Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Pretty solid .4 up and down 95. With .5 near the bay and east. Imo- very good run. Dryslot isn't very apparent. I would be thrilled verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Pretty solid .4 up and down 95. With .5 near the bay and east. Imo- very good run. Dryslot isn't very apparent. I would be thrilled verbatim. Bob, how cold is the air after it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Do you have a link to the Euro snowfall map? I saw this on Twitter, it's from a pay site Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 how cold does it get after the "storm"? Still very cold, but at first glance looks a little more reasonable than earlier runs. Looks like BWI would be somewhere near 20 at 18z Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Seriously as much as you and Matt do for this subforum, i really hope you guys get at least 2" from this. For all the hours you guys spend looking at models it would stil be less than .10" per hour. No worries. I enjoy it like a logic puzzle. I love those things. It's fun regardless. Yea, I really want some dang snow but the mental exercise is really fun regardless. It's a fun hobby and never gets boring or easy. That's the true definition of a hobby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The euro's consistency has been garbage so far this winter season. So weird to say that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 No worries. I enjoy it like a logic puzzle. I love those things. It's fun regardless. Yea, I really want some dang snow but the mental exercise is really fun regardless. It's a fun hobby and never gets boring or easy. That's the true definition of a hobby. One day i aspire to know as much as you but it is doubtful since i have terrible ADHD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Bob, how cold is the air after it? Mid teens. Bwi around 15 give or take. Not epic but cold and I'm sure windy too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Mid teens. Bwi around 15 give or take. Not epic but cold and I'm sure windy too. In the past 5 years that would be epic. I cannot remember the last time i was 10 degrees in the middle of the day. I am usually 5 degrees colder than BWI. With wind chills that should put me below zero which is very rare during the daytime here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 In the past 5 years that would be epic. I cannot remember the last time i was 10 degrees in the middle of the day. I am usually 5 degrees colder than BWI. With wind chills that should put me below zero which is very rare during the daytime here. The text numbers have BWI in the low 20's during friday afternoon. Overnight lows into sat morning are not as cold as they were before either. Only drops us into mid teens. Still nothing to sneeze at but earlier runs had some areas flirting with zero sat. morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The text numbers have BWI in the low 20's during friday afternoon. Overnight lows into sat morning are not as cold as they were before either. Only drops us into mid teens. Still nothing to sneeze at but earlier runs had some areas flirting with zero sat. morning. That sounds more like it for a very cold airmass for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Do you have a link to the Euro snowfall map? Here is a wider shot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The EURO's 500 mb pattern stinks. Earlier comments in the thread about east-based blocking seem to be the story. The pattern is progressive/fast flow. The system is shredded out so most of the punch of precipitation wets the atmospheric column and then gets shut off as the system goes neg. tilt NE of here. It seems we are going to get a glancing blow with tight snow gradient and this will be a quick mover. More impressive is the cold shot after. Monday night into Tuesday morning, expect 850 mb temps. to run -24 deg. C to -28 deg. C out in Iowa/Ohio/Indiana and bleeding east. This translates to -5 deg. F for someone in the Mid-Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Wwxlvr would have posted this if he was awake. 6z nam... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welbane Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 GFS 06 z comes with significant improvement, still could get better. Salisbury is hammered, btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 GFS 06 z comes with significant improvement, still could get better. Salisbury is hammered, btw. Yep. Western edge of the .25" contour is now back to ~ I-95...higher amounts east as you noted (.50-ish at SBY). The 00Z run was closer to .10 area-wide for DC-Balt....25" SBY...and .50" OXB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Surface temps seem iffy for SBY. Low appears to be well offshore to be throwing back that much QPF in DC metro, and even if it looks better than 0z screwjob still seems on the table as one of the potential outcomes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 If it can turn to snow early enough it sure looks like DC on east has a shot at 2" +...euro and gfs agree...on the fringes back here but that's the life for clippers and dry slot storms back this way. My fingers are crossed for you dc guys...honest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Wwxlvr would have posted this if he was awake. 6z nam... That's all front running on the nam up north...no coastal or very little Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsnowman Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Yeah, the 6z NAM has nothing. The 6z GFS looks much better than last night - we are still in business. And Bob's Jan 5/6 storm is taking shape too ...could be a nice *little* one/two punch over the next week. I'll take anything, even if it is only a couple of inches each time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 2-4" or maybe 1-3"? Sorry but that's a home run in my book. We're aiming too high! Let's hope that holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 2-4" or maybe 1-3"? Sorry but that's a home run in my book. We're aiming too high! Let's hope that holds. The problem, frankly, is we aim for 2-4 or 1-3 and we end up with flurries or a car-topper. We appear to need to aim for 8-12 and hope it "only" ends up 2-4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Wwxlvr would have posted this if he was awake. 6z nam... I can just post this. Waits this long to find agreement and this is what it settles on. Epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I like where we are at this juncture. One more incremental improvement like the one shown on the 6Z GFS this morning and we'll all be in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
attml Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 It is about time you guys jumped on the bandwagon! I tried to start talking about this system 3 days ago in a thread called "New Years disturbance, thoughts, banter?". Mysteriously the thread was locked and had the replies moved out of it by someone obviously much wiser and more powerful than me!!! I will reiterate now what I said then - it is going to snow Thursday and Friday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I can just post this. Waits this long to find agreement and this is what it settles on. Epic. From what I can see on this little ass phone screen, that looks impressive. Beware the dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 From what I can see on this little ass phone screen, that looks impressive. I do like the agreement.. but the snow hole shows up on 10 out of the 12 maps... just funny, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 True. But can't tell what that is a screenshot of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 True. But can't tell what that is a screenshot of. 6z ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Ah, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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