84 Hour NAM Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Call me an optimist but I like today's trend. Trend? I'd call today moving towards the middle by all models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I am 3 miles from Elkton, don't think those snow total are inflated, something about the area seems to make it do better. Could be the nearby hills (Iron Hill/Grey's Hill?) I don't even know where Elkton is. Right off I-95 at the MD/De border. Home of the $4 toll plaza. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I'd love to see 1 to 2" as I could still see this being a dusting dry slot screw job. I to 2 is doable with luck. I guess someone could see 3 if they get banding....I'm sure mapgirl or Phin will rise to the occasion. Right now I'd lean for seeing snow but am not that confident in the GFS forecast over that of the Euro. I think either is possible. Did you note how unbelieveably cold the GFS temps are by 12Z on Friday. This is the second staight run with really cold temps. I originally had a GFS graphic for 12Z in my post but backed off as based on the expected 850 temps they seemed cold. I would love to see that cold verify. If anyone in the region is lucky enough to see 2-3 inches with that kind of cold, that would be awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jums300 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Call me an optimist but I like today's trend. an optimist Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I would love to see that cold verify. If anyone in the region is lucky enough to see 2-3 inches with that kind of cold, that would be awesome Just imagine that is what happens in Minneapolis every week in the winter. Lucky bastids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Yeah pretty good stall/slowing there .. or conglomerating.. something. At the same time not sure I'd want to be on the fringes of good stuff. Things don't bust as easy up there but this is one that might if you have WSW flying and it just doesn't come together fast enough. All models are taking the ull energy and assoc precip through our area. It will prob dance with lp offshore and enhance somewhere. Could be here but more likely somewhere east of us. Nothing is set in stone yet. Ns vorts are notoriously tuff on models. We could get hosed and maybe even surpised. I think 1-3" 95 and east is a fair call at this lead. I hope Wes jackpots but we break the streak. One can dream.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I think at this point a 2" forecast is pretty bullish. Still two days away, but the past 24 hours haven't been good to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I'm not sure it's a spotter problem...I think some storms far NE really does make out well (no research basis whatsoever) (and banter I guess) Well again in good, deepening northern stream dominant systems usually you get a pretty good increase going NE. DC is in a bad spot there because we're often close but usually just a bit too far SW. I dunno the area at all topographically either so got me other than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I think at this point a 2" forecast is pretty bullish. Still two days away, but the past 24 hours haven't been good to us. I think for you yes but for Baltimore East 2" is probably a realistic call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 All models are taking the ull energy and assoc precip through our area. It will prob dance with lp offshore and enhance somewhere. Could be here but more likely somewhere east of us. Nothing is set in stone yet. Ns vorts are notoriously tuff on models. We could get hosed and maybe even surpised. I think 1-3" 95 and east is a fair call at this lead. I hope Wes jackpots but we break the streak. One can dream.... I hope we get an inch at DCA cause last week I talked about a period when the threat was higher than it's been and talked about cold...it would be nice to be right for a change in two week CWG outlook for a change. I'm much more confident in the cold than the snow. I could see us getting next to nothing the Euro or get lucky and be in an enhanced band though the latter is more likely over someone northeast or east of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 All models are taking the ull energy and assoc precip through our area. It will prob dance with lp offshore and enhance somewhere. Could be here but more likely somewhere east of us. Nothing is set in stone yet. Ns vorts are notoriously tuff on models. We could get hosed and maybe even surpised. I think 1-3" 95 and east is a fair call at this lead. I hope Wes jackpots but we break the streak. One can dream.... I know it's nowhere near as strong, but wasn't the Jan 2011 storm a result of backside 500 energy coming through? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I think at this point a 2" forecast is pretty bullish. Still two days away, but the past 24 hours haven't been good to us. They've been worse for you. This isn't your storm. Every other storm is, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I think for you yes but for Baltimore East 2" is probably a realistic call. I hope you're right. I'll be pulling for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 They've been worse for you. This isn't your storm. Every other storm is, though. My only chance was getting that low closer to the coast. It still may end up a little west of what's being shown right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I hope you're right. I'll be pulling for you. I used to pull for you as well, but you get slammed with every storm so i stopped pulling for you . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I think at this point a 2" forecast is pretty bullish. Still two days away, but the past 24 hours haven't been good to us. It really must be over if you're going negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 All models are taking the ull energy and assoc precip through our area. It will prob dance with lp offshore and enhance somewhere. Could be here but more likely somewhere east of us. Nothing is set in stone yet. Ns vorts are notoriously tuff on models. We could get hosed and maybe even surpised. I think 1-3" 95 and east is a fair call at this lead. I hope Wes jackpots but we break the streak. One can dream.... I have trouble thinking we will perform as well as models (or, the GFS) show with that backend stuff right now. We won't lose much to temps as it's freezing almost right after onset most spots probably but there's no good rates shown as of now (sure that can change and there could be embedded heavier)... I never like a ripping wind from the north/turning northwest either but it does work at times. 