Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I dunno if we'll get whiffed per se but a precip shield coming in out of the west fairly far removed from a surface low... eh. We'll need some luck. I think there is probably still more room for movement here than some situations but while the vort location pass is decent the orientation of the trough axis etc seems less than ideal. Probably not meaningful at this stage but euro ens members backed off. Most show snow but maybe 7 show 2"+ dca and the mean is .8". I'm huggin #49 though. I'm sure you're all over #51. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Probably not meaningful at this stage but euro ens members backed off. Most show snow but maybe 7 show 2"+ dca and the mean is .8". I'm huggin #49 though. I'm sure you're all over #51. Out of pure curiosity, what does #49 say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I know people are anti TWC, Accuweather, etc, but Bernie Rayno is a fantastic forecaster. Go watch his video from 5:00. He still thinks 1-3 DC/Balt. We can hope... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Out of pure curiosity, what does #49 say? It's says that it rides the short bus. 6"+ of meteorlogically impossible snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 You never driven past the sign for it off I 95 when going to CT? Last exit in Maryland Exit 109. elevation of Eklton is a big 30 feet. Major lift goes on there I guess. Capture.JPG Its also the halfway point between Baltimore and Philly. The good old center of ceciltucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I definitely don't inflate my totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Its also the halfway point between Baltimore and Philly. The good old center of ceciltucky. Yep, you need to post more too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Gfs ens still leaves a candle burning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Gfs ens still leaves a candle burning. Burning down the last weenie hopes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxw Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 FWIW DT encouraged by 18z GFS ensembles for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 FWIW DT encouraged by 18z GFS ensembles for DC Who wouldn't be, this looks like a nice trend. Lets keep it up. DT's map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 FWIW DT encouraged by 18z GFS ensembles for DC 4 of those members are huge hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 FWIW DT encouraged by 18z GFS ensembles for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bari Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 forecasting.gif haha, get dunk'ed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 One thing to remember about the GEFS ensembles and ens mean at these time ranges is they have lower resolution which tends to spread precip out some. I note that the 15Z SERF ens mean for snow was about 0.09. It may be wrong but has higher resolution than the GEFS. It also weights the NAM some which may or may not be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 One thing to remember about the GEFS ensembles and ens mean at these time ranges is they have lower resolution which tends to spread precip out some. I note that the 15Z SERF ens mean for snow was about 0.09. It may be wrong but has higher resolution than the GEFS. It also weights the NAM some which may or may not be good. I remember you explaining that to me in the past. My comment wasn't because of the precip but a better low placement on a few of the members. Probably nothing I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 If there are any more changes that are significant ...the 00z run is the run as players on field Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 This the time where I say 0z will be telling...and it actually will be... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 LULZ to Ian's pic post. Funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 This the time where I say 0z will be telling...and it actually will be... I don't think a shift in the GFS to bring .25-.50 to DCA is that crazy. It could also hold or look worse. But if it shifted a little better it wouldn't be shocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I don't think a shift in the GFS to bring .25-.50 to DCA is that crazy. It could also hold or look worse. But if it shifted a little better it wouldn't be shocking. I agree with you. I also agree with Ji and Randy that the next runs should have all the data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowpocalypse Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I am from Elkton and I can attest that we do not do as well as you all think. We normally get shafted while areas north,east,south and west of us get thumped. we did do very well on December 8th. We picked up like 8-10 in and then on the 10th about 2-3in. Even had about half an inch on Christmas eve. Flurries today for about an hour also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I am from Elkton and I can attest that we do not do as well as you all think. We normally get shafted while areas north,east,south and west of us get thumped. we did do very well on December 8th. We picked up like 8-10 in and then on the 10th about 2-3in. Even had about half an inch on Christmas eve. Flurries today for about an hour also. No offense, but you don't present a very convincing argument. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I agree with you. I also agree with Ji and Randy that the next runs should have all the data. Seems pretty low probability. It's more likely to trend drier than wetter from here IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowpocalypse Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 No offense, but you don't present a very convincing argument. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/storms/12082013.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 With Miller Bs, I don't even pay attention QPF output if we are more than 50 miles outside the 0.5" area. If yer outside that, yer getting fringed, and it's usually much less QPF than any model spits out, if u get anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 No offense, but you don't present a very convincing argument.Heh, that's pretty funny right there...lolOn topic...I haven't seen much to encourage me to think we jump to .3+ widespread around the cities. Maybe .25 if we have a + trend. If it happens tonight it will be a pretty big shift in guidance. It would have to include the precip shield to the se associated with the low off nc getting to us. It's kinda close now and will make weenies cry in their radar loops but the precip hole is modeled all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I dont think any of us thought this would be more than our usual minor event...models create these expectations that make us irrational... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Heh, that's pretty funny right there...lol On topic...I haven't seen much to encourage me to think we jump to .3+ widespread around the cities. Maybe .25. If it happens tonight it will be a pretty big shift in guidance. It would have to include the precip shield to the se associated with the low off nc getting to us. It's kinda close now and will make weenies cry in their radar loops but the precip hole is modeled all over the place. I won't buy into any solution until late tomorrow. Energy rounding a trough and jumping to the coast doesn't work out often here, especially wo blocking, but the fact that this has been modeled all over the place makes me think the timing isn't that far off from something better than we expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I dont think any of us thought this would be more than our usual minor event...models create these expectations that make us irrational... JF lol Guilty! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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