nw baltimore wx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Oh no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Justin Berk always sees some issue with the models that will change things and never does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Why do people say forecasted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Justin Berk = TehWorst™ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Justin Berk always sees some issue with the models that will change things and never does. This. The system is always faster/slower than modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jums300 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 So...We are still in the game? I'll tell you something interesting. Now, I'm pretty sure that not all of you received decent accumulation on December 8th/9th, but a little bit before the storm, the NAM showed an amount of snow for my area that would have meant that everything falling would have been in the form of snow (that's not the problem here. I know.). But, it verified. Maybe some hope. Did Justin say that the NAM showed 4-6" for Baltimore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Here is more Berk's for ya. Justin Berk, Meteorologist Computer Models are not perfect! Here is this morning's NAM Model- It DID NOT Initialize Well! MISSING CURRENT RAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST *Left image: 6 Hour accumulated precipitation forecast for 1 PM from NAM- It shows it staying 'Dry' in southern Georgia *Right: Radar at 9:30 AM showing rain (confirmed by ground stations) in southern Georgia. This is the part of the complex system that will move north towards the Mid Atlantic. Basically there is more moisture available than is being factored in right now. Another reason I continue to not be confident in the models, overall they are having trouble with this storm. *We will have a moderate event Thursday afternoon-Friday morning! This NAM model is showing 4"-6" of snow for Baltimore's BWI despite current mishap. Hmmm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 So berk thinks the nam should snow more snow. Holy lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnoelovertoo Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Send Jim Cantore to the NE and they will for sure be dry slotted lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnoelovertoo Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Oh la la image.jpg sorry new here but could you explain that graph in laymans terms a little, i'm north of you a little north of Baltimore,,, much appreciated Sandy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 So berk thinks the nam should snow more snow. Holy lol. well you see it's a simple relationship -- any short-term model error directly translates into more snow for the region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 well you see it's a simple relationship -- any short-term model error directly translates into more snow for the regionI found his tweet. It's very awesome https://twitter.com/justinweather/status/418392026246176770 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnoelovertoo Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 So...We are still in the game? I'll tell you something interesting. Now, I'm pretty sure that not all of you received decent accumulation on December 8th/9th, but a little bit before the storm, the NAM showed an amount of snow for my area that would have meant that everything falling would have been in the form of snow (that's not the problem here. I know.). But, it verified. Maybe some hope. Did Justin say that the NAM showed 4-6" for Baltimore? No he hasn't given any totals yet, he says it's still a little too early to do that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I'm at work so don't have time to post but guys please go check out the RGEM. Best for the Baltimore crowd after the change to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnoelovertoo Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I found his tweet. It's very awesome https://twitter.com/justinweather/status/418392026246176770 And I do believe he likes the canadian and euro the best ( might be wrong) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 And I do believe he likes the canadian and euro the best ( might be wrong) It just doesn't make much sense. I don't think that precip even makes it to MD.. their snow comes from the additional low formation and a long-hanging sfc trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Ncar reanalysis will nail this storm Ian, the ne bullseye we talked about yesterday appears to have some legs. Weak skinny wobbly legs but they are there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 RGEM gets good snow back through DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Why do people say forecasted? Because they're looking at old forecast's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Ncar reanalysis will nail this storm Ian, the ne bullseye we talked about yesterday appears to have some legs. Weak skinny wobbly legs but they are there. Someone up there's definitely getting more than me unless something crazy happens. I guess if you cut the NAM in half it might be close.. though I'd really like to see the Euro show more than 0.1" across the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 The 4km NAM went from pretty much no snow at 00z to ~8 hours of snow for DC at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 The gfs looks about the same as 6z, I'm out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I found his tweet. It's very awesome https://twitter.com/justinweather/status/418392026246176770 Nothing like using Intellicast's overcharged radar to prove your point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Maybe an inch of snow on the GFS. More to the north and east, but nothing dramatic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Berk really is ridiculous...if he really wants to play that game the mornings GFS models the moisture better than the NAM in Georgia and has a worse solution...probably why he does not have a job right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Masco's map isn't too bad .. though I'd lean low still, not sure about the sw bend west of here either but climo. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bc500gbCcAAXMuI.jpg:large Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 yikes RGEM; not all snow, but most of it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 That Cecil county poster defending Elkton's snow climo won't be around today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 yikes RGEM; not all snow, but most of it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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