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January 2/3 Event - Disco., Nowcasting, and Obs.


wxmeddler

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The Northern STream and southeast ridge were too strong for this area. There's just no way to get a 700mb low to close off at this latitude with this kind of setup.    Yesterdays Euro was the only good run for us that somehow threaded the needle. Better luck next time.

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We still have hope, the Euro may show 3':

 

 

 

gfs_namer_042_1000_500_thick_s.gif

 

Folks may be tired of reading this but this 00z GFS at 42 hours is a smoking gun convective feedback low over the Gulf Stream, and it is effecting the panels after this time interval adversely for development where the better forcing really is.  

 

I hate to say this because people are going to throw stuff at me, but ...the NAM was a better run for theoretical Met.  Even the NAM will be changing imo.

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