1-3" isn't impossible.. a lot of places can get that by accident in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 It really must be over if you're going negative. He is in a different spot than you. It is still a long-shot for you to get good snow but easier than it is for him. His best bet is to hope for some front-side overrunning deal with the primary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I know it's nowhere near as strong, but wasn't the Jan 2011 storm a result of backside 500 energy coming through?That thing was a bowling ball. Loaded with energy and dynamics and very favorable track for us. Thurs is a run of the mill vort with modest spin and lift. I've haven't been very interested in this storm until Sunday when a southern track became a reality. It's saving us from a guaranteed screwjob. Now we only have to deal with a possible screwjob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I have trouble thinking we will perform as well as models show with that backend stuff right now. We won't lose much to temps as it's freezing almost right after onset most spots probably but there's no good rates shown as of now (sure that can change and there could be embedded heavier)... I never like a ripping wind from the north/turning northwest either but it does work at times. 1-3" isn't impossible.. a lot of places can get that by accident in January. Yeah, with cold temps an extra 30 minutes of good snow can give you a quick inch. Someone in our posting area will do well assuming its not a total whiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Well again in good, deepening northern stream dominant systems usually you get a pretty good increase going NE. DC is in a bad spot there because we're often close but usually just a bit too far SW. I dunno the area at all topographically either so got me other than that. Yes indeed...I think part of it is just a board perception thing. There aren't many posters there and people aren't looking at the area that much when we talk about our area's typical "jackpots" etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pityflakes Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I bet this is how it used to be being a weenie in NC. Grew up in NC. It snows more there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Trend? I'd call today moving towards the middle by all modulation.te]Trend? I'd call today moving towards the middle by all models I think the last 12 hours are better than the overnights runs. And as Bob has said, this is going to end up a nowcasting situation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 It really must be over if you're going negative. Oh no, not negative. I've tried to be realistic. Yesterday's euro had me leaning toward stupid but I resisted. I'm thinking I'm looking at light snow showers at best. I will add the caveat that even if not likely, two days does allow Mother Nature time to show us we don't have it all figured out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I have trouble thinking we will perform as well as models (or, the GFS) show with that backend stuff right now. We won't lose much to temps as it's freezing almost right after onset most spots probably but there's no good rates shown as of now (sure that can change and there could be embedded heavier)... I never like a ripping wind from the north/turning northwest either but it does work at times. 1-3" isn't impossible.. a lot of places can get that by accident in January.It's fraught with peril but like you said in a previous post, there may be some conglomeration or congealing or whatever its called going on with the precip shields. At least with the gfs. Euro basically puked weenie guts today. This was never an ideal setup but getting whiffed totally doesn't seem like it's the most likely outcome. Possible? Heck yea. But I personally wouldn't go around saying we're getting nothing at this lead given all the various guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Grew up in NC. It snows more there. Only in the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 It's fraught with peril but like you said in a previous post, there may be some conglomeration or congealing or whatever its called going on with the precip shields. At least with the gfs. Euro basically puked weenie guts today. This was never an ideal setup but getting whiffed totally doesn't seem like it's the most likely outcome. Possible? Heck yea. But I personally wouldn't go around saying we're getting nothing at this lead given all the various guidance. I dunno.....Euro seems to be strikingly accurate when it predicts nada around here. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 It really must be over if you're going negative. You're in a bad spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 It's fraught with peril but like you said in a previous post, there may be some conglomeration or congealing or whatever its called going on with the precip shields. At least with the gfs. Euro basically puked weenie guts today. This was never an ideal setup but getting whiffed totally doesn't seem like it's the most likely outcome. Possible? Heck yea. But I personally wouldn't go around saying we're getting nothing at this lead given all the various guidance. I dunno if we'll get whiffed per se but a precip shield coming in out of the west fairly far removed from a surface low... eh. We'll need some luck. I think there is probably still more room for movement here than some situations but while the vort location pass is decent the orientation of the trough axis etc seems less than ideal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I don't even know where Elkton is. You never driven past the sign for it off I 95 when going to CT? Last exit in Maryland Exit 109. elevation of Eklton is a big 30 feet. Major lift goes on there I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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