows a complete lack of even a basic understanding of NWPAlright DTK, keeping it simple not everyone works at NCEP or the EMC. The tired logic and complete misunderstanding of models should make it easy for you to make a map and then I'll make one, and we can see who interprets your models better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 wxbell zoomage gfs_6hr_snow_acc_washdc_19.png I get about 100 flakes. Yay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I never looked at the 0z Euro till just now. It was pretty sucky for most of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Alright DTK, keeping it simple not everyone works at NCEP or the EMC. The tired logic and complete misunderstanding of models should make it easy for you to make a map and then I'll make one, and we can see who interprets your models better. Do it, show us your forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Alright DTK, keeping it simple not everyone works at NCEP or the EMC. The tired logic and complete misunderstanding of models should make it easy for you to make a map and then I'll make one, and we can see who interprets your models better. Why are you directing your response at me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Why are you directing your response at me? All you red-taggers look alike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Do it, show us your forecastAlright sounds good I'll throw something together just in paint since its not an official map. Be on later to post it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 The take here is at least the models aren't going backward. They are a little deeper, and a bit slower in the upper levels which doesn't hurt. The surface hasn't shown tremendous improvement but if you're talking about 0.1 vs 0.2 much of that isn't going to be known until it's over. If 1" to 2" makes you happy, I think there's still a good chance of that. Whatever trend there is is at least in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I never looked at the 0z Euro till just now. It was pretty sucky for most of SNE. Yea even Boston and the Cape got only like 5" and anyone west of there got like 2-4". That is like us getting a cartopper. Will gets 2" every time he has gas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Alright DTK, keeping it simple not everyone works at NCEP or the EMC. The tired logic and complete misunderstanding of models should make it easy for you to make a map and then I'll make one, and we can see who interprets your models better. Why are you directing your response at me? -- sorry dtk -- guess he just assumed you're the bad guy -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Why are you directing your response at me?Well if you assume I'm misinterpreting the models thats a false assumption. Its not a hunch, its basic meteorology principles, not model principle. You expect the slp to be near the best baroclinicity on the eastern end of your h5 vort. Its very sharp. I wish that the models that agree on sharp h5 and show good results now snow-wise werent the NAM, its hires, the SREF, and the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Well I am in Cecil County Colora nowhere near Elkton about 540 feet elevation NW up near PA Line and in December about 16 inches so I say bring another 8 thursday night. Yes Elkton does get the shaft many times I will get 6 or more inches and a thirty min drive down to Elkton a slushy inch......... I can agree with this. I live in Lancaster but my office is in Cecil County and have seen many instances that Pythium describes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Well if you assume I'm misinterpreting the models thats a false assumption. Its not a hunch, its basic meteorology principles, not model principle. You expect the slp to be near the best baroclinicity on the eastern end of your h5 vort. Its very sharp. I wish that the models that agree on sharp h5 and show good results now snow-wise werent the NAM, its hires, the SREF, and the RGEM. Psst, he didn't say that to you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I don't need to make a map. T-2 near the cities. Upside ne. Downside sw. 51% odds I get an inch and if I do then 100% odds i can slantstick 2-3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I don't need to make a map. T-2 near the cities. Upside ne. Downside sw. 51% odds I get an inch and if I do then 100% odds i can slantstick 2-3. Why is your stick always so slanty?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 It is a good thing we have not weenied to the level of the NE subforum. When is the NAM being upgraded?. Thanks for all your input. I would guess that it is slated for sometime this summer, though I haven't seen the implementation schedule/timeline. The two big changes they are going to be implementing are 1) Move to hybrid EnVar (similar to GFS) initialization using the GFS/EnKF perturbations. This should help with the large scale initialization 2) Physics. I don't know the details but they have been playing around with convection to address some pretty egregious biases. There are probably some changes to the microphysics and radiation as well, but I'd have to dig through the experimental change logs to find out (since I'm not in that branch). