snow. Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Just covering all the bases, that's what they do, no need for pessimism. problem is they get more skillful as we get closer...even if we toss models - -using analogs,and pattern recognition the pattern doesn't really support a snow more than T-2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 problem is they get more skillful as we get closer...even if we toss models - -using analogs,and pattern recognition the pattern doesn't really support a snow more than T-2" Matt, what is sad is this is the best pattern we've had in terms of the Atlantic and we'd be doing good if we had a southern stream. Having to get a northern stream vort to dig south enough to hit us hard is uber tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Hopefully we can at least get the ground whitened. Then we can wake up to bitter cold and no sign of snow as sublimation makes it disappear overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Matt, what is sad is this is the best pattern we've had in terms of the Atlantic and we'd be doing good if we had a southern stream. Having to get a northern stream vort to dig south enough to hit us hard is uber tough. Yea, the ironic thing is it's trying to get going off obx but the flat flow out front doesn't do it for us. It wouldn't need to be all that different to allow for it to turn the corner but it is what it is. I'm glad I remained bearish. I'll enjoy whatever falls if it does. I think the 12z euro is a bit suspect killing off the backside so much. Could be right but other guidance argues against it a little. It's still an "ok" vort pass to get something to fall out of the sky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Matt, what is sad is this is the best pattern we've had in terms of the Atlantic and we'd be doing good if we had a southern stream. Having to get a northern stream vort to dig south enough to hit us hard is uber tough. yes...though I think what you said about an east based nao is true...the flow is too progressive and we end up with bagginess over iceland and ridginess off NF...so it is easy for the storm to scoot out even with the -NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 And below freezing with no sun. WinterWxLuvr likes this post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The CRAS is never right and is only talked of as a joke It was right for the "cold snow" in January 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 remember when the euro showed big storms and they happened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 It was right for the "cold snow" in January 2010. hey Phin, wouldn't it be sumthin if the cras was right and all other models were wrong lol .. all hail king cras!! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 remember when the euro showed big storms and they happened yeah...last February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 remember when the euro showed big storms and they happened yeah feb of 2010 for mid atl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 yeah...last Februarydidn't it slam you for a few runs in march? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 remember when the euro showed big storms and they happened Yeah, Ji, we do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 So with no discussion of next week anywhere, I assume that's a non-starter too? GFS shows something brewing around the 12th but that's a little far out to trust the models . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Hey, you forgot to post the latest JMA....shameful dispray. I'm riding this one like my prediction for a torchy Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 So with no discussion of next week anywhere, I assume that's a non-starter too? GFS shows something brewing around the 12th but that's a little far out to trust the models . yeah that's 13 days out, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 yeah that's 13 days out, lol Amazing math skills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The NAM has trended way north of 12z, If it means anything. (With the precip, not with the low.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The NAM has trended way north of 12z, If it means anything. (With the precip, not with the low.) more juice further north at 39hr than 45 hr on 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 more juice further north at 39hr than 45 hr on 12z Yeah NJ LI is probably going to get NAMed this run. Hopefully the GFS continues the trend, because I don't use the NAM to make actual forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Nam improved with the vort and came in line with the gfs. It's a good run for trending towards the gfs solution. That's about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 It's pretty warm though. Certainly not as good as the GFS but trending in the "right direction" (aka a dusting). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 You could tell by watching the upper maps that it was going to be better. It's amazing at how just a little deepening changed what the surface looked like. I don't think it's unreasonable to think it could end up digging just a bit more which would likely produce noticeable changes, especially for those along the 95 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Nam improved with the vort and came in line with the gfs. It's a good run for trending towards the gfs solution. That's about it. Every little bit of deepening tugs that low back west just a tad. This ain't over yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 NAM is kind of warm...about same amount of precip as SREFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Every little bit of deepening tugs that low back west just a tad. This ain't over yet. Classic progression would be for the 18z gfs to have an absurdly snowy solution, supported by the 0z nam...then the 0z gfs pulls back again, and the 0z euro is a complete whiff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Happy hour GooFuS is in 15 mins right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Happy hour GooFuS is in 15 mins right? 4:30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 4:30 Thanks. Could be the biggest run, er I mean disappointment of the day yet. I'm still holding on to my CRAS though. Haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Amazing math skills lol ty all those years of school really paid off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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