eurojosh Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 It is about time you guys jumped on the bandwagon! I tried to start talking about this system 3 days ago in a thread called "New Years disturbance, thoughts, banter?". Mysteriously the thread was locked and had the replies moved out of it by someone obviously much wiser and more powerful than me!!! I will reiterate now what I said then - it is going to snow Thursday and Friday! Speaking from experience, I'd say wait until you have several hundred more posts before starting threads on events.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Speaking from experience, I'd say wait until you have several hundred more posts before starting threads on events.... I am a couple of thousand posts in and don't feel comfortable starting such a thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I can just post this. Waits this long to find agreement and this is what it settles on. Epic. You couldn't draw that any uglier for you and me lol...love me some dry slots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jums300 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I can just post this. Waits this long to find agreement and this is what it settles on. Epic. That looks pretty good. Can't tell exactly where it dry slots because when I zoom in, the quality gets lower. I'm pretty sure there's at least a few good hits there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 NAM continues to look pretty bad for us with the transfer to the coast occurring at our latitude. Thankfully, it's the NAM and a bit of an outlier relative to the other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The nam is looking better than 6z so far but still not great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 That looks pretty good. Can't tell exactly where it dry slots because when I zoom in, the quality gets lower. I'm pretty sure there's at least a few good hits there. Most show a pronounced dry slot over our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 NAM continues to look pretty bad for us with the transfer to the coast occurring at our latitude. Thankfully, it's the NAM and a bit of an outlier relative to the other guidance. Yeah, and you gotta wonder.....the NAM is usually the gift that keeps on giving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 That looks pretty good. Can't tell exactly where it dry slots because when I zoom in, the quality gets lower. I'm pretty sure there's at least a few good hits there. There's one good shot in there, and it's rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 NAM continues to look pretty bad for us with the transfer to the coast occurring at our latitude. Thankfully, it's the NAM and a bit of an outlier relative to the other guidance. I tried to find a positive in it. It did slow down at the upper levels just a touch. That's all I could find. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Yeah, and you gotta wonder.....the NAM is usually the gift that keeps on giving. Remember the rule of thumb. The NAM at 60-84hrs is only right when it doesn't show snow. At least precip-wise, it's inline with the SREF members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Last nights euro ens members were more bullish with # of members showing snow. Only 5 goose egged DCA. Mean is around 2.5". 26 showed 2+". Not going to mean much in a couple hours but figured I'd post it. If we can squeeze 2" up and down 95 and close in burbs I would consider this storm a pretty big win. I was never bullish on it so I'm really only concerned about a total whiff....which is in the cards....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The VA dry slot continues to be a hilarious feature on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Remember the rule of thumb. The NAM at 60-84hrs is only right when it doesn't show snow. At least precip-wise, it's inline with the SREF members. Isnt that normally the case with the SREFs? They are basically the NAM's MINI MEs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Last nights euro ens members were more bullish with # of members showing snow. Only 5 goose egged DCA. Mean is around 2.5". 26 showed 2+". Not going to mean much in a couple hours but figured I'd post it. If we can squeeze 2" up and down 95 and close in burbs I would consider this storm a pretty big win. I was never bullish on it so I'm really only concerned about a total whiff....which is in the cards....lol That's pretty encouraging. Widespread 2" would be a win from a Miller-B I'd say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Isnt that normally the case with the SREFs? They are basically the NAM's MINI MEs. Not necessarily. There can be outliers (and there are in the 9z SREFs). The SREFs are more than perturbed NAMs like the GEFS are perturbed initial conditions. There actually are some different models in there with different physics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Not necessarily. There can be outliers (and there are in the 9z SREFs). The SREFs are more than perturbed NAMs like the GEFS are perturbed initial conditions. There actually are some different models in there with different physics. If the NAM is right i will be more than perturbed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 That's pretty encouraging. Widespread 2" would be a win from a Miller-B I'd say. It is encouraging but the ensembles backed off from 12z. The mean in both precip and snow went down a little. 12z suite shouldn't have nearly as much spread as the last few days so upside potential will be capped pretty well. I don't think there can be lower downside potential unless you can have negative accums. Maybe our frost gets stolen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 It is encouraging but the ensembles backed off from 12z. The mean in both precip and snow went down a little. 12z suite shouldn't have nearly as much spread as the last few days so upside potential will be capped pretty well. I don't think there can be lower downside potential unless you can have negative accums. Maybe our frost gets stolen. Plenty of time for 12z today and 0z tonight to bring that range back to 0-T then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Plenty of time for 12z today and 0z tonight to bring that range back to 0-T then. We still can wring a little bit out of "the data isn't properly sampled" until at least 0z tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 We still can wring a little bit out of "the data isn't properly sampled" until at least 0z tonight. I don't know about that, the WPC says it will be sampled at 12Z. We better hope 12Z gives us a few inches or we may be fooked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Well, if it's sampled better now then the sw is a bit flatter and weaker as it dives down the rockies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 doesnt look as good as 6z so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 42hr looks juiced Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 i'd say marginally better than 6z through 51...btw...I am doing what I hate...extrapolating..so yes...I am a hypocrite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 i'd say marginally better than 6z through 51...btw...I am doing what I hate...extrapolating..so yes...I am a hypocrite i'm tempted to troll you but I wont Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 i'm tempted to troll you but I wont you should troll DC alexandria instead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 i'm tempted to troll you but I wont Do it. But only if his extrapolation leads to a crappy outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I really want to see the word BOOM soon I think we all do sorry for the banter I we see this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 you should troll DC alexandria instead I might. I only watch the Euro come out these days. I'm a reformed weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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