snow. Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 You know, I think the problem is the NAM USED to be high caliber. And maybe it carries some goodwill? I dunno. But for the most part, you're right. The only reason we look at it and discuss it is because, well, it just happens to come out first and we're data freaks. it was NEVER high caliber...fortunately DTK and others have said they are doing a serious upgrade...and perhaps it will improve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 It deepens the low, going from 1009 to 999 mb in 12 hrs, as it crosses the mts. I don't remember seeing a low moving sw-ne crossing the mountains. Seems like they always jump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I don't expect the nam to be right but am interested in the 500 evolution. The euro and its ensembles being so bearish makes it likely that the GFS won't change too much. I think we need another run of the CRAS to supplement the NAM. That would be the ticket. might as well stay up for the euro...only 3 hours! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 That Norlun nails Wilmington and Philly on this run. Pray for a south trend since that is the southern Jackpot. Edit, Never mind,it's probably rain on the eastern end of that band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 it was NEVER high caliber...fortunately DTK and others have said they are doing a serious upgrade...and perhaps it will improve sure seemed better as the ETA...at least we all learned the biases of the ETA and could better adjust the NAM is all over the freakin' place and even when it gets it right you don't have the confidence in it to believe it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 This setup is not good for the nam. I wouldn't expect anything but outlier solutions. But it is still useful. Especially the first 24-48 hours at h5. The run laid a couple cookie crumbs that the globals may improve with the vort. Nothing massive but we don't need massive to get modest event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 The nam did well in the February 2010 storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 The nam did well in the February 2010 storm So did Foots Forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 The nam did well in the February 2010 storm it did well with all the storms that year it's apparently better with a raging NINO than anything else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 So did Foots Forecast Jack Frost Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 If Wes is intrigued so am I. Don't see rain from this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 it was NEVER high caliber...fortunately DTK and others have said they are doing a serious upgrade...and perhaps it will improve I think it was better than the GFS when it was first implemented but fell behind once the GFS resolution was increased a bit. It also seemed good because the NGM was bad in comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 If Wes is intrigued so am I. Don't see rain from this one. I'm interested but the euro has rain so I wouldn't rule it out. I doubt it stays rain and if the 500 looks as good as the NAM (it probably wont) then I would expect a snowier solution. Of course part of why the Euro is warm is it doesn't have much precip or vertical motion. I'm interested in the GFS to see if it stays the course or spits out .25 instead of .20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I think it was better than the GFS when it was first implemented but fell behind once the GFS resolution was increased a bit. It also seemed good because the NGM was bad in comparison. Thanks Wes. I thought that's how it was viewed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 So did Foots Forecast That winter made them famous, and now the weenies think they are Wes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Love you alll and Happy New Year but nothing worth reading, models covering all their bases, posters covering alll their pessimisms, and we are dealing with something that still has so much of the country to cross that anything can happen and as such is essentially not worth talking about right now. Burp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4US_0z/snow60.gif. Anyway, we still get screwed even on the most overdone clown map there is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I'm actually interested enough to stay up for the GFS. What little snow sticks may be like cast iron. A lot of places may be 5 to 10 deg. F on Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Nam did go from 0.03 to 0.13 to 0.23 at jyo from 12z to 18z to 0z...frankly 2"+ would be a win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Love you alll and Happy New Year but nothing worth reading, models covering all their bases, posters covering alll their pessimisms, and we are dealing with something that still has so much of the country to cross that anything can happen and as such is essentially not worth talking about right now. Burp.But how's water vapor look?...Kidding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 sure seemed better as the ETA...at least we all learned the biases of the ETA and could better adjust the NAM is all over the freakin' place and even when it gets it right you don't have the confidence in it to believe it the NAMs is out of its range beyond initialization. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 RGEM way more amped and west fwiw.... Looks like .3 qpf+ for most Edit: SREFs also appear wetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 GFS is no NAM... EDIT - it does have a primary over western VA, but it has a secondary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Not a ton of change thru 42 tho the GFS also has a low on the WV/VA border now which I don't think I've seen on it prior recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 GFS is no NAM... EDIT - it does have a primary over western VA, but it has a secondary gone next panel.. it might actually be worse than 18z trough still a smidge deeper but less precip at 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Goodnight, Wes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Goodnight, Wes Lol, this hobby blows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Pretty much the same as 18z minor differences Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 actually it is drier. congrats mapgirl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Horrible hobby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.