Ji Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 for the most part...the same...1-2, or 2-3" depending where you live this is like our 19th straight 1-2 inch storm we are tracking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Looks like tonight's runs will be even bigger--to at least keeping us from the full on whiff. Suffering... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 for the most part...the same...1-2, or 2-3" depending where you live I would lock in this solution in a heartbeat, the only unhappy people are the ones who had unrealistic expectations from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Comparing the 500mb chart from 12Z to 18Z, I like the change. The southern stream energy is more elongate, a tiny bit stronger and and tiny bit more north. I'm hoping this implies a little more GOM juice could make it into our region before the system scoots off the coast. Also, the energy vort over Lake Winnepeg is a scotsch stronger, implying that the merging of the two streams could be 25 miles closer to the Mid-Atlantic yet still out over the fishes of the Western Atlantic Ocean. I'm upgrading from "trace to one inch" all the way to "trace to 2.25 inches, lollypop over Manchester, Carroll County and NW Delaware". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I liked the nicer Ian much better. I thought his post was nice. He knows me well. The angle of the dark is good. HEAVIEST rates after we go below freezing. Wind will be whipping up 3" drifts in the morning. Roads will be white. Ratios will be high. I'm staying up till it shuts off. Biggest storm of 2014. Epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Bob Chill's take on 18z: It's basically identical to 12z. No whiff yet. Wonder if coastal DE can end up snagging something decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Wonder if coastal DE can end up snagging something decent. Maybe even NE MD. Sucks that the track is so ene. Add a few degrees of N in there and it will be stubborn shutting off for someone out that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I bet this is how it used to be being a weenie in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Maybe even NE MD. Sucks that the track is so ene. Add a few degrees of N in there and it will be stubborn shutting off for someone out that way. There could still be some banding surprises with this. We've seen shifts of 25-50 miles at less than 36 hours many times, especially with these really tight gradients. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Maybe even NE MD. Sucks that the track is so ene. Add a few degrees of N in there and it will be stubborn shutting off for someone out that way. Yeah pretty good stall/slowing there .. or conglomerating.. something. At the same time not sure I'd want to be on the fringes of good stuff. Things don't bust as easy up there but this is one that might if you have WSW flying and it just doesn't come together fast enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I bet this is how it used to be being a weenie in NC. Ji is now Brick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Yeah pretty good stall/slowing there .. or conglomerating.. something. At the same time not sure I'd want to be on the fringes of good stuff. Things don't bust as easy up there but this is one that might if you have WSW flying and it just doesn't come together fast enough. Some dude in Elkton will report 4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 And somehow, some way, mapgirl and sparky will report 4.5 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Some dude in Elkton will report 4 inches. Has there ever been a storm that Elkton wasn't the jackpot...serious question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 And somehow, some way, mapgirl and sparky will report 4.5 inches. You are in a better spot this time then they are it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 And somehow, some way, mapgirl and sparky will report 4.5 inches. I'm pretty sure sparky lives in another region. Sometimes it's sunny here and he posts pics of 8" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Has there ever been a storm that Elkton wasn't the jackpot...serious question I think only when Elkridge, MD, reported 38" in 2/5-6/10. Those elk... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Has there ever been a storm that Elkton wasn't the jackpot...serious question Shhh, blazeKing is lurking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Has there ever been a storm that Elkton wasn't the jackpot...serious question I am very interested in this, because while everyone talks about N. Central MD and N/W, Elkton dude always pops up with more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I don't even know where Elkton is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Maybe even NE MD. Sucks that the track is so ene. Add a few degrees of N in there and it will be stubborn shutting off for someone out that way. Mount Holly snowfall forecast for the upcoming "event" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I don't even know where Elkton is. It is right next door to Elkins WV . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I don't even know where Elkton is. NE MD, Cecil County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I don't even know where Elkton is. Far NE MD near DE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 It is right next door to Elkins WV . you made me look. plenty of spotters lie/exaggerate. being trained by nws doesn't make you honest. i think they try to cull the reports that are way out of hand but if you always go over by like 1" or so maybe it never gets noticed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 for the most part...the same...1-2, or 2-3" depending where you live I'd love to see 1 to 2" as I could still see this being a dusting dry slot screw job. I to 2 is doable with luck. I guess someone could see 3 if they get banding....I'm sure mapgirl or Phin will rise to the occasion. Right now I'd lean for seeing snow but am not that confident in the GFS forecast over that of the Euro. I think either is possible. Did you note how unbelieveably cold the GFS temps are by 12Z on Friday. This is the second staight run with really cold temps. I originally had a GFS graphic for 12Z in my post but backed off as based on the expected 850 temps they seemed cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 you made me look. plenty of spotters lie/exaggerate. being trained by nws doesn't make you honest. i think they try to cull the reports that are way out of hand but if you always go over by like 1" or so maybe it never gets noticed. I would bet a good amount of spotters are 15...is there an age requirement? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 you made me look. plenty of spotters lie/exaggerate. being trained by nws doesn't make you honest. i think they try to cull the reports that are way out of hand but if you always go over by like 1" or so maybe it never gets noticed. Lol i figured you would. I don't know how Elkton always seems to report the most, from their location it does not seem plausible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Call me an optimist but I like today's trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I'm not sure it's a spotter problem...I think some storms far NE really does make out well (no research basis whatsoever) (and banter I guess) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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