DDweatherman Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 yikes RGEM; not all snow, but most of it is I'd like to think in this case the GFS is struggling a bit. The RGEM is not that impossible. Its QPF is hard to believe, but cut it by a third or half and it still makes many happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 wxbell zoomage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I'd like to think in this case the GFS is struggling a bit. The RGEM is not that impossible. Its QPF is hard to believe, but cut it by a third or half and it still makes many happy. lol the rgem might be worse than the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Some sne posters swear the rgem is a great model. I'm hugging it for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Some sne posters swear the rgem is a great model. I'm hugging it for now. I think it has its moments but it seems to go nuts over precip quite often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 lol the rgem might be worse than the NAM. Ian, you must have gotten a lot of jade this Christmas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Masco's map isn't too bad .. though I'd lean low still, not sure about the sw bend west of here either but climo. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bc500gbCcAAXMuI.jpg:large Not a bad map at all. I know for DC this storm sucks but for me the worst model gives me almost 2" and the Goofus gives me 3". I would lock this solution now and be happier than a pig in mud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 wxbell zoomage gfs_6hr_snow_acc_washdc_19.png Just enough to keep the snow drought going, but I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 sorry new here but could you explain that graph in laymans terms a little, i'm north of you a little north of Baltimore,,, much appreciated Sandy Hi Sandy - It's a graphical depiction of the latest short range forecast models, in this case showing modeled snowfall, with the black line representing the mean value. Here's BWI output...take it with a giant grain of salt, as accuracy and verification of the srefs do not always translate to the sensible weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 That Cecil county poster defending Elkton's snow climo won't be around today Well, to be fair, although he has 15" of snow this winter, he said he normally gets the shaft. And, yes, I'm only kidding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I'd like to think in this case the GFS is struggling a bit. The RGEM is not that impossible. Its QPF is hard to believe, but cut it by a third or half and it still makes many happy. Based on what? A hunch? A wish? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Ian, you must have gotten a lot of jade this Christmas?The RGEM kinda got the mitchnick storm pretty well with a NW cut off and did great with the 1/26/11 event. It has more good days compared to bad, while the NAM...well yea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Not a bad map at all. I know for DC this storm sucks but for me the worst model gives me almost 2" and the Goofus gives me 3". I would lock this solution now and be happier than a pig in mud. Yep, storms like this are a good example of how Baltimore tends to do a bit better than DC in a Miller B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 lol the rgem might be worse than the NAM. I am not saying it is right here at all, but you should know better than saying that. It is not great but it is much better than the NAM and better than the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Based on what? A hunch? A wish? Little bit of everything, but mostly wish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I still like the trend. GFS is incrementally better it's past few runs. Is it a stretch to think the EURO this afternoon will have a better look? All the area would need would be for the system to consolidate just a little quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Ian, you must have gotten a lot of jade this Christmas? No more than usual. I know you and a few others will hug the snowiest solution until it's partly cloudy so there's gotta be some balance. I've said all along these situations are often considerably better starting in the Balt to PHL corridor and even better NE of there. BUT I think you want as much juice as possible on the good models to feel good as losing a tenth or two (or more) liquid shouldn't be surprising in the end. These things often develop slower than modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Based on what? A hunch? A wish?Based on the h5 depiction. I'm not a big fan of what it does with the coastal low, and its relation to where that southern convection is. It also is dry to the west which could be the case but there just isn't a lot of agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I still like the trend. GFS is incrementally better it's past few runs. Is it a stretch to think the EURO this afternoon will have a better look? All the area would need would be for the system to consolidate just a little quicker. The Euro won't give anyone what they want. I can promise you that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Based on what? A hunch? A wish? I can almost always guarantee when you will comment . Happy New Years Daryl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Some sne posters swear the rgem is a great model. I'm hugging it for now. Tell them to try using it for this area. They'll change their mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 No more than usual. I know you and others will hug the snowiest solution until it's partly cloudy so there's gotta be some balance. I've said all along these situations are often considerably better starting in the Balt to PHL corridor and even better NE of there. BUT I think you want as much juice as possible on the good models to feel good as losing a tenth or two (or more) liquid shouldn't be surprising in the end. These things often develop slower than modeled. If the Euro would bump to .25-.35 across the area that would be huge and lend some credence to these other model solutions. We both know it won't do that, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Based on the h5 depiction. I'm not a big fan of what it does with the coastal low, and its relation to where that southern convection is. It also is dry to the west which could be the case but there just isn't a lot of agreement. this is such a tired logic -- as if the two aren't connected -- it's intellectually lazy and shows a complete lack of even a basic understanding of NWP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 9 times out of 10 when dc is banking on convoluted close in redevelopment in setups that even vaguely resemble this it happens further east regardless of "models gettin better" at short leads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Here's my map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Tell them to try using it for this area. They'll change their mind. I'm sure it works great there because every winter is like 09-10 was down here. That winter the RGEM was awesome for us but so was the CRAS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I can almost always guarantee when you will comment . Happy New Years Daryl. I need to stab my eyes after spending some time in the New England thread. This region isn't so bad. Happy new year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pythium Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Well I am in Cecil County Colora nowhere near Elkton about 540 feet elevation NW up near PA Line and in December about 16 inches so I say bring another 8 thursday night. Yes Elkton does get the shaft many times I will get 6 or more inches and a thirty min drive down to Elkton a slushy inch......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 If the Euro would bump to .25-.35 across the area that would be huge and lend some credence to these other model solutions. We both know it won't do that, though. I do think overall the "trends" (not sure there is such a thing) are better this morning. The Euro is probably still going to be like a desert though. If I lived where you do I'd probably feel decent about getting the ground whitened at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Here's my map: Excellent map and very likely to be spot on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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