wxmeddler Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 kgai please? Likely same as Dulles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Ji-OKV? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 so it may actually be all snow out here, wet snow for the most part I am thinking until near the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 -14 in my back yard on January 7 at 7am? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Likely same as Dulles. your fan club increased by 1 This whole thing still reeks of peril. I'm still kinda bearish overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 kgai please? *** Station Code KGAI Not Valid *** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 *** Station Code KGAI Not Valid *** Your fan club just decreased by 1 Am I the only one not feeling all that giddy? Maybe tomorrow I can come to the reality that it does snow near the cities. Or remain in the reality that it doesn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 -14 in my back yard on January 7 at 7am? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Your fan club just decreased by 1 Am I the only one not feeling all that giddy? Maybe tomorrow I can come to the reality that it does snow near the cities. Or remain in the reality that it doesn't. Nope. No way I'm standing on the rug either. If the models look like this on Wed night, then maybe.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Nope. No way I'm standing on the rug either. If the models look like this on Wed night, then maybe.... im likeing the euro and gfs runs but I have a cautious eye, cause it can change, tonites runs will be big Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 heres the map posted by jim cantore it has snow ratios figured in....( WSI)....( snow ratio algorithim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Those ensembles must be smarter than we think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I just need 3 inches. That is all it would take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 DT folding again! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I just need 3 inches. That is all it would take. I'd give anything just to have 3 inches too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 euro ensembles out around 3;30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 euro ensembles out around 3;30 I predict we will be very happy with the results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 DT folding again! LOL I came hear to comment that D: from https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk ( why is i it every time I bail on a East coast winter storm my ORIGINAL forecast comes back big time ???) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 my biggest worry is models hone in, we get a warning and then we get dryslotted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 from DT... ***ALERT *** 12Z MONDAY operational EURO MODEL COMES SOUTH....( why is i it every time I bail on a East coast winter storm my ORIGINAL forecast comes back big time ???)BRINGS HEAVY SNOW INTO DCA BWI CENTRAL MD ...... far SOUTHERN PA ( including Philly) NORTHWEST THIRD OF VA......12 hrs ago the euro had all rain or MOSTLY all rain for those areas...central and eastern PA North NJ NYC most of NY state all of central and southern New England (including Long Island) GETS CRUSHED 12-16" of snowDCA BWI PHL Northern del 6-9" central and western MD 8-12" same for nw 25% of VAprecip will start as rain over northern va md del ... BUT if the south trend continues maybe not .... in which case Northern VA DCA BWI snow totals go upSURFACE MAP look a little like JAn 1996 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 my biggest worry is models hone in, we get a warning and then we get dryslotted I'm not sure that worry can go away until after we need to shovel. I'm thrilled with the latest trends with digging the energy deeper out west (this actually happens at short leads so it's comforting) but history says to never go all in here until halfway through game time. What kind of ens maps do you get? I just get the basic means. I'm looking forward to the ens splatter precip chart though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 euro ensembles out around 3;30 Been scurrying all morning righting an article. I still think there are two possible scenarios, one good and one not. ALso looks cold behind each of the storms. I don't buy the Euro below zero at DC stuff as it has been running cold especially with snow cover or so I've been told. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Been scurrying all morning righting an article. I still think there are two possible scenarios, one good and one not. ALso looks cold behind each of the storms. I don't buy the Euro below zero at DC stuff as it has been running cold especially with snow cover or so I've been told. Looking very forward to this article. I'm going to read it 3 times and only remember the good scenario. I take it that you are bit encouraged here? With disclaimers of course? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Been scurrying all morning righting an article. I still think there are two possible scenarios, one good and one not. ALso looks cold behind each of the storms. I don't buy the Euro below zero at DC stuff as it has been running cold especially with snow cover or so I've been told. cant wait to read it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Looking very forward to this article. I'm going to read it 3 times and only remember the good scenario. I take it that you are bit encouraged here? With disclaimers of course? Of course, Still lots could go wrong, I had pretty much given up on it based on the SREF esnembles, that will teach me to rely more on the GEFS ones. I doubt we'll know for sure for another 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Wes- How much confidence will you put into todays EURO 3:30pm ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Found this on Twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Wes- How much confidence will you put into todays EURO 3:30pm ensembles? If they agree with the Euro, pretty much but I still wouldn't yet jump to a categorical forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Of course, Still lost could go wrong, I had pretty much given up on it based on the SREF esnembles, that will teach me to rely more on the GEFS ones. I doubt we'll know for sure for another 24 hours. It's a fine line here for sure. I chose the bad side because I'm conditioned with this setup. Much had to do with the primary going north of course but also the energy ejecting out west simply wasn't digging enough to give me much hope. I saw the ensembles that looked good but remained bearish. I'm still pretty bearish honestly. The broken record statement of subtle changes of strength and placement early on makes large changes down the line. I suppose if runs keep digging that energy and keep the primary from going north of us I'll get more encouraged each run. Redevelopers are terrible on the nerves. A forecasters nightmare at our latitude most of the time. Unless we have a strong stable block (ala 2010) but we don't here. Just a well timed/placed 50/50 and good confluence. If this does verify and break the dc streak it will be a fluke in the books for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 If they agree with the Euro, pretty much but I still wouldn't yet jump to a categorical forecast. Thanks Wes...look forward to your analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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