Ian Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I dont think any of us thought this would be more than our usual minor event...models create these expectations that make us irrational... I think there were quite a few who thought otherwise. I mean, it's fine... we all want it to snow. But if you watch the progression of the idea of this storm very few were thinking cartopper was among our best options other than for continuity. "Best shot at 2"+ since 09-10... or last time we failed to get 2" we saw in a semi ok but mostly crappy pattern" (it could still fluke.. I'm trying to help it do so by dissing it early). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I think there were quite a few who thought otherwise. I mean, it's fine... we all want it to snow. But if you watch the progression of the idea of this storm very few were thinking cartopper was among our best options other than for continuity. "Best shot at 2"+ since 09-10... or last time we failed to get 2" we saw in a semi ok but mostly crappy pattern" (it could still fluke.. I'm trying to help it do so by dissing it early). I think somehow collectively we've decided the models are good from like 144 hours...which is both untrue, and especially untrue in northern stream dominated events...I dont remember anyone giving the models so much credence at 6 days except in the last couple years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I think somehow collectively we've decided the models are good from like 144 hours...which is both untrue, and especially untrue in northern stream dominated events...I dont remember anyone giving the models so much credence at 6 days except in the last couple years Yes, that might be the reason. Tracking and believing even out to day 10 is the norm now for every storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Yes, that might be the reason. Tracking and believing even out to day 10 is the norm now for every storm. everyone has access to models now too...it isn't like the old days (or current days if you are an amwx model subscriber) when the euro ran once a day in 24 hour increments and we tried to deduce something from the low placement.....DT and others don't help...saying he spotted a January 3rd threat on December 20th mostly based on models showing something is not good meteorology imo... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Yes, that might be the reason. Tracking and believing even out to day 10 is the norm now for every storm. Desperate times desperate measures. Plus, if the only threat on the horizon is day 10, what else are we going to do? Track torches?....wait a minute... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 21z SREF has the 0.25" contour running from western Balt burbs straight through DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 21z SREF has the 0.25" contour running from western Balt burbs straight through DCA Now we're talking. 20:1 ratios should get the job done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 everyone has access to models now too...it isn't like the old days (or current days if you are an amwx model subscriber) when the euro ran once a day in 24 hour increments and we tried to deduce something from the low placement.....DT and others don't help...saying he spotted a January 3rd threat on December 20th mostly based on models showing something is not good meteorology imo... Yes and access to local hi res model data with fancy graphics... plus all the derived products. I think it almost makes it feel like you've got more knowledge than you do. The next massive disaster will be when someone outdoes wundermap with interfacing models to a zoomable level of neighborhood v neighborhood. I agree completely on the latter part.. There is some value to sniffing out a pattern but that whole idea is intertwined with me hating naming storms here after people who first saw it on the 18z GFS at 384 hours or cheered on the wave at 288 which then disappeared for a week to return close in and miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 my favorite short range model nobody posted the 18z 48 hr map, so here it is fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Now we're talking. 20:1 ratios should get the job done The ops seem in fairly good agreement at this point. I'm not sure how much there is value added using the ensembles in any fashion too heavily. I guess if there is some marked shift to the NAM it might be worth something or the NAM being dumb. Also, for me to feel good about this storm I want to see the .75" contour along I-95 by the end of tomorrow's 12z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 The ops seem in fairly good agreement at this point. I'm not sure how much there is value added using the ensembles in any fashion too heavily. I guess if there is some marked shift to the NAM it might be worth something or the NAM being dumb. Also, for me to feel good about this storm I want to see the .75" contour along I-95 by the end of tomorrow's 12z suite. you dont think we are good for like one band to develop to our west and swing through with 3-4 hours of snow? I guess that is too much to ask Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 The ops seem in fairly good agreement at this point. I'm not sure how much there is value added using the ensembles in any fashion too heavily. I guess if there is some marked shift to the NAM it might be worth something or the NAM being dumb. Also, for me to feel good about this storm I want to see the .75" contour along I-95 by the end of tomorrow's 12z suite. Say what you want but your pbp and extrapolations earlier tell the real story. You're all in and you can come out now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 No offense, but you don't present a very convincing argument. Pretty convincing according to this map. And Its pretty accurate. I lived in Westminster and 35 inches was about average, and now I am 10 miles north of Denton, and the average for Denton is in fact 18.5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 you dont think we are good for like one band to develop to our west and swing through with 3-4 hours of snow? I guess that is too much to ask I'm kinda expecting that. How heavy and how much is a wildcard. But enough guidance points to just what u said to look forward to the possibility. If you can't enjoy each and every time snow falls from the sky then you shouldnt be here. Well, except for Ji of course. He's here for other reasons that any sane person won't understand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 In response to CAPE, I was only kidding and I'm actually well-versed in just about any maryland locale's annual snowfall. I was just being a Ravensrule joke. In fact, I think Elkton's climo is such that their wsw criteria is actually less than ours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 21z SREF has the 0.25" contour running from western Balt burbs straight through DCA They are definitely a bit wetter. All along the coast as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 In response to CAPE, I was only kidding and I'm actually well-versed in just about any maryland locale's annual snowfall. I was just being a Ravensrule joke. In fact, I think Elkton's climo is such that their wsw criteria is actually less than ours. Lol gotcha. And btw, Elkton's criteria for WSW is different because Mount Holly is the forecast office for that area, and the criteria is 4 or more inches for all of their Delmarva zones into SNJ. Elkton does seem on average to get less snow than surrounding areas for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 you dont think we are good for like one band to develop to our west and swing through with 3-4 hours of snow? I guess that is too much to ask That's probably doable.. Not sure I'd bank on it. I wonder if the models have fully resolved the dual or stretched out nature of the low at this pt. That seems like a possible wildcard still. I'm very cautious about getting excited about apps crossing snow that is way removed from the main surface low but maybe I just haven't seen it happen enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Garrett Bastardi nailed this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 They are definitely a bit wetter. All along the coast as well. I rarely look at them because I personally haven't found much value above what I already waste too much time looking at. Are they wetter because there are a couple big outliers or is the overall look of the group better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 NAM could end a little better. Hard to say for sure but it's a little slower again, at least through 33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I rarely look at them because I personally haven't found much value above what I already waste too much time looking at. Are they wetter because there are a couple big outliers or is the overall look of the group better? Don't know Bob. Only saw the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I rarely look at them because I personally haven't found much value above what I already waste too much time looking at. Are they wetter because there are a couple big outliers or is the overall look of the group better? Looks like they're better across the board on wxbell though still mainly light with a few heavy ones skewing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 NAM could end a little better. Hard to say for sure but it's a little slower again, at least through 33. Have to ask, are we still dryslotted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Looks like they're better across the board on wxbell though still mainly light with a few heavy ones skewing it. Good enough. If the group is slightly improved its not a negative sign. Sure would like some op runs to show a less strung out solution with a better precip shield for us.Prob too much to ask. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Is it really a dry slot or a precipitation hole between storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Have to ask, are we still dryslotted? Haven't looked at the surface. The 500 sure makes me think it's going to be better. Famous last words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Good enough. If the group is slightly improved its not a negative sign. Sure would like some op runs to show a less strung out solution with a better precip shield for us.Prob too much to ask. I forgot how slow the NAM runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Much healthier at 45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Is it really a dry slot or a precipitation hole between storms? Kinda the same thing. Look at 700mb rh panels. They show it pretty clearly with all storms when there's a gap between precip from surface and ul features. Easy to pick out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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