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January 2/3 Event - Disco., Nowcasting, and Obs.


wxmeddler

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Comparing the 500mb chart from 12Z to 18Z, I like the change.  The southern stream energy is more elongate, a tiny bit stronger and and tiny bit more north.  I'm hoping this implies a little more GOM juice could make it into our region before the system scoots off the coast.

 

Also, the energy vort over Lake Winnepeg is a scotsch stronger, implying that the merging of the two streams could be 25 miles closer to the Mid-Atlantic yet still out over the fishes of the Western Atlantic Ocean.  I'm upgrading from "trace to one inch" all the way to "trace to 2.25 inches, lollypop over Manchester, Carroll County and NW Delaware".

 

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I liked the nicer Ian much better.

I thought his post was nice. He knows me well. The angle of the dark is good. HEAVIEST rates after we go below freezing. Wind will be whipping up 3" drifts in the morning. Roads will be white. Ratios will be high. I'm staying up till it shuts off. Biggest storm of 2014. Epic.

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Maybe even NE MD. Sucks that the track is so ene. Add a few degrees of N in there and it will be stubborn shutting off for someone out that way.

Yeah pretty good stall/slowing there .. or conglomerating.. something. At the same time not sure I'd want to be on the fringes of good stuff. Things don't bust as easy up there but this is one that might if you have WSW flying and it just doesn't come together fast enough.

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Yeah pretty good stall/slowing there .. or conglomerating.. something. At the same time not sure I'd want to be on the fringes of good stuff. Things don't bust as easy up there but this is one that might if you have WSW flying and it just doesn't come together fast enough.

Some dude in Elkton will report 4 inches.

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It is right next door to Elkins WV  ;) .

you made me look.

 

plenty of spotters lie/exaggerate. being trained by nws doesn't make you honest.  i think they try to cull the reports that are way out of hand but if you always go over by like 1" or so maybe it never gets noticed. 

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for the most part...the same...1-2, or 2-3" depending where you live

I'd love to see 1 to 2" as I could still see this being a dusting dry slot screw job. I to 2 is doable with luck.  I guess someone could see 3 if they get banding....I'm sure mapgirl or Phin will rise to the occasion.   Right now I'd lean for seeing snow but am not that confident in the GFS forecast over that of the Euro.  I think either is possible. 

 

  Did you note how unbelieveably cold the GFS temps are by 12Z on Friday.  This is the second staight run with really cold temps.  I originally had a GFS graphic for 12Z in my post but backed off as based on the expected 850 temps they seemed cold. 

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you made me look.

 

plenty of spotters lie/exaggerate. being trained by nws doesn't make you honest.  i think they try to cull the reports that are way out of hand but if you always go over by like 1" or so maybe it never gets noticed.

I would bet a good amount of spotters are 15...is there an age requirement?

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you made me look.

 

plenty of spotters lie/exaggerate. being trained by nws doesn't make you honest.  i think they try to cull the reports that are way out of hand but if you always go over by like 1" or so maybe it never gets noticed. 

Lol i figured you would. I don't know how Elkton always seems to report the most, from their location it does not seem plausible.

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