WinterWxLuvr Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Warmer too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 looks like the rain starts in the afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 looks like the rain starts in the afternoon sweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Warmer too problem is once the euro locks in it is like a rock...we know it will be dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 looks like the rain starts in the afternoon Proably but it looks a lot wetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Big difference. Slower, stronger, warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 problem is once the euro locks in it is like a rock...we know it will be dry Hard to say it's locked in when 24 hours ago it laid out a foot plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
attml Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Looks like the NAM, GFS and EURO forecast models are all coming together for heavy snow in our area!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 That might be the worst run yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Hard to say it's locked in when 24 hours ago it laid out a foot plus. I'd definitely favor the NAM here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 That might be the worst run yet. It's not even realistic...the NAM can't even get the idea of coastal redevelopment right at 42 hours out....they should just table the model until the upgrade...there is no point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I'd definitely favor the NAM here. Oh yeah. Seriously, it's not a stretch to say it isn't set in stone just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Hard to say it's locked in when 24 hours ago it laid out a foot plus. once it locks in it is a rock...24 hours ago we were 3+ days out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Oh yeah. Seriously, it's not a stretch to say it isn't set in stone just yet. dude..it isnt even a legitimate model...we look at it because it comes out at a good time and comes out 1st......it has no value at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Oooh....looks like a possible NAM rant incoming from Mart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 It's not even realistic...the NAM can't even get the idea of coastal redevelopment right at 42 hours out....they should just table the model until the upgrade...there is no point It is strange how it plows that weak low right through the apps. It did look better at 500 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 That might be the worst run yet. The low that far north in Virginia continues to look weird. If the euro somehow gets such an amplified look it would be interesting to see what it does with the low. This run will have folks to our north really happy. I'm with Matt, the low with that 500 should be farther south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Oh yeah. Seriously, it's not a stretch to say it isn't set in stone just yet. euro and gfs are pretty close to eachother save some details. maybe the drunken nam is on to something or maybe they'll stay close to what we saw earlier and the nam will show a hecs at 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 dude..it isnt even a legitimate model...we look at it because it comes out at a good time and comes out 1st......it has no value at all I wasn't serious Matt. I did want to see how it handled the sw. At least it may be showing the potential for further changes in the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Oooh....looks like a possible NAM rant incoming from Mart. It is a joke...anyone who doesnt understand that is incorrigible....it isnt even remotely close to the varsity models in terms of evolution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 The low that far north in Virginia continues to look weird. If the euro somehow gets such an amplified look it would be interesting to see what it does with the low. This run will have folks to our north really happy. I'm with Matt, the low with that 500 should be farther south and east. NAM definitely NYC weenies model of choice tho how surprising would that be anyway.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I'm actually interested enough to stay up for the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 The low that far north in Virginia continues to look weird. If the euro somehow gets such an amplified look it would be interesting to see what it does with the low. This run will have folks to our north really happy. I'm with Matt, the low with that 500 should be farther south and east. That's all I was trying to say. The slower more amped look at 500 was encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I'm actually interested enough to stay up for the GFS. sucker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 sucker could be all the new data.. we finally found our storm where it matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 It is a joke...anyone who doesnt understand that is incorrigible....it isnt even remotely close to the varsity models in terms of evolution You know, I think the problem is the NAM USED to be high caliber. And maybe it carries some goodwill? I dunno. But for the most part, you're right. The only reason we look at it and discuss it is because, well, it just happens to come out first and we're data freaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I'm encouraged that Wes is encouraged. Might as well stay up dude, it's New Years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 It is strange how it plows that weak low right through the apps. It did look better at 500 though. It deepens the low, going from 1009 to 999 mb in 12 hrs, as it crosses the mts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 sucker I don't expect the nam to be right but am interested in the 500 evolution. The euro and its ensembles being so bearish makes it likely that the GFS won't change too much. I think we need another run of the CRAS to supplement the NAM. That would be the ticket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I don't know if it's always like this because I usually don't look this hard, but this thing seems really sensitive to any slight change at 500. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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