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Well if you assume I'm misinterpreting the models thats a false assumption. Its not a hunch, its basic meteorology principles, not model principle. You expect the slp to be near the best baroclinicity on the eastern end of your h5 vort. Its very sharp. I wish that the models that agree on sharp h5 and show good results now snow-wise werent the NAM, its hires, the SREF, and the RGEM. Reading is fundamental. Look at who posted the comment before you reply..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Well if you assume I'm misinterpreting the models thats a false assumption. Its not a hunch, its basic meteorology principles, not model principle. You expect the slp to be near the best baroclinicity on the eastern end of your h5 vort. Its very sharp. I wish that the models that agree on sharp h5 and show good results now snow-wise werent the NAM, its hires, the SREF, and the RGEM. where would you like the low to be? the slp is under the best DPVA -- i'm having trouble seeing any issues dynamically with this depiction? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 this is such a tired logic -- as if the two aren't connected -- it's intellectually lazy and shows a complete lack of even a basic understanding of NWP well if you NWP mets are so great, why are the models so bad? Sincerely, Concerned Taxpayer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Psst, he didn't say that to you It is all semantics DTK asked why he said that,and he was defending the GFS as all of us would our work. And UVV was explaining why he thought it was wrong, i don't see why this has blown up into an argument. Let 2 intelligent grown men discuss their differing thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnoelovertoo Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Hi Sandy - It's a graphical depiction of the latest short range forecast models, in this case showing modeled snowfall, with the black line representing the mean value. Here's BWI output...take it with a giant grain of salt, as accuracy and verification of the srefs do not always translate to the sensible weather. image.jpg Thank you so much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 It is all semantics DTK asked why he said that,and he was defending the GFS as all of us would our work. And UVV was explaining why he thought it was wrong, i don't see why this has blown up into an argument. Let 2 intelligent grown men discuss their differing thoughts. Don't be a dick I was trying to help the guy out by saying he was directing his response to the wrong person. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 -- sorry dtk -- guess he just assumed you're the bad guy --Well what I said to dtk could you please read then. Oops! My apologies to you dtk, hope you aren't offended neither are you chris I hope just getting my point across. Can't believe I didn't notice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Well if you assume I'm misinterpreting the models thats a false assumption. Its not a hunch, its basic meteorology principles, not model principle. You expect the slp to be near the best baroclinicity on the eastern end of your h5 vort. Its very sharp. I wish that the models that agree on sharp h5 and show good results now snow-wise werent the NAM, its hires, the SREF, and the RGEM. I really didn't want to get dragged into this, but you really believe that the model doesn't adhere to the meterological principles that you cite? Trust me, the model is based on fundamental governing equations and does not just place a surface low all willy nilly. Not everything can be boiled down to, or represented by, a simple conceptual model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 The take here is at least the models aren't going backward. They are a little deeper, and a bit slower in the upper levels which doesn't hurt. The surface hasn't shown tremendous improvement but if you're talking about 0.1 vs 0.2 much of that isn't going to be known until it's over. If 1" to 2" makes you happy, I think there's still a good chance of that. Whatever trend there is is at least in our favor. I will be happy with 2 followed by Friday's cold. That's good enough for me. Anything more will be a bonus and anything less will only be slightly disappointing. Like you said the models haven't gone backwards and still may improve a tick. It will be tough forecast as always come tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 If dc wasn't too far n-s-e-w it would get more snow. If DC wasn't so low in elevation it would get more snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I would guess that it is slated for sometime this summer, though I haven't seen the implementation schedule/timeline. The two big changes they are going to be implementing are 1) Move to hybrid EnVar (similar to GFS) initialization using the GFS/EnKF perturbations. This should help with the large scale initialization 2) Physics. I don't know the details but they have been playing around with convection to address some pretty egregious biases. There are probably some changes to the microphysics and radiation as well, but I'd have to dig through the experimental change logs to find out (since I'm not in that branch). Great so for weenies such as myself we can hopefully have an accurate model next winter. If the NAM steps up to the GFS level i will be on the computer 24/7 next winter so it may actually be bad . Thank for all the info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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