WinterWxLuvr Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 On 1/1/2014 at 2:14 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: Keeps getting better at 500. I'd think it'll have to be better at the surface this time. And it's not. LOL. I still think it's getting better. We need this thing to deepen a little and about 75 miles further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 NAM looks pretty solid to me for BWI and NE MD. Doesn't look like rain, either. Not cold powder but snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 On 1/1/2014 at 2:07 PM, Ji said: The nam is a hair more something Only East of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 better for MA for sure NE may not like it though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 On 1/1/2014 at 2:19 PM, PhineasC said: NAM looks pretty solid to me for BWI and NE MD. Doesn't look like rain, either. Not cold powder but snow. yeah, you do better than me, but east is "where it's at" as they say in Glen Burnie still getting snow at 42 hrs too per radar http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=042ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_042_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 .50 line basically at Baltimore. Nice run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 The NAM is a legit event for many of us, nice. But of course it's the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Nice precip hole over interior SNE now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 On 1/1/2014 at 2:28 PM, Fozz said: The NAM is a legit event for many of us, nice. But of course it's the NAM no worries. rational thinking goes out the window once you get blue'ed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 On 1/1/2014 at 2:32 PM, Ian said: no worries. rational thinking goes out the window once you get blue'ed. 6z RGEM wasn't too far off the NAM, and it was trending NAM's way from 0Z run all we have is hope, so why not hold on to it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 On 1/1/2014 at 2:27 PM, PhineasC said: .50 line basically at Baltimore. Nice run. Yeah but if you compare it with the 06Z it is a lot dryer with the overall precip field. It almost looks like that 12Z wants to develop a band that paints a finger of snow over NE MD and NJ... but then less to the north and east (NY/ CT). It doesn't really make sense. But I will take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 On 1/1/2014 at 2:19 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: And it's not. LOL. I still think it's getting better. We need this thing to deepen a little and about 75 miles further west. ? This run (and I'm not saying we should believe it, of course) is dramatically better at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 On 1/1/2014 at 2:34 PM, mitchnick said: 6z RGEM wasn't too far off the NAM, and it was trending NAM's way from 0Z run all we have is hope, so why not hold on to it... Well, I said all along NE MD had a much better chance than me but this run is bunk IMO. We've been doing this too long not to learn from past errors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 On 1/1/2014 at 2:35 PM, TowsonWeather said: ? This run (and I'm not saying we should believe it, of course) is dramatically better at the surface. He is way out west of the rest of us and needs a pretty dramatic turnaround at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Has anyone seen how ridiculous the 6z hi res NAM was? 980 bomb off the bench... Lulz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 On 1/1/2014 at 2:28 PM, PhineasC said: Nice precip hole over interior SNE now... did typhoon tippy sorta hint this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 On 1/1/2014 at 2:36 PM, Ian said: Well, I said all along NE MD had a much better chance than me but this run is bunk IMO. We've been doing this too long not to learn from past errors.It's just the latest model eye candy. I don't think anyone is gassing the snowblowers over it. More amusing to see it start to screw SNE than anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 On 1/1/2014 at 2:27 PM, PhineasC said: .50 line basically at Baltimore. Nice run. Better for you than me, the gradient is going to be tight, no matter the final solution. East will do better this time around for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 On 1/1/2014 at 2:36 PM, Ian said: Well, I said all along NE MD had a much better chance than me but this run is bunk IMO. We've been doing this too long not to learn from past errors. we're human? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 On 1/1/2014 at 2:35 PM, TowsonWeather said: ? This run (and I'm not saying we should believe it, of course) is dramatically better at the surface. I had only looked until 0z tomorrow. It did end up better especially for you guys. I guess I expected a better surface earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 On 1/1/2014 at 2:37 PM, mapgirl said: Better for you than me, the gradient is going to be tight, no matter the final solution. East will do better this time around for sureIf I do well you'll do well too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 On 1/1/2014 at 2:39 PM, PhineasC said: If I do well you'll do well too. I didn't say I'd do bad, but I think you'll do better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Good morning and happy new year all. So we still can track today between hockey and football. Just saw Justin Berk's new commentary. Not bad at all. Ok to copy and paste here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Just got a look at the 4k NAM snowmap in NYC thread, brings 6 inches through NE maryland just about to Baltimore.....just sayin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Oh la la Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 On 1/1/2014 at 2:15 PM, wxw said: usedtobe stuck a fork in it. time to move from the denial/anger to acceptance phase. We will get our turn this winter Ji I hadn't looked at this mornings nam. it would give us snow and any snow after arooudn midnight would stick at DCA so it is the best NAM run we've seen. I'm always hesitant to jump on the NAM developing a storm right over us as I've had some of my worst beatings jumping on such a solution. For that reason, I'd wait until the GFS and Euro come out. Last night's euro and it's ensembles were pretty bearish though 30 of the 50 members had some snow with the storm, only 4 had over 2 inches. For that reason, I'll hold off on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 On 1/1/2014 at 2:52 PM, usedtobe said: I hadn't looked at this mornings nam. it would give us snow and any snow after arooudn midnight would stick at DCA so it is the best NAM run we've seen. I'm always hesitant to jump on the NAM developing a storm right over us as I've had some of my worst beatings jumping on such a solution. For that reason, I'd wait until the GFS and Euro come out. Last night's euro and it's ensembles were pretty bearish though 30 of the 50 members had some snow with the storm, only 4 had over 2 inches. For that reason, I'll hold off on the NAM. What do you make of the SREFs getting progressively wetter from run to run? Seems like they did the same thing to us in last years debacle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 has wet NAM ever beat the dry Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 On 1/1/2014 at 2:55 PM, Ji said: has wet NAM ever beat the dry Euro?Has the wet nam ever beat anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxw Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 On 1/1/2014 at 2:49 PM, Scraff said: Good morning and happy new year all. So we still can track today between hockey and football. Just saw Justin Berk's new commentary. Not bad at all. Ok to copy and paste here? Very interesting actually. From his facebook page: "Here is a quick look at this morning's radar. I just want to highlight a few things: 1) The snow in eastern CO is farther south than models forecasted 2) Rain in southern GA is farther north than models forecasted 3) There is a large dry region (despite clouds) that needs to be squeezed out for the two systems to morph together. #3 is the issue with low snow totals in computer forecasts. What I have been seeing and pointing out are subtle things that could eventually be big players down the road Thursday for the storm to develop just a little sooner to impact the Mid Atlantic. A few hours and a hundred miles or so could make all the difference for us. *I am not saying a crippling storm, but a moderate event is still very possible. I will share a snow map ASAP. " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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