Ian Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Do it. But only if his extrapolation leads to a crappy outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 It's a better run and still wrong so I'll take it with a smile. Vort is a little more juiced when it matters and precip shield to the nw is more consolidated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I wanna strangle that front running low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 It's a better run and still wrong so I'll take it with a smile. Vort is a little more juiced when it matters and precip shield to the nw is more consolidated. it's very similar...if anything slightly drier for DC and slightly wetter for western burbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 waiting for these models to come out is like waiting for paint to dry....hey, wait a minute, I am waiting for paint to dry! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I wanna strangle that front running low Seriously though, the end result is not much different than 6z. It is a bit colder though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I wanna strangle that front running low i'd rather just sign on the dotted line for 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 It's a better run and still wrong so I'll take it with a smile. Vort is a little more juiced when it matters and precip shield to the nw is more consolidated. Why still wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 looking more like an arctic frontal passage squeezing out residuary moisture left behind with that anemic front runner/sw flow aloft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 it's very similar...if anything slightly drier for DC and slightly wetter for western burbs Just looking at hr 63 and comparing. It's a more organized precip shield and less ragged. Vort looked slightly better too. At least it wasn't a rug run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 i'd rather just sign on the dotted line for 2" Well yeah, who wouldn't. I'm just saying... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Why still wrong? Because we're 60 hours out and it's a messy system. Fine details won't be known until it's overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Just looking at hr 63 and comparing. It's a more organized precip shield and less ragged. Vort looked slightly better too. At least it wasn't a rug run. it did..I guess I shouldnt get caught up in minor QPF differences for MBY....it is a more uniform snow dist...1-2" for western burbs...2-3" for DCA to BWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Well, there's pretty rockin' PVA with the shortwave, but I'd like a little something extra if I'm going all in with the back end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 it did..I guess I shouldnt get caught up in minor QPF differences for MBY....it is a more uniform snow dist...1-2" for western burbs...2-3" for DCA to BWI Exactly what I was thinking. More uniform is a minor but important part of the run. And the chances of a total dryslot whiff are fading. That's probably the most important. I'll be damned if I track another complete non accum whiff. I like this hobby because it's challenging but come on man. Let's get some snow on the ground in the city man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 This run has good trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Still a super sketchy way to get snow here.. the vort pass is fine but it's wonky. I'm not going in until I see radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Sidenote: GFS tanks the temperatures. 10 degrees at 7a Friday in Washington with a wind coming in at 10-20. Brutal wind chill There's a thread for that! http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42200-january-2014-discussion-and-obs/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 While the GFS/Euro are different presentations at the sfc, the outcome remains essentially the same in terms of precip, temperatures, and snowfall. 1-2 for western LWX, 2-3 for eastern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Still a super sketchy way to get snow here.. the vort pass is fine but it's wonky. I'm not going in until I see radar. Yea, it's a strung out mess with a good vort pass. Enhancement on the backside is plausible. Probable? heh....eeek....oooph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Still a super sketchy way to get snow here.. the vort pass is fine but it's wonky. I'm not going in until I see radar. I think that is the right play..I think me and you are ok for some snow...but the dryslot might be under/improperly modeled...we could all strike out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Looking at the upper levels, if the trend keeps up, maybe another mini-low at the surface off Carolina? edit: ninja'd by not hitting F5 for the next timestep... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I think that is the right play..I think me and you are ok for some snow...but the dryslot might be under/improperly modeled...we could all strike out... Could just be noise, but it looks like 700mb is moister on the 12z run than the 6z even when we are being "dryslotted". Hopefully we won't lose to much of our precious precip to virga. Looking at the upper levels, if the trend keeps up, maybe another mini-low at the surface off Carolina? Yeah, it's the secondary/tail-end low that ends up giving us enough lift to wring out our whopping 0.2" of QPF. Gotta route for that to trend stronger and the front-end wave to weaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 That trailing low looks to be our weathermaker. If it could pop up a little closer to the coast, would that be what we would want? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I think that is the right play..I think me and you are ok for some snow...but the dryslot might be under/improperly modeled...we could all strike out... I like any vort that passes in the general vicinity of this one but it's so stretched and ugly I dunno. Even with the little trailing low we're going to have north to northwesterly winds while it's "snowing." I do think we can probably expect mood flakes to a dusting+.. maybe more, but that's tenuous for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I feel like this is probably the best we're going to do. .10 near DC, more as you head further east. That light green shading over MD/DC/Balt is just hilarious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Well if it's true that the vort has been sampled then we could be in trouble. They way it hits the coast and gets strung out is ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I feel like this is probably the best we're going to do. .10 near DC, more as you head further east. That light green shading over MD/DC/Balt is just hilarious. Probably an inch or 2 around DC...maybe 3 NE MD northern DE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I feel like this is probably the best we're going to do. .10 near DC, more as you head further east. That light green shading over MD/DC/Balt is just hilarious. If we were 40N we could bank on a north trend. They always happen.. for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 If we were 40N we could bank on a north trend. They always happen.. for SNE. Worst part is a north trend wouldn't even help us here. Atlantic Ocean FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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