DDweatherman Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 The 500 mb EURO has super vorticity over Maryland at 72 hrs or so, much stronger than GFS, suggesting me get dry slotted hard and Cape Cod gets clobbered. Also at 72 hrs which is a bit after the modeled timeframe for snow in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 The 500 mb EURO has super vorticity over Maryland at 72 hrs or so, much stronger than GFS, suggesting me get dry slotted hard and Cape Cod gets clobbered. so the 500mb actually looks better? Is the low closer to coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Also at 72 hrs which is a bit after the modeled timeframe for snow in the area. It suggests the system will be dynamic overhead and the action at the surface will take place 300 miles to the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Not a cat family here and my dog is kinda b'dass when threatened by ravens fans. Better west steel boots or just bring a bag of bacon. On the analysis side the euro looks ok at the upper levels. Something isn't lining up. Or I'm too hammed up to see the height contours clearly. I'd suggest having someone who can forecast that has no vested interest, no emotional attachment to the output, to read the progs for ya. Hard to forecast when you want it to go one way or another, start seeing things that aren't there or not seeing things that are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 so the 500mb actually looks better? Is the low closer to coast Strong lift mechanism overhead MD and raging snow at the surface east Massachusetts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 stick with the ukmet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Never mind....blue means fooked on this map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Never mind....blue means fooked on this map Yes it means 1-2" for Leesburg, you are fooked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 NAM has the same amplified 500 mb vort burst, jucier too. MD/DC may be back in the 1"-3" with Elkton 2-5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 NAM has the same amplified 500 mb vort burst, jucier too. MD/DC may be back in the 1"-3" with Elkton 2-5. Is it a North west trend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 NAM has the same amplified 500 mb vort burst, jucier too. MD/DC may be back in the 1"-3" with Elkton 2-5. Are you in or out? MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 Up to do some nature and checked in quickly. 4km CONUS NAM is on crack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnoelovertoo Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 First post one here and I'm guessing this thread will stay dead like this until probably 5am ish? Can't handle Accuweather with all their NYC and NE hits all the time, if it was a hit on us (MIDATL) they would have 1 maybe 2 pages. Sorry for the rant, love you guys in here!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 GFS gives me a solid 2", can't complain about that. Was never expecting much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 This is probably a stupid comment and I know that there is never really a one-size fits all solution, but for events like this, if I see two things at this point in the game, it usually snows here. 1 - Snow Breaking out somewhere in the Ark-Missouri area. 2 - Tornado Watches or Severe Thunderstorm Warnings going up in Alabama - Florida. I am pretty sure at this point we have neither. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Anyone can give you a solid 2.....you need a solid 8-10 Could be the post of the year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Anyone can give you a solid 2.....you need a solid 8-10 Perv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 RGEM at 48 hrs pretty good and consistent with NAM it seems http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/3285_100.gif http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/06_054_R1_north@america_I_QPFTYPES_t6_048.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 GFS and NAM seem wetter. Both just barely miss DC with heavier precip. Just to the north and east does better. What a tough storm. Models can't handle it at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I'd suggest having someone who can forecast that has no vested interest, no emotional attachment to the output, to read the progs for ya. Hard to forecast when you want it to go one way or another, start seeing things that aren't there or not seeing things that are.Are you new here? I thought I've seen you around for years but your post makes me think differently. But I'll take your advice and get progs from dtwxrisk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 GFS and NAM seem wetter. Both just barely miss DC with heavier precip. Just to the north and east does better. What a tough storm. Models can't handle it at all. Seems reasonable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Are you new here? I thought I've seen you around for years but your post makes me think differently. But I'll take your advice and get progs from dtwxrisk. wx has nothing to do with it, I'm sure.....cat lover and you stepped over his "paws" with the comment re dogs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 fyi, the 9z srefs seriously bumbed qpf from 3z it has the .5" qpf 24-hour total line over BWI now; links for comparison below 3z: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=057ℑ=data%2Fsref%2F03%2Fsref_namer_057_precip_p24.gif&model=sref&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize= 9z: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fsref%2F09%2Fsref_namer_051_precip_p24.gif&model=sref&area=namer&storm=&cycle=09¶m=precip_p24&fhr=051&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 it looks to my uneducated eyes that the 6z placement of the storm is much closer to the coast than it was at 0 Z. I like that trend and possibly we haven't seen the final change in this storms evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Seems reasonable Except the nam is almost all rain, so is the euro or so it seemed based on its temps. GFS would probably give us an inch but its not nearly as cold as its previous runs. All in all, last night's runs were not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 fyi, the 9z srefs seriously bumbed qpf from 3z it has the .5" qpf 24-hour total line over BWI now; links for comparison below 3z: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=057ℑ=data%2Fsref%2F03%2Fsref_namer_057_precip_p24.gif&model=sref&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize= 9z: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fsref%2F09%2Fsref_namer_051_precip_p24.gif&model=sref&area=namer&storm=&cycle=09¶m=precip_p24&fhr=051&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 I'm with you Mitch. SREFS are significantly wetter than they were 12 hours ago. NAM about the same and GFS is wetter. Euro looked better at 500. No need to bail yet.And can I get some of the hires NAM please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 The nam is a hair more something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 The nam is a hair more something at 33 hrs, that low off the coast and the one in WVA look to want to combine over the water Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 The nam is a hair more something Keeps getting better at 500. I'd think it'll have to be better at the surface this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxw Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 The nam is a hair more something usedtobe stuck a fork in it. time to move from the denial/anger to acceptance phase. We will get our turn this winter Ji Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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