usedtobe Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 It's a fine line here for sure. I chose the bad side because I'm conditioned with this setup. Much had to do with the primary going north of course but also the energy ejecting out west simply wasn't digging enough to give me much hope. I saw the ensembles that looked good but remained bearish. I'm still pretty bearish honestly. The broken record statement of subtle changes of strength and placement early on makes large changes down the line. I suppose if runs keep digging that energy and keep the primary from going north of us I'll get more encouraged each run. Redevelopers are terrible on the nerves. A forecasters nightmare at our latitude most of the time. Unless we have a strong stable block (ala 2010) but we don't here. Just a well timed/placed 50/50 and good confluence. If this does verify and break the dc streak it will be a fluke in the books for sure. Good post, in this pattern it is real easy for the low to end up too far north. We need more than one good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The Sref is a bit of an improvement. Not enough I'm afraid. IAD has a mean of 1.55" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 DT might have to write a "why i was wrong post" like three times this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The Sref is a bit of an improvement. Not enough I'm afraid. IAD has a mean of 1.55" of snow. SREF is realiable 4 days out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Cannot quite believe what I just saw in the 12Z globals...mostly GFS and Euro! I'm honestly surprised the Euro "went big", that's a good 4-8" or so event in the immediate metro DC area, and a fair bit more farther north and west. Incredible. Such a tricky situation, this is probably the best we could have even imagined. Always nerve wracking with these types of developments (Miller "B"). Excited to see this but tempered by the fact that it could easily get whisked away in 12 hours or less. Boxing Day disappointment still looms kind of large. Let's hope this is more like Feb. 10, 2010, one of the times we can actually score with a Miller B! I guess the good thing is to see it developing this way now, about 3 days out and getting close to crunch time. EDIT: Funny, but when I typed "Miller B" in the parentheses, it made the "B" and the closing ")" into a smiley with glasses! Ha! Had to put it in quotes to avoid that!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 EC ensembles did shift south. Similar to a bit cooler than the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 DT might have to write a "why i was wrong post" like three times this week Or maybe not if things flip around again...let's not speak too soon here, just sayin'! ; ) EDIT: OK, well, maybe he still might have to say that if he's getting suckered into today's 12Z solutions and it doesn't pan out!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 JMA is on board...or still on board....for a major Noreaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The Sref is a bit of an improvement. Not enough I'm afraid. IAD has a mean of 1.55" of snow. Sref's r more accurate short range IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 EC ensembles did shift south. Similar to a bit cooler than the op. Interesting...where does its mean (and/or most of the members) place the developing low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 JMA is on board...or still on board....for a major Noreaster So...if this actually works out like this, do we owe credit to the UKMET? That's the one that has been harping most on this type of possibility I believe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 EC ensembles did shift south. Similar to a bit cooler than the op. Wow great news, thanks for the info Scott. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Interesting...where does its mean (and/or most of the members) place the developing low? I can't see the individual members, but pretty good consensus of a low moving off of Wallops Island area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 JMA is on board...or still on board....for a major Noreaster hmm if I remember correctly, JMA was on board the whole time, hmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 EC ensembles did shift south. Similar to a bit cooler than the op. Thank you Coastal. Please drop by when you see things important to us. These setups are scary as heck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Hovering near zero. Keep your tongue away from flagpoles. TRIPLE dog dare ya!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I can't see the individual members, but pretty good consensus of a low moving off of Wallops Island area. That's OK on not being able to see individual members...this gives us an idea though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 EC ensembles did shift south. Similar to a bit cooler than the op. saw that..nice track for us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Thank you Coastal. Please drop by when you see things important to us. These setups are scary as heck. yes..1000mb low right off wallops island..move gently e/ne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 saw that..nice track for us... You need to take 3 days away from this board more often if this storm comes to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 yes..1000mb low right off wallops island..move gently e/ne thanks matt. I don't think I can get the precip/snow totals for each member until 4:45 (might be 5:45). I'll post when they update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Numerical models are more accurate in the short range IMO There, fixed your post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 yes..1000mb low right off wallops island..move gently e/ne Pretty nice for a smoothed mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 SREF is realiable 4 days out? No, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 thanks matt. I don't think I can get the precip/snow totals for each member until 4:45 (might be 5:45). I'll post when they update. cool..the mean is about 0.4" QPF for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Correct me if I'm wrong, I honestly cannot remember all the details. Concerning this possible event being possibly a similar "pull the rug out" scenario as the Boxing Day 2010 storm, I believe it was really only the GFS and its ensembles that were gung-ho at the 11th hour for us to share in that event? I don't recall the Euro being on board with that. This case has a different flavor (I hope) in that the Euro is also moving to a favorable solution...as are the ensembles for both GFS and Euro. At least for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 hmm if I remember correctly, JMA was on board the whole time, hmm JMA shows HECS about 15 times per year, but yeah it wins on occassion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 There, fixed your post. ty ..appreciated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Correct me if I'm wrong, I honestly cannot remember all the details. Concerning this possible event being possibly a similar "pull the rug out" scenario as the Boxing Day 2010 storm, I believe it was really only the GFS and its ensembles that were gung-ho at the 11th hour for us to share in that event? I don't recall the Euro being on board with that. This case has a different flavor (I hope) in that the Euro is also moving to a favorable solution...as are the ensembles for both GFS and Euro. At least for now. the ridge is in much better position for us this time than boxing day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 cool..the mean is about 0.4" QPF for DC hmmm...mean for total precip or snow? 0z mean was somewhere between .8-1.0 for total precip. eta: I have a graph and not a map for mean precip. eta#2: I found the map and it shows .5 - .6. Not sure why there is such difference. Grain of salt on the graph. I'll just count the members that show accum snow and move on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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