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January 2/3 Event - Disco., Nowcasting, and Obs.


wxmeddler

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from DT...

 

***ALERT *** 12Z MONDAY operational EURO MODEL COMES SOUTH....

( why is i it every time I bail on a East coast winter storm my ORIGINAL forecast comes back big time ???)

BRINGS HEAVY SNOW INTO DCA BWI CENTRAL MD ...... far SOUTHERN PA ( including Philly) NORTHWEST THIRD OF VA...

...12 hrs ago the euro had all rain or MOSTLY all rain for those areas...

central and eastern PA North NJ NYC most of NY state all of central and southern New England (including Long Island) GETS CRUSHED 12-16" of snow

DCA BWI PHL Northern del 6-9" central and western MD 8-12" same for nw 25% of VA


precip will start as rain over northern va md del ... BUT if the south trend continues maybe not .... in which case Northern VA DCA BWI snow totals go up

SURFACE MAP look a little like JAn 1996
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my biggest worry is models hone in, we get a warning and then we get dryslotted

 

I'm not sure that worry can go away until after we need to shovel. I'm thrilled with the latest trends with digging the energy deeper out west (this actually happens at short leads so it's comforting) but history says to never go all in here until halfway through game time.

 

What kind of ens maps do you get? I just get the basic means. I'm looking forward to the ens splatter precip chart though. 

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euro ensembles out around 3;30

Been scurrying all morning righting an article.  I still think there are two possible scenarios, one good and one not. ALso looks cold behind each of the storms.  I don't buy the Euro below zero at DC stuff as it has been running cold especially with snow cover or so I've been told. 

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Been scurrying all morning righting an article.  I still think there are two possible scenarios, one good and one not. ALso looks cold behind each of the storms.  I don't buy the Euro below zero at DC stuff as it has been running cold especially with snow cover or so I've been told. 

 

Looking very forward to this article. I'm going to read it 3 times and only remember the good scenario. 

 

I take it that you are bit encouraged here? With disclaimers of course?

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Been scurrying all morning righting an article.  I still think there are two possible scenarios, one good and one not. ALso looks cold behind each of the storms.  I don't buy the Euro below zero at DC stuff as it has been running cold especially with snow cover or so I've been told. 

cant wait to read it

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Looking very forward to this article. I'm going to read it 3 times and only remember the good scenario. 

 

I take it that you are bit encouraged here? With disclaimers of course?

Of course,  Still lots could go wrong, I had pretty much given up on it based on the SREF esnembles, that will teach me to rely more on the GEFS ones.  I doubt we'll know for sure for another 24 hours.

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Of course,  Still lost could go wrong, I had pretty much given up on it based on the SREF esnembles, that will teach me to rely more on the GEFS ones.  I doubt we'll know for sure for another 24 hours.

 

It's a fine line here for sure. I chose the bad side because I'm conditioned with this setup. Much had to do with the primary going north of course but also the energy ejecting out west simply wasn't digging enough to give me much hope. I saw the ensembles that looked good but remained bearish. I'm still pretty bearish honestly. The broken record statement of subtle changes of strength and placement early on makes large changes down the line. I suppose if runs keep digging that energy and keep the primary from going north of us I'll get more encouraged each run. 

 

Redevelopers are terrible on the nerves. A forecasters nightmare at our latitude most of the time. Unless we have a strong stable block (ala 2010) but we don't here. Just a well timed/placed 50/50 and good confluence. If this does verify and break the dc streak it will be a fluke in the books for sure. 

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